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Economic transformation, population growth and the long-run world income distribution


  • Chamon, Marcos
  • Kremer, Michael


We present and calibrate a model where trade with advanced economies spurs development, and trade opportunities depend on the relative population in advanced and developing countries. As developing countries become advanced, prospects improve for the remaining developing countries. If population growth differentials between developing and advanced economies are small, economic development accelerates over time. Otherwise, long-run global prosperity requires a sufficiently large initial population in advanced countries. More open countries develop faster, but more openness by all developing countries may only modestly increase their aggregate growth. China's development may hurt developing countries in the short-run, but improves their long-run prospects.

Suggested Citation

  • Chamon, Marcos & Kremer, Michael, 2009. "Economic transformation, population growth and the long-run world income distribution," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 20-30, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:79:y:2009:i:1:p:20-30

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Hiroaki Sasaki, 2013. "Positive and Negative Population Growth and Long-Run Trade Patterns: A Non-Scale Growth Model," Discussion papers e-13-004, Graduate School of Economics Project Center, Kyoto University.
    2. Carter, Patrick & Postel-Vinay, Fabien & Temple, Jonathan, 2015. "Dynamic aid allocation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 291-304.
    3. Cabral, René & García-Díaz, Rocío & Mollick, André Varella, 2016. "Does globalization affect top income inequality?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 916-940.
    4. Ou, Xunmin & Xiaoyu, Yan & Zhang, Xiliang, 2011. "Life-cycle energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions for electricity generation and supply in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 289-297, January.
    5. Luis Carvalho & Aurora A.C. Teixeira, 2011. "Where are the poor in International Economics?," FEP Working Papers 425, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    6. Coccia, Mario, 2014. "Driving forces of technological change: The relation between population growth and technological innovation," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 52-65.
    7. Mario Coccia, 2013. "Population and technological innovation: the optimal interaction across modern countries," CERIS Working Paper 201307, Institute for Economic Research on Firms and Growth - Moncalieri (TO) ITALY -NOW- Research Institute on Sustainable Economic Growth - Moncalieri (TO) ITALY.
    8. Sharma, Susan Sunila, 2011. "Determinants of carbon dioxide emissions: Empirical evidence from 69 countries," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 376-382, January.

    More about this item


    Economic development International trade Population growth;

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models


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