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Aggregate information cascades

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  • Guarino, Antonio
  • Harmgart, Heike
  • Huck, Steffen

Abstract

We introduce a new model of aggregate information cascades where only one of two possible actions is observable to others. Agents make a binary decision in sequence. The order is random and agents are not aware of their own position in the sequence. When called upon, they are only informed about the total number of others who have chosen the observable action before them. This informational structure arises naturally in many applications. Our most important result is that only one type of cascade arises in equilibrium, the aggregate cascade on the observable action. A cascade on the unobservable action never arises.

Suggested Citation

  • Guarino, Antonio & Harmgart, Heike & Huck, Steffen, 2011. "Aggregate information cascades," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 167-185, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:gamebe:v:73:y:2011:i:1:p:167-185
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Ruomeng Cui & Dennis J. Zhang & Achal Bassamboo, 2019. "Learning from Inventory Availability Information: Evidence from Field Experiments on Amazon," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(3), pages 1216-1235, March.
    2. Brice Corgnet & Mark DeSantis & David Porter, 2020. "Information Aggregation and the Cognitive Make-up of Traders," Working Papers 20-18, Chapman University, Economic Science Institute.
    3. James C. D. Fisher & John Wooders, 2017. "Interacting information cascades: on the movement of conventions between groups," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 63(1), pages 211-231, January.
    4. Monzón, Ignacio & Rapp, Michael, 2014. "Observational learning with position uncertainty," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 375-402.
    5. Li Chen & Yiangos Papanastasiou, 2021. "Seeding the Herd: Pricing and Welfare Effects of Social Learning Manipulation," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(11), pages 6734-6750, November.
    6. Cao, Qian & Li, Jianbiao & Niu, Xiaofei, 2019. "The role of overconfidence in overweighting private information: Does gender matter?," EconStor Preprints 203448, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    7. Liangfei Qiu & Arunima Chhikara & Asoo Vakharia, 2021. "Multidimensional Observational Learning in Social Networks: Theory and Experimental Evidence," Information Systems Research, INFORMS, vol. 32(3), pages 876-894, September.
    8. Wenjie Dai & Xin Wang & Zengru Di & Jinshan Wu, 2014. "Logical Gaps in the Approximate Solutions of the Social Learning Game and an Exact Solution," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(12), pages 1-18, December.
    9. Georg Weizsacker, 2010. "Do We Follow Others When We Should? A Simple Test of Rational Expectations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(5), pages 2340-2360, December.
    10. Herrera, Helios & Hörner, Johannes, 2013. "Biased social learning," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 131-146.
    11. Antonio Guarino & Steffen Huck & Heike Harmgart, 2008. "When half the truth is better than the truth: A Theory of aggregate information cascades," WEF Working Papers 0046, ESRC World Economy and Finance Research Programme, Birkbeck, University of London.
    12. Ilai Bistritz & Nasimeh Heydaribeni & Achilleas Anastasopoulos, 2019. "Do Informational Cascades Happen with Non-myopic Agents?," Papers 1905.01327, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2022.
    13. Hu, Ju, 2020. "On the existence of the ex post symmetric random entry model," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 42-47.
    14. Corgnet, Brice & DeSantis, Mark & Porter, David, 2021. "Information aggregation and the cognitive make-up of market participants," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    15. Vincent Mak & Rami Zwick, 2014. "Experimenting and learning with localized direct communication," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 17(2), pages 262-284, June.
    16. Parakhonyak, Alexei & Vikander, Nick, 2023. "Information design through scarcity and social learning," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    17. Cary Frydman & Ian Krajbich, 2022. "Using Response Times to Infer Others’ Private Information: An Application to Information Cascades," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(4), pages 2970-2986, April.

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