Crude oil price forecasting: Experimental evidence from wavelet decomposition and neural network modeling
Oil price prediction has usually proved to be an intractable task due to the intrinsic complexity of oil market mechanism. In addition, the recent oil shock and its consequences relaunch the debate on understanding the behavior underlying the expected oil prices. Combining the dynamic properties of multilayer back propagation neural network and the recent Harr A trous wavelet decomposition, a Hybrid model HTW-MPNN is implemented to achieve prominent prediction of crude oil price. While recent studies focus on the determination of the best forecasting model by comparing various neural architectures or applying several decomposition techniques to the ANN, the new insight of this paper is to target the issue of the transfer function selection providing robust simulations on both in sample and out of sample basis. Based on the work of Yonaba, H., Anctil, F., and Fortin, V. (2010) “Comparing Sigmoid Transfer Functions for Neural Network Multistep Ahead Stream flow forecasting”. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, April, 275–283, we use three variants of activation function namely sigmoid, bipolar sigmoid and hyperbolic tangent in order to test the model's flexibility. Furthermore, the forecasting robustness is checked through several levels of input–hidden nodes. Comparatively, results of HTW-MBPNN perform better than the conventional BPNN. Our conclusions add a major attribute to the previous studies corroborating the Occam razor's principle, especially when simulations are constructed through training and testing phases simultaneously. Finally, more eligible forecasting power is found according to the wavelet oil price signal which appears to be the closest to the real anticipations of future oil price fluctuations.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Siddhivinayak Kulkarni & Imad Haidar, 2009. "Forecasting Model for Crude Oil Price Using Artificial Neural Networks and Commodity Futures Prices," Papers 0906.4838, arXiv.org.
- Dunis, Christian L & Huang, Xuehuan, 2002. "Forecasting and Trading Currency Volatility: An Application of Recurrent Neural Regression and Model Combination," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(5), pages 317-54, August.
- Jammazi, Rania & Aloui, Chaker, 2010. "Wavelet decomposition and regime shifts: Assessing the effects of crude oil shocks on stock market returns," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1415-1435, March.
- Bernabe, Araceli & Martina, Esteban & Alvarez-Ramirez, Jose & Ibarra-Valdez, Carlos, 2004. "A multi-model approach for describing crude oil price dynamics," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 338(3), pages 567-584.
- Malik, Farooq & Nasereddin, Mahdi, 2006. "Forecasting output using oil prices: A cascaded artificial neural network approach," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 168-180.
- Zhang, Guoqiang & Eddy Patuwo, B. & Y. Hu, Michael, 1998. "Forecasting with artificial neural networks:: The state of the art," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 35-62, March.
- Nason, G.P. & von Sachs, R., 1999. "Wavelets in Time Series Analysis," Papers 9901, Catholique de Louvain - Institut de statistique.
- Yang, C. W. & Hwang, M. J. & Huang, B. N., 2002. "An analysis of factors affecting price volatility of the US oil market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 107-119, March.
- Yu, Lean & Wang, Shouyang & Lai, Kin Keung, 2008. "Forecasting crude oil price with an EMD-based neural network ensemble learning paradigm," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2623-2635, September.
- Shambora, William E. & Rossiter, Rosemary, 2007. "Are there exploitable inefficiencies in the futures market for oil?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 18-27, January.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:34:y:2012:i:3:p:828-841. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.