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Conditional Return Smoothing in the Hedge Fund Industry

Author

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  • Bollen, Nicolas P. B.
  • Pool, Veronika K.

Abstract

We show that if true returns are independently distributed and a manager fully reports gains but delays reporting losses, then reported returns will feature conditional serial correlation. We use conditional serial correlation as a measure of conditional return smoothing. We estimate conditional serial correlation in a large sample of hedge funds. We find that the probability of observing conditional serial correlation is related to the volatility and magnitude of investor cash flows, consistent with conditional return smoothing in response to the risk of capital flight. We also present evidence that conditional serial correlation is a leading indicator of fraud.

Suggested Citation

  • Bollen, Nicolas P. B. & Pool, Veronika K., 2008. "Conditional Return Smoothing in the Hedge Fund Industry," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 43(02), pages 267-298, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:43:y:2008:i:02:p:267-298_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Serge Darolles & Christian Gouriéroux, 2013. "The Effects of Management and Provision Accounts on Hedge Fund Returns - Part II : The Loss Carry Forward Scheme," Working Papers 2013-23, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    2. Nicolas Bollen, 2011. "The financial crisis and hedge fund returns," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 117-135, July.
    3. Teo, Melvyn, 2011. "The liquidity risk of liquid hedge funds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(1), pages 24-44, April.
    4. repec:spr:reaccs:v:22:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s11142-017-9403-5 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Lu, Yan & Ray, Sugata & Teo, Melvyn, 2016. "Limited attention, marital events and hedge funds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(3), pages 607-624.
    6. Cici, Gjergji & Gibson, Scott & Merrick Jr., John J., 2011. "Missing the marks? Dispersion in corporate bond valuations across mutual funds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(1), pages 206-226, July.
    7. McKenzie, Michael & Satchell, Stephen & Wongwachara, Warapong, 2014. "Converting true returns into reported returns: A general theory of linear smoothing and anti-smoothing," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 215-229.
    8. Itzhak Ben-David & Francesco Franzoni & Augustin Landier & Rabih Moussawi, 2013. "Do Hedge Funds Manipulate Stock Prices?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(6), pages 2383-2434, December.
    9. McKenzie, Michael & Satchell, Stephen & Wongwachara, Warapong, 2012. "Nonlinearity and smoothing in venture capital performance data," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 782-795.
    10. Cici, Gjergji & Kempf, Alexander & Pütz, Alexander, 2011. "The valuation of hedge funds' equity positions," CFR Working Papers 10-15 [rev.], University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    11. Park, Hyuna, 2015. "Emerging market hedge funds in the United States," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 25-42.
    12. Mathias S. Kruttli & Andrew J. Patton & Tarun Ramadorai, 2015. "The Impact of Hedge Funds on Asset Markets," Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 5(2), pages 185-226.
    13. Cumming, Douglas & Dai, Na & Haß, Lars Helge & Schweizer, Denis, 2012. "Regulatory induced performance persistence: Evidence from hedge funds," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 1005-1022.
    14. Andrew J. Patton & Tarun Ramadorai & Michael Streatfield, 2015. "Change You Can Believe In? Hedge Fund Data Revisions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 70(3), pages 963-999, June.
    15. Agarwal, Vikas & Fos, Vyacheslav & Jiang, Wei, 2012. "Inferring reporting biases in hedge fund databases from hedge fund equity holdings," CFR Working Papers 10-08 [rev.], University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    16. Andrew Ang & Nicolas P.B. Bollen, 2010. "Locked Up by a Lockup: Valuing Liquidity as a Real Option," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 39(3), pages 1069-1096, September.
    17. Joenväärä, Juha & Kosowski, Robert, 2015. "Effect of Regulatory Constraints on Fund Performance: New Evidence from UCITS Hedge Funds," CEPR Discussion Papers 10577, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    18. Auer, Benjamin R. & Schuhmacher, Frank, 2013. "Robust evidence on the similarity of Sharpe ratio and drawdown-based hedge fund performance rankings," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 153-165.
    19. repec:fau:fauart:v:68:y:2018:i:2:p:165-199 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Wilkens, Marco & Yao, Juan & Jeyasreedharan, Nagaratnam & Oehler, Patrick, 2013. "Measuring the performance of hedge funds using two-stage peer group benchmarks," Working Papers 2013-18, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics, revised 01 Jun 2013.
    21. Mila Getmansky & Peter A. Lee & Andrew W. Lo, 2015. "Hedge Funds: A Dynamic Industry In Transition," NBER Working Papers 21449, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. repec:eee:jbfina:v:86:y:2018:i:c:p:224-239 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Dimmock, Stephen G. & Gerken, William C., 2012. "Predicting fraud by investment managers," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 153-173.
    24. El Kalak, Izidin & Azevedo, Alcino & Hudson, Robert, 2016. "Reviewing the hedge funds literature II: Hedge funds' returns and risk management characteristics," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 55-66.
    25. Benjamin Auer, 2013. "The low return distortion of the Sharpe ratio," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 27(3), pages 299-306, September.

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