IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jebusi/v84y2016icp95-108.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Spillover effects of continuous forbearance mortgages

Author

Listed:
  • Karamon, Kadiri
  • McManus, Douglas
  • Yannopoulos, Elias

Abstract

This paper examines the potential market impacts of continuous forbearance mortgages (CFM). This mortgage design embeds an insurance contract at origination that reduces the interest bearing balance to the smaller of the unpaid balance and an estimate of the current home value in exchange for an additional premium in the mortgage note rate. Thus the CFM mortgage payment is reduced in periods in which the estimated home value falls below the unpaid balance and is reduced fractionally based on the ratio of home value to loan balance. We consider a counterfactual in which all U.S. mortgages had this CFM feature at the start of 2006 and estimate the mortgage payment savings to borrowers at a loan level. Estimated mortgage payment savings are then used to estimate the effect on mortgage default. At the aggregate level, the sum of the mortgage payment savings at the state level is used to estimate potential impacts to regional employment.

Suggested Citation

  • Karamon, Kadiri & McManus, Douglas & Yannopoulos, Elias, 2016. "Spillover effects of continuous forbearance mortgages," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 95-108.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jebusi:v:84:y:2016:i:c:p:95-108
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconbus.2016.02.001
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0148619516000114
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jun Zhu & Jared Janowiak & Lu Ji & Kadiri Karamon & Douglas McManus, 2015. "The Effect of Mortgage Payment Reduction on Default: Evidence from the Home Affordable Refinance Program," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 43(4), pages 1035-1054, November.
    2. Janice Eberly & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2014. "Efficient Credit Policies in a Housing Debt Crisis," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 49(2 (Fall)), pages 73-136.
    3. Tracy, Joseph & Wright, Joshua, 2016. "Payment changes and default risk: The impact of refinancing on expected credit losses," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 60-70.
    4. Michael Rothschild & Joseph Stiglitz, 1976. "Equilibrium in Competitive Insurance Markets: An Essay on the Economics of Imperfect Information," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 90(4), pages 629-649.
    5. Modigliani, Franco., 1974. "Some economic implications of the indexing of financial assets with special reference to mortgages," Working papers 736-74., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
    6. Gwilym Pryce & Margaret Keoghan, 2002. "Unemployment insurance for mortgage borrowers: is it viable and does it cover those most in need?," European Journal of Housing Policy, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 2(1), pages 87-114, April.
    7. repec:ucp:bkecon:9780226081946 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Shiller Robert J., 2009. "Policies to Deal with the Implosion in the Mortgage Market," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 9(3), pages 1-25, March.
    9. Christopher Mayer & Edward Morrison & Tomasz Piskorski & Arpit Gupta, 2014. "Mortgage Modification and Strategic Behavior: Evidence from a Legal Settlement with Countrywide," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(9), pages 2830-2857, September.
    10. John Y. Campbell & João F. Cocco, 2015. "A Model of Mortgage Default," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 70(4), pages 1495-1554, August.
    11. Hancock Diana & Passmore Wayne, 2009. "Three Initiatives Enhancing the Mortgage Market and Promoting Financial Stability," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 9(3), pages 1-25, March.
    12. Jonathan A. Parker & Nicholas S. Souleles & David S. Johnson & Robert McClelland, 2013. "Consumer Spending and the Economic Stimulus Payments of 2008," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(6), pages 2530-2553, October.
    13. repec:aea:aejpol:v:9:y:2017:i:4:p:167-91 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Shiller, Robert J. & Wojakowski, Rafał M. & Ebrahim, M. Shahid & Shackleton, Mark B., 2013. "Mitigating financial fragility with Continuous Workout Mortgages," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 269-285.
    15. Ronel Elul & Nicholas S. Souleles & Souphala Chomsisengphet & Dennis Glennon & Robert Hunt, 2010. "What "Triggers" Mortgage Default?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 490-494, May.
    16. Brent W. Ambrose & Richard J. Buttimer Jr., 2012. "The Adjustable Balance Mortgage: Reducing the Value of the Put," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 40(3), pages 536-565, September.
    17. George A. Akerlof, 1970. "The Market for "Lemons": Quality Uncertainty and the Market Mechanism," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 84(3), pages 488-500.
    18. Andreas Fuster & Paul S. Willen, 2017. "Payment Size, Negative Equity, and Mortgage Default," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 167-191, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jebusi:v:84:y:2016:i:c:p:95-108. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jeconbus .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.