IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finlet/v71y2025ics154461232401420x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Carbon emission allowance, global climate risk, and agricultural futures: An extreme spillover analysis in China

Author

Listed:
  • Yao, Zengfu
  • Chen, Yonghuai
  • Deng, Shicheng
  • Zhang, Yifeng
  • Wei, Yu

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to investigate the extreme spillover effects between the newly launched China's national carbon emission allowance and agricultural futures markets with the influence of global climate risk. The results show that, first, under both normal and extreme market (climate risk) conditions, the three edible oil futures, i.e., soybean oil, palm oil and rapeseed oil, are strong spillover senders to other agricultural futures. Second, under low and normal climate risk states, climate transition risk is a spillover transmitter, while under high climate risk states, climate physical risk becomes a spillover sender. In addition, the network analysis shows that climate risk is an important information receiving and disseminating node, and large changes in it can lead to increased systemic risk across the network. Finally, China's carbon emission allowance market is always a spillover receiver across different market (climate risk) conditions, and can be used as an appropriate hedging instrument for climate risk and agricultural futures. These findings have valuable implications for both policymakers and agricultural investors.

Suggested Citation

  • Yao, Zengfu & Chen, Yonghuai & Deng, Shicheng & Zhang, Yifeng & Wei, Yu, 2025. "Carbon emission allowance, global climate risk, and agricultural futures: An extreme spillover analysis in China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:71:y:2025:i:c:s154461232401420x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2024.106391
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S154461232401420X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.frl.2024.106391?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wei, Yu & Wang, Yizhi & Vigne, Samuel A. & Ma, Zhenyu, 2023. "Alarming contagion effects: The dangerous ripple effect of extreme price spillovers across crude oil, carbon emission allowance, and agriculture futures markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    2. Jiao Chen & Dingqiang Sun & Funing Zhong & Yanjun Ren & Lei Li, 2024. "Can we design food taxes to reduce agricultural greenhouse gas emissions in China? A perspective from animal protein intake of low-income populations," China Agricultural Economic Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 16(3), pages 389-420, February.
    3. Kamel Si Mohammed & Vanessa Serret & Christian Urom, 2024. "The Effect of Green Bonds on Climate Risk Amid Economic and Environmental policy uncertainties," Post-Print hal-04444957, HAL.
    4. Bai, Lan & Wei, Yu & Zhang, Jiahao & Wang, Yizhi & Lucey, Brian M., 2023. "Diversification effects of China's carbon neutral bond on renewable energy stock markets: A minimum connectedness portfolio approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    5. Liu, Xiaoqian & Cifuentes-Faura, Javier & Zhao, Shikuan & Wang, Long, 2023. "Government environmental attention and carbon emissions governance: Firm-level evidence from China," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 121-142.
    6. Yongqiang Zhang & Quanyao Dong & Guifang Ma, 2023. "Effects of Rural Population Aging on Agricultural Carbon Emissions in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-16, April.
    7. Lyu, Yongjian & Tuo, Siwei & Wei, Yu & Yang, Mo, 2021. "Time-varying effects of global economic policy uncertainty shocks on crude oil price volatility：New evidence," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    8. Giovanna Bua & Daniel Kapp & Federico Ramella & Lavinia Rognone, 2024. "Transition versus physical climate risk pricing in European financial markets: a text-based approach," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(17), pages 2076-2110, November.
    9. Mengfei Song & Qiuyi Wu & Honghui Zhu, 2024. "Could the Aging of the Rural Population Boost Green Agricultural Total Factor Productivity? Evidence from China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(14), pages 1-22, July.
    10. Li, Kai & Qi, Shouzhou & Shi, Xunpeng, 2023. "Environmental policies and low-carbon industrial upgrading: Heterogenous effects among policies, sectors, and technologies in China," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    11. Tomohiro Ando & Matthew Greenwood-Nimmo & Yongcheol Shin, 2022. "Quantile Connectedness: Modeling Tail Behavior in the Topology of Financial Networks," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(4), pages 2401-2431, April.
    12. Mohammed, Kamel Si & Serret, Vanessa & Urom, Christian, 2024. "The effect of green bonds on climate risk amid economic and environmental policy uncertainties," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 62(PA).
    13. Tingting Li & Hongwei Lu & Qiyou Luo & Guojing Li & Mingjie Gao, 2024. "The Impact of Rural Population Aging on Agricultural Cropping Structure: Evidence from China’s Provinces," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-19, April.
    14. Chen, Yongfei & Wei, Yu & Bai, Lan & Zhang, Jiahao, 2023. "Can Green Economy stocks hedge natural gas market risk? Evidence during Russia-Ukraine conflict and other crisis periods," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    15. Diebold, Francis X. & Yilmaz, Kamil, 2012. "Better to give than to receive: Predictive directional measurement of volatility spillovers," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 57-66.
    16. Zhu, Pengfei & Lu, Tuantuan & Shang, Yue & Zhang, Zerong & Wei, Yu, 2023. "Can China's national carbon trading market hedge the risks of light and medium crude oil? A comparative analysis with the European carbon market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PA).
    17. Wang, Jiangbo & Xue, Yefei & Han, Mingyang, 2023. "Impact of carbon emission price and natural resources development on the green economic recovery: Fresh insights from China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    18. Li, Xiafei & Li, Bo & Wei, Guiwu & Bai, Lan & Wei, Yu & Liang, Chao, 2021. "Return connectedness among commodity and financial assets during the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from China and the US," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    19. Nikolaos Antonakakis & Ioannis Chatziantoniou & David Gabauer, 2020. "Refined Measures of Dynamic Connectedness based on Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregressions," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-23, April.
    20. Faccini, Renato & Matin, Rastin & Skiadopoulos, George, 2023. "Dissecting climate risks: Are they reflected in stock prices?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    21. Chen, Yongfei & Wei, Yu & Bai, Lan & Zhang, Jiahao & Wang, Zhuo, 2023. "Connectedness and hedging effects among China's nonferrous metal, crude oil and green bond markets: An extreme perspective," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PA).
    22. Yanling Zong & Libang Ma & Zhihao Shi & Min Gong, 2023. "Agricultural Eco-Efficiency Response and Its Influencing Factors from the Perspective of Rural Population Outflowing: A Case Study in Qinan County, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(2), pages 1-21, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wei, Yu & Wang, Yizhi & Vigne, Samuel A. & Ma, Zhenyu, 2023. "Alarming contagion effects: The dangerous ripple effect of extreme price spillovers across crude oil, carbon emission allowance, and agriculture futures markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    2. Albrecht, Peter & Kočenda, Evžen & de Oliveira, Alexandre Silva & Ceretta, Paulo Sergio & Drábek, Michal, 2025. "Event-driven changes in connectedness among commodities and commodity currencies: A quantile, network and probabilistic analysis," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    3. Ben Jabeur, Sami & Gozgor, Giray & Rezgui, Hichem & Mohammed, Kamel Si, 2024. "Dynamic dependence between quantum computing stocks and Bitcoin: Portfolio strategies for a new era of asset classes," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 95(PB).
    4. Xu, Danyang & Hu, Yang & Oxley, Les & Lin, Boqiang & He, Yongda, 2025. "Exploring the connectedness between major volatility indexes and worldwide sustainable investments," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    5. Shi, Huai-Long & Chen, Huayi, 2025. "Quantile return connectedness of theme factors and portfolio implications: Evidence from the US and China," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    6. Hao, Wei & Pham, Linh, 2024. "Dynamic connectedness in the higher moments between clean energy and oil prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    7. Bai, Lan & Wei, Yu & Zhang, Jiahao & Wang, Yizhi & Lucey, Brian M., 2023. "Diversification effects of China's carbon neutral bond on renewable energy stock markets: A minimum connectedness portfolio approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    8. Liu, Min & Liu, Hongfei & Ping, Weiying, 2025. "Dynamic spillovers between Shanghai crude oil futures and China's green markets: Evidence from quantile-on-quantile connectedness approach," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 78-93.
    9. Lei, Heng & Xue, Minggao & Ye, Jing, 2024. "The nexus between ReFi, carbon, fossil energy, and clean energy assets: Quantile time–frequency connectedness and portfolio implications," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    10. Lu, Xunfa & Huang, Nan & Mo, Jianlei & Ye, Zhitao, 2023. "Dynamics of the return and volatility connectedness among green finance markets during the COVID-19 pandemic," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    11. Jingbo Guo & Zhiyong Wang, 2023. "Spillover effects of RMB exchange rate among RCEP member countries: Empirical evidence from time-frequency domain approach," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 18(6), pages 1-27, June.
    12. Assaf, Ata & Al-Shboul, Mohammad & Mokni, Khaled & Demir, Ender, 2025. "Are Latin American stock markets connected? Exploring spillovers and the impact of risk factors," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    13. Ahmed Bossman & Mariya Gubareva & Samuel Kwaku Agyei & Xuan Vinh Vo, 2024. "When you need them, they are not there: hedge capacities of cryptocurrencies disappear in downtrend markets," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 10(1), pages 1-38, December.
    14. Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Chowdhury, Mohammad Ashraful Ferdous & Abdullah, Mohammad & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2024. "Energy tokens and green energy markets under crisis periods: A quantile downside tail risk dependence analysis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(PB).
    15. Liang, Chao & Goodell, John W. & Li, Xiafei, 2024. "Impacts of carbon market and climate policy uncertainties on financial and economic stability: Evidence from connectedness network analysis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    16. Shi, Huai-Long & Chen, Huayi, 2024. "Understanding co-movements based on heterogeneous information associations," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    17. Aharon, David Y. & Kizys, Renatas & Umar, Zaghum & Zaremba, Adam, 2023. "Did David win a battle or the war against Goliath? Dynamic return and volatility connectedness between the GameStop stock and the high short interest indices," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    18. Al-Fayoumi, Nedal & Bouri, Elie & Abuzayed, Bana, 2023. "Decomposed oil price shocks and GCC stock market sector returns and volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    19. Niu, Hongli & Hu, Wenwen, 2024. "Static and dynamic interdependencies among natural gas, stocks of global major economies and uncertainty," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    20. Zhu, Yanli & Yang, Xian & Zhang, Chuanhai & Liu, Sihan & Li, Jiayi, 2024. "Asymmetric multi-scale systemic risk spillovers across international commodity futures markets: The role of infectious disease uncertainty," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 36(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    China's national carbon emission allowance market; Climate risk; Agricultural futures; Extreme spillover;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:71:y:2025:i:c:s154461232401420x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/frl .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.