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The effects of fiscal policy in the 1990s in Japan: A VAR analysis with event studies

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  • Miyazaki, Tomomi

Abstract

This paper examines the effects of Japanese fiscal policy during the 1990s. A mixed vector autoregression (VAR)/event study approach is used for this purpose. The first empirical finding is that in the late 1990s, the negative effect of fiscal policy was larger and more persistent than the positive effect. This finding suggests that the large fiscal expansions in the late 1990s were inadequate for stimulating the macroeconomy in terms of the size and persistence of their policy effects. The second finding is that the permanent tax cuts implemented in the former part of the 1990s increased consumer durable spending significantly and persistently. This increase may reflect consumers' incentive to spend before the increase in the consumption tax rate in April 1997.

Suggested Citation

  • Miyazaki, Tomomi, 2010. "The effects of fiscal policy in the 1990s in Japan: A VAR analysis with event studies," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 80-87, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:japwor:v:22:y:2010:i:2:p:80-87
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    Cited by:

    1. Weonho Yang & Jan Fidrmuc & Sugata Ghosh, 2012. "Macroeconomic Effects of Government Spending Shocks: New Evidence Using Natural Disaster Relief in Korea," CESifo Working Paper Series 3943, CESifo Group Munich.
    2. repec:kob:wpaper:1625 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Venturini, Fiorenza, 2016. "Are Estimates of Fiscal Multipliers Truly Reliable? Some Observations Starting from the Case of Japan," Centro Sraffa Working Papers CSWP23, Centro di Ricerche e Documentazione "Piero Sraffa".
    4. Tomomi Miyazaki, 2016. "Interactions between Regional Public and Private Investment: Evidence from Japanese Prefectures," Discussion Papers 1608, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.
    5. Fukuda, Shin-ichi & Yamada, Junji, 2011. "Stock price targeting and fiscal deficit in Japan: Why did the fiscal deficit increase during Japan’s lost decades?," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 447-464.
    6. Kato, Ryuta Ray & Miyamoto, Hiroaki, 2013. "Fiscal stimulus and labor market dynamics in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 33-58.
    7. Kazuki Hiraga & Masafumi Kozuka & Tomomi Miyazaki, 2016. "Public Capital and Asset Prices: Time-series Evidence from Japan," Discussion Papers 1625, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.
    8. Ryuta Ray Kato & Hiroaki Miyamoto, 2015. "Effects of Fiscal Stimulus on the Labor Market," Public Policy Review, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan, vol. 11(2), pages 277-302, March.
    9. Miyazaki, Tomomi, 2013. "Fiscal Policy and Regional Business Cycle Fluctuations in Japan," Discussion Paper Series 583, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    10. Kameda, Keigo, 2014. "What causes changes in the effects of fiscal policy? A case study of Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 14-31.
    11. Tomomi Miyazaki, 2015. "Fiscal Stimulus Effectiveness in Japan: Evidence from Recent Policies," Discussion Papers 1508, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.
    12. W. R. Garside, 2012. "Japan’s Great Stagnation," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 14624, April.
    13. Jun-Hyung Ko & Hiroshi Morita, 2013. "Regime Switches in Japanese Fiscal Policy: Markov-Switching VAR Approach," Global COE Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series gd12-270, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    14. Zheng, Liping & Severe, Sean, 2016. "Teaching the macroeconomic effects of tax cuts with a quasi-experiment," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 55-65.
    15. Tomomi Miyazaki, 2014. "Fiscal Policy Effectiveness in Japan: Experiences from Recent Policies," Discussion Papers 1416, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.
    16. Rafiq Sohrab, 2012. "Is Discretionary Fiscal Policy in Japan Effective?," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-49, August.
    17. Etsuro Shioji, 2017. "Extracting fiscal policy expectations from a cross section of daily stock returns," UTokyo Price Project Working Paper Series 077, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics.

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