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How much can electric aircraft contribute to reaching the Flightpath 2050 CO2 emissions goal? A system dynamics approach for european short haul flights

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  • Talwar, Chetan
  • Joormann, Imke
  • Ginster, Raphael
  • Spengler, Thomas Stefan

Abstract

In 2012, the Advisory Council for Aeronautics Research in Europe (ACARE) introduced Flightpath 2050 defining the emission reduction targets for the aviation industry in the EU. The purpose of this study is to assess the impact of narrow body electric aircraft for short haul flights on reaching the Flightpath 2050 CO2 emissions goal using different policy scenarios within the EU. We develop a system dynamics model of the air transport system (ATS), consisting of the interaction between three major segments, namely air travel demand, airline industry and aircraft manufacturers. The model is run for the time period from 1991 to 2050, where electric aircraft are introduced in the year 2035. We simulate the behavior of the ATS under different policy scenarios, e.g., introduction of jet fuel tax, electricity subsidy, seat tax or fleet restriction policy, to test their influence on electric aircraft adoption rates. The results of the analysis suggest that most of the individual policies when implemented are not enough to reach the Flightpath 2050 CO2 emissions goal. Furthermore, a strong set of policy combination was required to reach the goal. Specifically, the combination of an electricity subsidy with kerosene tax demonstrates a higher electric aircraft adoption rate than that of other combinations. On the other hand, sensitivity analysis shows that combinations with electricity subsidy display higher volatility in the CO2 emissions interval. The main reason for this sensitivity is due to the uncertainty in cost pertaining to electric aircraft development parameters.

Suggested Citation

  • Talwar, Chetan & Joormann, Imke & Ginster, Raphael & Spengler, Thomas Stefan, 2023. "How much can electric aircraft contribute to reaching the Flightpath 2050 CO2 emissions goal? A system dynamics approach for european short haul flights," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jaitra:v:112:y:2023:i:c:s0969699723000984
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2023.102455
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