The potential for European aviation CO2 emissions reduction through the use of larger jet aircraft

There is increasing pressure to reduce global CO2 emissions, with aviation targeted as an industry with high future expected growth and limited potential for reduced emissions. In Europe, air transport is likely to be included in the Emissions Trading Scheme from 2012, allowing open trading with other sectors. The proposed scheme may be economically efficient but will it do much towards curbing aviation emissions? A number of papers have looked at the ETS impact on air traffic growth rates, and others have forecast the rate of likely future fuel efficiency gains. This paper examines the potential for greater fuel efficiency through the use of larger aircraft and different patterns of operation. Fuel efficiency was found to be related to aircraft size with more benefit from trading up with short/medium-haul than with long-haul aircraft. This relationship only held for long-haul aircraft if those aircraft with two main decks were removed from the sample (these types showing inherently lower fuel efficiency). Combining these findings with manufacturers' and other forecasts of average aircraft size suggests that less than 1% a year of fuel efficiency gains will be available from this source over the next 20 years.