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Trading price jump clusters in foreign exchange markets

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  • Novotný, Jan
  • Petrov, Dmitri
  • Urga, Giovanni

Abstract

We investigate trading opportunities of price jump clusters in the FX markets. We identify clusters for eight FX rates against the U.S. dollar from March 1, 2013 to June 6, 2013 sampled at a 5-minute frequency. We propose a high-frequency jump cluster-based trading strategy and show that jumps carry a tradable signal for all currencies; however, when incorporating the bid-ask spread, the only profitable currencies are the euro, yen and rand. From the portfolio perspective, a combination of the euro and yen represents a strategy robust to the holding period, minimizes the transaction costs, and diversifies out the U.S.-related risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Novotný, Jan & Petrov, Dmitri & Urga, Giovanni, 2015. "Trading price jump clusters in foreign exchange markets," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 66-92.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:finmar:v:24:y:2015:i:c:p:66-92 DOI: 10.1016/j.finmar.2015.03.002
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    Cited by:

    1. Milan Ficura & Jiri Witzany, 2016. "Estimating Stochastic Volatility and Jumps Using High-Frequency Data and Bayesian Methods," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 66(4), pages 278-301, August.
    2. Jozef Barunik & Lukas Vacha, 2016. "Do co-jumps impact correlations in currency markets?," Papers 1602.05489, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2017.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Price jumps; Clusters; Foreign exchange markets; Trading; Profitable strategy;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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