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Quantified moving average strategy of crude oil futures market based on fuzzy logic rules and genetic algorithms

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  • Liu, Xiaojia
  • An, Haizhong
  • Wang, Lijun
  • Guan, Qing

Abstract

The moving average strategy is a technical indicator that can generate trading signals to assist investment. While the trading signals tell the traders timing to buy or sell, the moving average cannot tell the trading volume, which is a crucial factor for investment. This paper proposes a fuzzy moving average strategy, in which the fuzzy logic rule is used to determine the strength of trading signals, i.e., the trading volume. To compose one fuzzy logic rule, we use four types of moving averages, the length of the moving average period, the fuzzy extent, and the recommend value. Ten fuzzy logic rules form a fuzzy set, which generates a rating level that decides the trading volume. In this process, we apply genetic algorithms to identify an optimal fuzzy logic rule set and utilize crude oil futures prices from the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) as the experiment data. Each experiment is repeated for 20 times. The results show that firstly the fuzzy moving average strategy can obtain a more stable rate of return than the moving average strategies. Secondly, holding amounts series is highly sensitive to price series. Thirdly, simple moving average methods are more efficient. Lastly, the fuzzy extents of extremely low, high, and very high are more popular. These results are helpful in investment decisions.

Suggested Citation

  • Liu, Xiaojia & An, Haizhong & Wang, Lijun & Guan, Qing, 2017. "Quantified moving average strategy of crude oil futures market based on fuzzy logic rules and genetic algorithms," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 482(C), pages 444-457.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:482:y:2017:i:c:p:444-457
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2017.04.082
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Janice How & Martin Ling & Peter Verhoeven, 2010. "Does size matter? A genetic programming approach to technical trading," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(2), pages 131-140.
    2. Liu, Xiaojia & An, Haizhong & Wang, Lijun & Jia, Xiaoliang, 2017. "An integrated approach to optimize moving average rules in the EUA futures market based on particle swarm optimization and genetic algorithms," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 185(P2), pages 1778-1787.
    3. Wang, Lijun & An, Haizhong & Liu, Xiaojia & Huang, Xuan, 2016. "Selecting dynamic moving average trading rules in the crude oil futures market using a genetic approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 1608-1618.
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    Cited by:

    1. Li, Jiang-Cheng & Leng, Na & Zhong, Guang-Yan & Wei, Yu & Peng, Jia-Sheng, 2020. "Safe marginal time of crude oil price via escape problem of econophysics," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    2. Taylor, Nick, 2017. "Timing strategy performance in the crude oil futures market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 480-492.

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