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A systematic approach to multi-period stress testing of portfolio credit risk

  • Breuer, Thomas
  • Jandačka, Martin
  • Mencía, Javier
  • Summer, Martin

We propose a new method for analysing multi-period stress scenarios for portfolio credit risk more systematically than in current macro stress tests. The plausibility of a scenario is quantified by its distance from an average scenario. For a given level of plausibility, we search systematically for the most adverse scenario. This ensures that no plausible scenario will be missed. We show how this method can be applied to some models already in use by practitioners. While worst case search requires numerical optimisation we show that we can work with reasonably good linear approximations to the portfolio loss function. This makes systematic multi-period stress testing computationally efficient and easy to implement. Applying our approach to data from the Spanish loan register we show that, compared to standard stress test procedures, our method identifies more harmful scenarios that are equally plausible.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Banking & Finance.

Volume (Year): 36 (2012)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 332-340

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:36:y:2012:i:2:p:332-340
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  1. Claudio Borio & Claudio Mathias Drehmann, 2009. "Towards an operational framework for financial stability: "fuzzy" measurement and its consequences," BIS Working Papers 284, Bank for International Settlements.
  2. Philippe Artzner & Freddy Delbaen & Jean-Marc Eber & David Heath, 1999. "Coherent Measures of Risk," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 203-228.
  3. Til Schuermann & Björn-Jakob Treutler & Scott M. Weiner & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2003. "Macroeconomic Dynamics and Credit Risk: A Global Perspective," CESifo Working Paper Series 995, CESifo Group Munich.
  4. Rodrigo Alfaro & Mathias Drehmann, 2009. "Macro stress tests and crises: what can we learn?," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
  5. Gordy, Michael B., 2003. "A risk-factor model foundation for ratings-based bank capital rules," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 199-232, July.
  6. Miroslav Misina & David Tessier & Shubhasis Dey, 2006. "Stress Testing the Corporate Loans Portfolio of the Canadian Banking Sector," Working Papers 06-47, Bank of Canada.
  7. Thomas Breuer & Martin Jandacka & Klaus Rheinberger & Martin Summer, 2009. "How to find plausible, severe, and useful stress scenarios," Working Papers 150, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  8. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-70, May.
  9. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June.
  10. Virolainen , Kimmo, 2004. "Macro stress testing with a macroeconomic credit risk model for Finland," Research Discussion Papers 18/2004, Bank of Finland.
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