The illusion of predictability: How regression statistics mislead experts
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2012.02.002
Download full text from publisher
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
- Deirdre N. McCloskey & Stephen T. Ziliak, 1996. "The Standard Error of Regressions," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(1), pages 97-114, March.
- Stephen T. Ziliak & Deirdre N. McCloskey, 2004.
"Size Matters: The Standard Error of Regressions in the American Economic Review,"
Econ Journal Watch, Econ Journal Watch, vol. 1(2), pages 331-358, August.
- Ziliak, Stephen T. & McCloskey, Deirdre N., 2004. "Size matters: the standard error of regressions in the American Economic Review," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 527-546, November.
- Armstrong, J. Scott, 2007.
"Significance tests harm progress in forecasting,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 321-327.
- Armstrong, J. Scott, 2007. "Significance Tests Harm Progress in Forecasting," MPRA Paper 81664, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Michael C. Jensen, 1968. "The Performance Of Mutual Funds In The Period 1945–1964," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(2), pages 389-416, May.
- Camerer, Colin F & Hogarth, Robin M, 1999.
"The Effects of Financial Incentives in Experiments: A Review and Capital-Labor-Production Framework,"
Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 19(1-3), pages 7-42, December.
- Camerer, Colin F. & Hogarth, Robin M., 1999. "The Effects of Financial Incentives in Experiments: A Review and Capital-Labor-Production Framework," Working Papers 1059, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences.
- Lawrence, Michael & Makridakis, Spyros, 1989. "Factors affecting judgmental forecasts and confidence intervals," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 172-187, April.
- Kahneman, Daniel & Tversky, Amos, 1979.
"Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk,"
Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(2), pages 263-291, March.
- Amos Tversky & Daniel Kahneman, 1979. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk," Levine's Working Paper Archive 7656, David K. Levine.
- Simon, Herbert A, 1978. "Rationality as Process and as Product of Thought," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 68(2), pages 1-16, May.
- Baltagi, Badi H., 2007.
"Worldwide Econometrics Rankings: 1989–2005,"
Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(5), pages 952-1012, October.
- Badi H. Baltagi, 2007. "Worldwide Econometrics Rankings: 1989-2005," Center for Policy Research Working Papers 94, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University.
- David F. Hendry & Bent Nielsen, 2007. "Preface to Econometric Modeling: A Likelihood Approach," Introductory Chapters, in: Econometric Modeling: A Likelihood Approach, Princeton University Press.
- Zellner, Arnold, 2004. "To test or not to test and if so, how?: Comments on "size matters"," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 581-586, November.
- Carhart, Mark M, 1997. "On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
Cited by:
- Steffen Roth & Jari Kaivo-Oja, 2016.
"Is the future a political economy? Functional analysis of three leading foresight and futures studies journals,"
Post-Print
hal-01465701, HAL.
- Steffen Roth & Jari Kaivo-Oja, 2016. "Is the future a political economy? Functional analysis of three leading foresight and futures studies journals," Post-Print hal-01475083, HAL.
- Soyer, Emre & Hogarth, Robin M., 2015. "The golden rule of forecasting: Objections, refinements, and enhancements," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 68(8), pages 1702-1704.
- Hogarth, Robin M. & Soyer, Emre, 2015. "Communicating forecasts: The simplicity of simulated experience," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 68(8), pages 1800-1809.
- Cai, Huifen & Boateng, Agyenim & Guney, Yilmaz, 2019. "Host country institutions and firm-level R&D influences: An analysis of European Union FDI in China," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 311-326.
- Kim, Jae H. & Ji, Philip Inyeob, 2015. "Significance testing in empirical finance: A critical review and assessment," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 1-14.
- Kim, Jae, 2015. "How to Choose the Level of Significance: A Pedagogical Note," MPRA Paper 66373, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Arch G. Woodside & Man-Ling Chang & Cheng-Feng Cheng, 2012. "Government Regulations of Business, Corruption, Reforms, and the Economic Growth of Nations," International Journal of Business and Economics, School of Management Development, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 11(2), pages 127-142, December.
- Ang, Huat Bin (Andy) & Woodside, Arch G., 2017. "Is Bart Simpson offering sage advice? A case-based general theory of managers' core self-evaluations and job satisfaction," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 11-37.
- Armstrong, J. Scott & Green, Kesten C. & Graefe, Andreas, 2015.
"Golden rule of forecasting: Be conservative,"
Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 68(8), pages 1717-1731.
- Armstrong, J. Scott & Green, Kesten C. & Graefe, Andreas, 2014. "Golden Rule of Forecasting: Be conservative," MPRA Paper 53579, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Fergus Bolger & Gene Rowe, 2015. "The Aggregation of Expert Judgment: Do Good Things Come to Those Who Weight?," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(1), pages 5-11, January.
- Ren, Shengce & Tsai, Huei-Ting & Eisingerich, Andreas B., 2016. "Case-based asymmetric modeling of firms with high versus low outcomes in implementing changes in direction," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 500-507.
- Green, Kesten C. & Armstrong, J. Scott & Graefe, Andreas, 2015. "Golden rule of forecasting rearticulated: Forecast unto others as you would have them forecast unto you," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 68(8), pages 1768-1771.
- Green, Kesten C. & Armstrong, J. Scott, 2015. "Simple versus complex forecasting: The evidence," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 68(8), pages 1678-1685.
- Deirdre N. McCloskey & Stephen T. Ziliak, 2012. "Statistical Significance in the New Tom and the Old Tom: A Reply to Thomas Mayer," Econ Journal Watch, Econ Journal Watch, vol. 9(3), pages 298-308, September.
- Armstrong, J. Scott, 2011. "Illusions in Regression Analysis," MPRA Paper 81663, University Library of Munich, Germany.
More about this item
Keywords
Regression; Presentation formats; Probabilistic inference; Prediction; Graphics; Uncertainty;Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:28:y:2012:i:3:p:695-711. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Haili He). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijforecast .
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.