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Forecasting lithium mine output using satellite data

Author

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  • Hornuf, Lars
  • Klerner, Johannes
  • Schweizer, Denis
  • Vrankar, Daniel

Abstract

This article examines whether data from remote sensing satellites can be used to predict lithium mine output. We use pixel classification of land cover to measure long-term mine expansion and nightly light emissions to measure short-term operational activities. We find a strong correlation between satellite data in one period and individual lithium mine production volumes in the following period. Our rapid and cost-effective method of forecasting lithium mine production can help decision-makers in companies that rely on lithium, and policymakers seeking to ensure adequate lithium supplies in their countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Hornuf, Lars & Klerner, Johannes & Schweizer, Denis & Vrankar, Daniel, 2025. "Forecasting lithium mine output using satellite data," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:81:y:2025:i:c:s1544612325006932
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2025.107433
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • Q02 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Commodity Market
    • L61 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - Metals and Metal Products; Cement; Glass; Ceramics
    • L72 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Primary Products and Construction - - - Mining, Extraction, and Refining: Other Nonrenewable Resources
    • Q31 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Demand and Supply; Prices

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