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A systematic approach to multi-period stress testing of portfolio credit risk

Author

Listed:
  • Thomas Breuer

    () (Research Centre PPE)

  • Martin Jandačka

    () (Research Centre PPE)

  • Javier Mencía

    () (Banco de España)

  • Martin Summer

    () (Oesterreichische Nationalbank)

Abstract

We propose a new method for analysing multiperiod stress scenarios for portfolio credit risk more systematically than in the current practice of macro stress testing. Our method quantifies the plausibility of scenarios by considering the distance of the stress scenario from an average scenario. For a given level of plausibility our method searches systematically for the most adverse scenario for the given portfolio. This method therefore gives a formal criterion for judging the plausibility of scenarios and it makes sure that no plausible scenario will be missed. We show how this method can be applied to a range of models already in use among stress testing practitioners. While worst case search requires numerical optimisation we show that for practically relevant cases we can work with reasonably good linear approximations to the portfolio loss function that make the method computationally very efficient and easy to implement. Applying our approach to data from the Spanish loan register and using a portfolio credit risk model we show that, compared to standard stress test procedures, our method identifies more harmful scenarios that are equally plausible.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas Breuer & Martin Jandačka & Javier Mencía & Martin Summer, 2010. "A systematic approach to multi-period stress testing of portfolio credit risk," Working Papers 1018, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
  • Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:1018
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Schuermann, Til & Treutler, Bjorn-Jakob & Weiner, Scott M., 2006. "Macroeconomic Dynamics and Credit Risk: A Global Perspective," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(5), pages 1211-1261, August.
    2. Claudio Borio & Mathias Drehmann, 2011. "Toward an Operational Framework for Financial Stability: “Fuzzy” Measurement and Its Consequences," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series,in: Rodrigo Alfaro (ed.), Financial Stability, Monetary Policy, and Central Banking, edition 1, volume 15, chapter 4, pages 063-123 Central Bank of Chile.
    3. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    4. Rodrigo Alfaro & Mathias Drehmann, 2009. "Macro stress tests and crises: what can we learn?," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    5. Thomas Breuer & Martin Jandacka & Klaus Rheinberger & Martin Summer, 2009. "How to Find Plausible, Severe and Useful Stress Scenarios," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 5(3), pages 205-224, September.
    6. Gordy, Michael B., 2003. "A risk-factor model foundation for ratings-based bank capital rules," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 199-232, July.
    7. Philippe Artzner & Freddy Delbaen & Jean-Marc Eber & David Heath, 1999. "Coherent Measures of Risk," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 203-228.
    8. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    9. Miroslav Misina & David Tessier & Shubhasis Dey, 2006. "Stress Testing the Corporate Loans Portfolio of the Canadian Banking Sector," Staff Working Papers 06-47, Bank of Canada.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Grundke, Peter & Pliszka, Kamil, 2015. "A macroeconomic reverse stress test," Discussion Papers 30/2015, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    2. Michal Franta & Jozef Barunik & Roman Horvath & Katerina Smidkova, 2011. "Are Bayesian Fan Charts Useful for Central Banks? Uncertainty, Forecasting, and Financial Stability Stress Tests," Working Papers 2011/10, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
    3. Breuer, Thomas & Csiszár, Imre, 2013. "Systematic stress tests with entropic plausibility constraints," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 1552-1559.
    4. Boucher, Christophe M. & Daníelsson, Jón & Kouontchou, Patrick S. & Maillet, Bertrand B., 2014. "Risk models-at-risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 72-92.
    5. Pierluigi Bologna & Anatoli Segura, 2016. "Integrating stress tests within the Basel III capital framework: a macroprudentially coherent approach," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 360, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    6. repec:eee:jbfina:v:81:y:2017:i:c:p:105-113 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Darne, O. & Levy-Rueff, O. & Pop, A., 2013. "Calibrating Initial Shocks in Bank Stress Test Scenarios: An Outlier Detection Based Approach," Working papers 426, Banque de France.
    8. repec:kap:rqfnac:v:50:y:2018:i:4:d:10.1007_s11156-017-0655-8 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Amira Dridi, 2015. "On Reverse Stress Testing for Worst Case Scenarios: An Application to Credit Risk Modeling of Tunisian Economic Sectors," International Journal of Economic Sciences, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences, vol. 4(2), pages 40-56, June.
    10. Azamat Abdymomunov & Sharon Blei & Bakhodir Ergashev, 2015. "Integrating Stress Scenarios into Risk Quantification Models," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 47(1), pages 57-79, February.
    11. Michal Franta & Jozef Baruník & Roman Horváth & Katerina Smídková, 2014. "Are Bayesian Fan Charts Useful? The Effect of Zero Lower Bound and Evaluation of Financial Stability Stress Tests," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(1), pages 159-188, March.
    12. De Genaro, Alan, 2016. "Systematic multi-period stress scenarios with an application to CCP risk management," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 119-134.
    13. Bellotti, Tony & Crook, Jonathan, 2013. "Forecasting and stress testing credit card default using dynamic models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 563-574.
    14. Bellotti, Tony & Crook, Jonathan, 2011. "Forecasting and Stress Testing Credit Card Default Using Dynamic Models," Working Papers 11-34, University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School, Weiss Center.
    15. Patrick Van Roy & Stijn Ferrari & Cristina Vespro, 2018. "Sensitivity of credit risk stress test results: Modelling issues with an application to Belgium," Working Paper Research 338, National Bank of Belgium.
    16. repec:eee:quaeco:v:68:y:2018:i:c:p:237-253 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. McNeil, Alexander J. & Smith, Andrew D., 2012. "Multivariate stress scenarios and solvency," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 299-308.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stress Testing; Credit Risk; Worst Case Search; Maximum Loss;

    JEL classification:

    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General

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