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US Commercial airline performance after September 11, 2001: decomposing the effect of the terrorist attack from macroeconomic influences

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  • Guzhva, Vitaly S
  • Pagiavlas, Notis

Abstract

The US airlines’ revenue passenger miles series are examined to objectively assess the effect of the September 11th terrorist attack on the performance of the industry controlling for the general economic conditions. A Vector Autoregression model (VAR) with revenue passenger mile and real gross domestic product series is utilized. The estimated effect of the attack supports the federal government's appropriation of $5 billion cash compensation to the airlines. Analysis at the individual air carrier level confirms that not all the US major and regional airlines were affected in the same manner. United, Northwest, US Airways, and Delta account for more than 63% of the aggregate decline in the US airline industry performance. Three air carriers: JetBlue, Aloha and Atlantic Southeast were able to significantly improve their performance immediately following the September 11th attack.

Suggested Citation

  • Guzhva, Vitaly S & Pagiavlas, Notis, 2004. "US Commercial airline performance after September 11, 2001: decomposing the effect of the terrorist attack from macroeconomic influences," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 10(5), pages 327-332.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jaitra:v:10:y:2004:i:5:p:327-332
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2004.05.002
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Brown, Richard S. & Kline, William A., 2020. "Exogenous shocks and managerial preparedness: A study of U.S. airlines’ environmental scanning before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
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    5. Charles, Amelie & Darne, Olivier, 2006. "Large shocks and the September 11th terrorist attacks on international stock markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 683-698, July.
    6. Benoit Chèze & Pascal Gastineau & Julien Chevallier, 2010. "Forecasting air traffic and corresponding jet-fuel demande until 2025," Working Papers hal-02489878, HAL.
    7. Thai-Ha Le & Donghyun Park & Cong-Phu-Khanh Tran & Binh Tran-Nam, 2018. "The Impact of the Hai Yang Shi You 981 Event on Vietnam’s Stock Markets," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 17(3_suppl), pages 344-375, December.
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    11. Jenatabadi, Hashem Salarzadeh & Ismail, Noor Azina, 2014. "Application of structural equation modelling for estimating airline performance," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 25-33.
    12. Sander Van Cranenburgh & Caspar Chorus & Bert Van Wee, 2012. "Substantial Changes and Their Impact on Mobility: A Typology and an Overview of the Literature," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(5), pages 569-597, June.
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