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A prospect-theory model of voter turnout

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  • Herrmann, Oliver
  • Jong-A-Pin, Richard
  • Schoonbeek, Lambert

Abstract

We incorporate prospect-theory preferences in a game-theoretic model to study voter turnout. We show that voter turnout is heavily affected by agents having subjective reference points with respect to the vote or abstain decision and their subjective probability weighting in the decision-making process. Using empirically based parameter values, we show that our model has lower prediction error than other game-theoretic models with standard expected-utility preferences. We also find that our model maintains desirable comparative statics effects and leads to higher turnout predictions in larger electorates.

Suggested Citation

  • Herrmann, Oliver & Jong-A-Pin, Richard & Schoonbeek, Lambert, 2019. "A prospect-theory model of voter turnout," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 362-373.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:168:y:2019:i:c:p:362-373
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2019.10.012
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    Cited by:

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    2. Kohei Daido & Tomoya Tajika, 2022. "Impact of Information Concerning the Popularity of Candidates on Loss-Averse Voters’ Abstention," Economic Theory Bulletin, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 10(1), pages 41-51, May.
    3. Joo, M. Hashemi & Parhizgari, A.M., 2021. "A behavioral explanation of credit ratings and leverage adjustments," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Voting behavior; Downsian paradox; Prospect-theory preferences;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior

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