IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jbfina/v180y2025ics0378426625001761.html

The stock market impact of volatility hedging: Evidence from end-of-day trading by VIX ETPs

Author

Listed:
  • Bangsgaard, Christine
  • Kokholm, Thomas

Abstract

VIX futures market makers can hedge their volatility exposure by trading SPX options and futures. We use the daily VIX futures demand by VIX ETP issuers as an estimate of the end-of-day shock to market makers’ net position and find that the demand impacts the SPX futures market in the direction consistent with the VIX futures hedging channel. The VIX ETP demand is a strong predictor of the end-of-day SPX futures return in-sample and out-of-sample. We find evidence of a subsequent reversal, suggesting that VIX futures hedging activities can move the SPX futures market for reasons unrelated to price discovery.

Suggested Citation

  • Bangsgaard, Christine & Kokholm, Thomas, 2025. "The stock market impact of volatility hedging: Evidence from end-of-day trading by VIX ETPs," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:180:y:2025:i:c:s0378426625001761
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107556
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378426625001761
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107556?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sanford J. Grossman & Merton H. Miller, 1988. "Liquidity and Market Structure," NBER Working Papers 2641, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Bogousslavsky, Vincent & Muravyev, Dmitriy, 2023. "Who trades at the close? Implications for price discovery and liquidity," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    3. Óscar Carchano & Ángel Pardo, 2009. "Rolling over stock index futures contracts," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(7), pages 684-694, July.
    4. Karamfil Todorov, 2024. "When passive funds affect prices: evidence from volatility and commodity ETFs," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 28(3), pages 831-863.
    5. John Y. Campbell & Samuel B. Thompson, 2008. "Predicting Excess Stock Returns Out of Sample: Can Anything Beat the Historical Average?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1509-1531, July.
    6. Itzhak Ben‐David & Francesco Franzoni & Rabih Moussawi, 2018. "Do ETFs Increase Volatility?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 73(6), pages 2471-2535, December.
    7. Chen, Yu-Lun & Tsai, Wei-Che, 2017. "Determinants of price discovery in the VIX futures market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 59-73.
    8. Gao, Lei & Han, Yufeng & Zhengzi Li, Sophia & Zhou, Guofu, 2018. "Market intraday momentum," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(2), pages 394-414.
    9. Bondarenko, Oleg & Muravyev, Dmitriy, 2023. "Market Return Around the Clock: A Puzzle," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 58(3), pages 939-967, May.
    10. Ivo Welch & Amit Goyal, 2008. "A Comprehensive Look at The Empirical Performance of Equity Premium Prediction," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1455-1508, July.
    11. repec:bla:jfinan:v:43:y:1988:i:3:p:617-37 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Jinghong Shu & Jin E. Zhang, 2012. "Causality in the VIX futures market," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(1), pages 24-46, January.
    13. Nicolae Garleanu & Lasse Heje Pedersen & Allen M. Poteshman, 2009. "Demand-Based Option Pricing," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(10), pages 4259-4299, October.
    14. Jennifer Conrad & Robert F. Dittmar & Eric Ghysels, 2013. "Ex Ante Skewness and Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(1), pages 85-124, February.
    15. Bart Frijns & Alireza Tourani‐Rad & Robert I. Webb, 2016. "On the Intraday Relation Between the VIX and its Futures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(9), pages 870-886, September.
    16. Nicolas P.B. Bollen & Michael J. O'Neill & Robert E. Whaley, 2017. "Tail Wags Dog: Intraday Price Discovery in VIX Markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(5), pages 431-451, May.
    17. Patrick Augustin & Ing-Haw Cheng & Ludovic Van den Bergen, 2021. "Volmageddon and the Failure of Short Volatility Products," Financial Analysts Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 77(3), pages 35-51, July.
    18. Gurdip Bakshi & Nikunj Kapadia & Dilip Madan, 2003. "Stock Return Characteristics, Skew Laws, and the Differential Pricing of Individual Equity Options," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(1), pages 101-143.
    19. Adrian Fernandez‐Perez & Bart Frijns & Alireza Tourani‐Rad & Robert I. Webb, 2019. "Does increased hedging lead to decreased price efficiency? The case of VIX ETPs and VIX futures," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 54(3), pages 477-500, August.
    20. Marco Avellaneda & Michael Lipkin, 2003. "A market-induced mechanism for stock pinning," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(6), pages 417-425.
    21. Baltussen, Guido & van Bekkum, Sjoerd & Da, Zhi, 2019. "Indexing and stock market serial dependence around the world," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 26-48.
    22. Baltussen, Guido & Da, Zhi & Lammers, Sten & Martens, Martin, 2021. "Hedging demand and market intraday momentum," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 377-403.
    23. Pauline Shum & Walid Hejazi & Edgar Haryanto & Arthur Rodier, 2016. "Intraday Share Price Volatility and Leveraged ETF Rebalancing," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 20(6), pages 2379-2409.
    24. De Rossi, Giuliano & Steliaros, Michael, 2022. "The Shift from Active to Passive and its Effect on Intraday Stock Dynamics," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    25. Golez, Benjamin & Jackwerth, Jens Carsten, 2012. "Pinning in the S&P 500 futures," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(3), pages 566-585.
    26. Jacobs, Kris & Mai, Anh Thu, 2024. "The role of intermediaries in derivatives markets: Evidence from VIX options," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    27. Ho, Thomas & Stoll, Hans R., 1981. "Optimal dealer pricing under transactions and return uncertainty," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 47-73, March.
    28. Hu, Jianfeng, 2014. "Does option trading convey stock price information?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(3), pages 625-645.
    29. Michael J. O'Neill & Robert E. Whaley, 2023. "Effects of nondiscretionary trading on futures prices," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(1), pages 33-68, January.
    30. Bujar Huskaj & Lars L. Nordén, 2015. "Two Order Books are Better than One? Trading at Settlement (TAS) in VIX Futures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(6), pages 506-521, June.
    31. Sophie X Ni & Neil D Pearson & Allen M Poteshman & Joshua White & Andrew Karolyi, 2021. "Does Option Trading Have a Pervasive Impact on Underlying Stock Prices? [Equity market impact]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(4), pages 1952-1986.
    32. Chang, Bo Young & Christoffersen, Peter & Jacobs, Kris, 2013. "Market skewness risk and the cross section of stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(1), pages 46-68.
    33. Vineer Bhansali & Larry Harris, 2018. "Everybody’s Doing It: Short Volatility Strategies and Shadow Financial Insurers," Financial Analysts Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 74(2), pages 12-23, April.
    34. Xiaoyan Ni, Sophie & Pearson, Neil D. & Poteshman, Allen M., 2005. "Stock price clustering on option expiration dates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 49-87, October.
    35. Joshua D. Coval & Tyler Shumway, 2001. "Expected Option Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(3), pages 983-1009, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Anders Merrild Posselt, 2022. "Dynamics in the VIX complex," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(9), pages 1665-1687, September.
    2. Bangsgaard, Christine & Kokholm, Thomas, 2024. "The lead–lag relation between VIX futures and SPX futures," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    3. Ruan, Xinfeng & Zhang, Jin E., 2018. "Risk-neutral moments in the crude oil market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 583-600.
    4. Gagnon, Marie-Hélène & Power, Gabriel J. & Toupin, Dominique, 2023. "The sum of all fears: Forecasting international returns using option-implied risk measures," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    5. Yi‐Wei Chuang & Wei‐Che Tsai & Ming‐Hung Wu, 2020. "The impact of net buying pressure on VIX option prices," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(2), pages 209-227, February.
    6. Ruan, Xinfeng & Zhang, Jin E., 2019. "Moment spreads in the energy market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 598-609.
    7. Jian Chen & Yangshu Liu, 2020. "Bid and ask prices of index put options: Which predicts the underlying stock returns?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(9), pages 1337-1353, September.
    8. Yan-Hong Yang & Ying-Hui Shao, 2019. "Time-dependent lead-lag relationships between the VIX and VIX futures markets," Papers 1910.13729, arXiv.org.
    9. Konstantinidi, Eirini & Skiadopoulos, George, 2016. "How does the market variance risk premium vary over time? Evidence from S&P 500 variance swap investment returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 62-75.
    10. Apergis, Nicholas & Mustafa, Ghulam & Malik, Shafaq, 2023. "The role of the COVID-19 pandemic in US market volatility: Evidence from the VIX index," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 27-35.
    11. Yang, Yan-Hong & Shao, Ying-Hui, 2020. "Time-dependent lead-lag relationships between the VIX and VIX futures markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    12. Konstantinidi, Eirini & Skiadopoulos, George, 2016. "How does the market variance risk premium vary over time? Evidence from S&P 500 variance swap investment returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 62-75.
    13. Biao Guo & Hai Lin, 2020. "Volatility and jump risk in option returns," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(11), pages 1767-1792, November.
    14. Li, Xiaowei & Wu, Zhengyu & Zhang, Hao & Zhang, Lu, 2024. "Risk-neutral skewness and stock market returns: A time-series analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    15. Chen, Jian & Jiang, Fuwei & Xue, Shuyu & Yao, Jiaquan, 2019. "The world predictive power of U.S. equity market skewness risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 210-227.
    16. Muravyev, Dmitriy & Pearson, Neil D. & Pollet, Joshua M., 2025. "Why does options market information predict stock returns?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    17. Chen, Chin-Ho & Yuan, Shu-Fang, 2024. "Misreaction, hedging pressure, and its effect on the futures market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    18. Byun, Suk-Joon & Kim, Da-Hea, 2016. "Gambling preference and individual equity option returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 155-174.
    19. Xu, Dezhong & Li, Bin & Singh, Tarlok & Chen, Xiaoyue & Li, Jinze, 2025. "Cross-market overnight time-series momentum," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    20. Jondeau, Eric & Zhang, Qunzi & Zhu, Xiaoneng, 2019. "Average skewness matters," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(1), pages 29-47.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:180:y:2025:i:c:s0378426625001761. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.