IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/complx/v2022y2022i1n5011174.html

Crude Oil Spot Price Forecasting Using Ivanov‐Based LASSO Vector Autoregression

Author

Listed:
  • Yishan Ding
  • Dongwei He
  • Jun Wu
  • Xiang Xu

Abstract

This paper proposes a forecasting methodology that investigates a set of different sparse structures for the vector autoregression (VAR) model using the Ivanov‐based least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) framework. The variant auxiliary problem principle method is used to solve the various Ivanov‐based LASSO‐VAR variants, which is supported by parallel computing with simple closed‐form iteration and linear convergence rate. A test case with ten crude oil spot prices is used to demonstrate the improvement in forecasting skills gained from exploring sparse structures. The proposed method outperformed the conventional vector autoregressive model.

Suggested Citation

  • Yishan Ding & Dongwei He & Jun Wu & Xiang Xu, 2022. "Crude Oil Spot Price Forecasting Using Ivanov‐Based LASSO Vector Autoregression," Complexity, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 2022(1).
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:complx:v:2022:y:2022:i:1:n:5011174
    DOI: 10.1155/2022/5011174
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1155/2022/5011174
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1155/2022/5011174?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Genc, Talat S., 2017. "OPEC and demand response to crude oil prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 238-246.
    2. Zhang, Yaojie & Ma, Feng & Wang, Yudong, 2019. "Forecasting crude oil prices with a large set of predictors: Can LASSO select powerful predictors?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 97-117.
    3. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Fabio Spagnolo & Nicola Spagnolo, 2017. "Macro News and Commodity Returns," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 68-80, January.
    4. Li, Jinchao & Zhu, Shaowen & Wu, Qianqian, 2019. "Monthly crude oil spot price forecasting using variational mode decomposition," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 240-253.
    5. Zhang, Xun & Yu, Lean & Wang, Shouyang & Lai, Kin Keung, 2009. "Estimating the impact of extreme events on crude oil price: An EMD-based event analysis method," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 768-778, September.
    6. Wu, Chunying & Wang, Jianzhou & Hao, Yan, 2022. "Deterministic and uncertainty crude oil price forecasting based on outlier detection and modified multi-objective optimization algorithm," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    7. Kaufmann, Robert K., 2011. "The role of market fundamentals and speculation in recent price changes for crude oil," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 105-115, January.
    8. Sam Mirmirani & Hsi Cheng Li, 2004. "A Comparison Of Var And Neural Networks With Genetic Algorithm In Forecasting Price Of Oil," Advances in Econometrics, in: Applications of Artificial Intelligence in Finance and Economics, pages 203-223, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    9. Lutz Kilian, 2009. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1053-1069, June.
    10. He, Kaijian & Yu, Lean & Lai, Kin Keung, 2012. "Crude oil price analysis and forecasting using wavelet decomposed ensemble model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 564-574.
    11. Sun, Jingyun & Zhao, Panpan & Sun, Shaolong, 2022. "A new secondary decomposition-reconstruction-ensemble approach for crude oil price forecasting," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    12. Kaufmann, Robert K. & Ullman, Ben, 2009. "Oil prices, speculation, and fundamentals: Interpreting causal relations among spot and futures prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 550-558, July.
    13. Chiroma, Haruna & Abdulkareem, Sameem & Herawan, Tutut, 2015. "Evolutionary Neural Network model for West Texas Intermediate crude oil price prediction," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 266-273.
    14. Shambora, William E. & Rossiter, Rosemary, 2007. "Are there exploitable inefficiencies in the futures market for oil?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 18-27, January.
    15. Jammazi, Rania & Aloui, Chaker, 2012. "Crude oil price forecasting: Experimental evidence from wavelet decomposition and neural network modeling," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 828-841.
    16. Wen, Xiaoqian & Wei, Yu & Huang, Dengshi, 2012. "Measuring contagion between energy market and stock market during financial crisis: A copula approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1435-1446.
    17. Abramson, Bruce & Finizza, Anthony, 1991. "Using belief networks to forecast oil prices," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 299-315, November.
    18. Barbaglia, Luca & Croux, Christophe & Wilms, Ines, 2020. "Volatility spillovers in commodity markets: A large t-vector autoregressive approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    19. Ding, Yishan, 2018. "A novel decompose-ensemble methodology with AIC-ANN approach for crude oil forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 328-336.
    20. Lanza, Alessandro & Manera, Matteo & Giovannini, Massimo, 2005. "Modeling and forecasting cointegrated relationships among heavy oil and product prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 831-848, November.
    21. Morana, Claudio, 2001. "A semiparametric approach to short-term oil price forecasting," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 325-338, May.
    22. Jiang, He & Hu, Weiqiang & Xiao, Ling & Dong, Yao, 2022. "A decomposition ensemble based deep learning approach for crude oil price forecasting," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    23. Hou, Aijun & Suardi, Sandy, 2012. "A nonparametric GARCH model of crude oil price return volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 618-626.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zheng, Li & Sun, Yuying & Wang, Shouyang, 2024. "A novel interval-based hybrid framework for crude oil price forecasting and trading," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    2. Ding, Yishan, 2018. "A novel decompose-ensemble methodology with AIC-ANN approach for crude oil forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 328-336.
    3. Cheng, Fangzheng & Li, Tian & Wei, Yi-ming & Fan, Tijun, 2019. "The VEC-NAR model for short-term forecasting of oil prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 656-667.
    4. Drachal, Krzysztof, 2016. "Forecasting spot oil price in a dynamic model averaging framework — Have the determinants changed over time?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 35-46.
    5. Wang, Minggang & Zhao, Longfeng & Du, Ruijin & Wang, Chao & Chen, Lin & Tian, Lixin & Eugene Stanley, H., 2018. "A novel hybrid method of forecasting crude oil prices using complex network science and artificial intelligence algorithms," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 220(C), pages 480-495.
    6. Yu, Lean & Wang, Zishu & Tang, Ling, 2015. "A decomposition–ensemble model with data-characteristic-driven reconstruction for crude oil price forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 251-267.
    7. Tan, Jinghua & Li, Zhixi & Zhang, Chuanhui & Shi, Long & Jiang, Yuansheng, 2024. "A multiscale time-series decomposition learning for crude oil price forecasting," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    8. Lin, Ling & Jiang, Yong & Xiao, Helu & Zhou, Zhongbao, 2020. "Crude oil price forecasting based on a novel hybrid long memory GARCH-M and wavelet analysis model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 543(C).
    9. Lang, Korbinian & Auer, Benjamin R., 2020. "The economic and financial properties of crude oil: A review," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    10. Jiang Wu & Yu Chen & Tengfei Zhou & Taiyong Li, 2019. "An Adaptive Hybrid Learning Paradigm Integrating CEEMD, ARIMA and SBL for Crude Oil Price Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-23, April.
    11. Hasnain Iftikhar & Aimel Zafar & Josue E. Turpo-Chaparro & Paulo Canas Rodrigues & Javier Linkolk López-Gonzales, 2023. "Forecasting Day-Ahead Brent Crude Oil Prices Using Hybrid Combinations of Time Series Models," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(16), pages 1-19, August.
    12. Wen, Danyan & Liu, Li & Wang, Yudong & Zhang, Yaojie, 2022. "Forecasting crude oil market returns: Enhanced moving average technical indicators," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    13. Mingming, Tang & Jinliang, Zhang, 2012. "A multiple adaptive wavelet recurrent neural network model to analyze crude oil prices," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 64(4), pages 275-286.
    14. Taiyong Li & Zhenda Hu & Yanchi Jia & Jiang Wu & Yingrui Zhou, 2018. "Forecasting Crude Oil Prices Using Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition and Sparse Bayesian Learning," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-23, July.
    15. Turgut Yokuş, 2024. "Early Warning Systems for World Energy Crises," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(6), pages 1-18, March.
    16. Manel Hamdi & Chaker Aloui, 2015. "Forecasting Crude Oil Price Using Artificial Neural Networks: A Literature Survey," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 35(2), pages 1339-1359.
    17. Chai, Jian & Lu, Quanying & Hu, Yi & Wang, Shouyang & Lai, Kin Keung & Liu, Hongtao, 2018. "Analysis and Bayes statistical probability inference of crude oil price change point," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 271-283.
    18. Martina, Esteban & Rodriguez, Eduardo & Escarela-Perez, Rafael & Alvarez-Ramirez, Jose, 2011. "Multiscale entropy analysis of crude oil price dynamics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 936-947, September.
    19. Zhang, Tingting & Tang, Zhenpeng & Wu, Junchuan & Du, Xiaoxu & Chen, Kaijie, 2021. "Multi-step-ahead crude oil price forecasting based on two-layer decomposition technique and extreme learning machine optimized by the particle swarm optimization algorithm," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    20. Li, Jinchao & Zhu, Shaowen & Wu, Qianqian, 2019. "Monthly crude oil spot price forecasting using variational mode decomposition," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 240-253.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:complx:v:2022:y:2022:i:1:n:5011174. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/8503 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.