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Fuzzy logic, trading uncertainty and technical trading

Author

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  • Gradojevic, Nikola
  • Gençay, Ramazan

Abstract

From the market microstructure perspective, technical analysis can be profitable when informed traders make systematic mistakes or when uninformed traders have predictable impacts on price. However, chartists face a considerable degree of trading uncertainty because technical indicators such as moving averages are essentially imperfect filters with a nonzero phase shift. Consequently, technical trading may result in erroneous trading recommendations and substantial losses. This paper presents an uncertainty reduction approach based on fuzzy logic that addresses two problems related to the uncertainty embedded in technical trading strategies: market timing and order size. The results of our high-frequency exercises show that ‘fuzzy technical indicators’ dominate standard moving average technical indicators and filter rules for the Euro-US dollar (EUR-USD) exchange rates, especially on high-volatility days.

Suggested Citation

  • Gradojevic, Nikola & Gençay, Ramazan, 2013. "Fuzzy logic, trading uncertainty and technical trading," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 578-586.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:37:y:2013:i:2:p:578-586
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2012.09.012
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Ülkü, Numan & Prodan, Eugeniu, 2013. "Drivers of technical trend-following rules' profitability in world stock markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 214-229.
    2. Caporin, Massimiliano & Ranaldo, Angelo & Santucci de Magistris, Paolo, 2013. "On the predictability of stock prices: A case for high and low prices," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5132-5146.
    3. Ni, Yensen & Liao, Yi-Ching & Huang, Paoyu, 2015. "MA trading rules, herding behaviors, and stock market overreaction," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 253-265.
    4. Cheema, Muhammad A. & Nartea, Gilbert V & Man, Yimei, 2017. "Cross-Sectional and Time-Series Momentum Returns and Market States," MPRA Paper 78989, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Ghandar, Adam & Michalewicz, Zbigniew & Zurbruegg, Ralf, 2016. "The relationship between model complexity and forecasting performance for computer intelligence optimization in finance," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 598-613.
    6. repec:eee:phsmap:v:482:y:2017:i:c:p:444-457 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Foreign exchange markets; Technical trading; Uncertainty; Fuzzy logic; Filtering;

    JEL classification:

    • G0 - Financial Economics - - General
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance

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