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Effects of Rural Population Aging on Agricultural Carbon Emissions in China

Author

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  • Yongqiang Zhang

    (College of Economics & Management, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin 150030, China)

  • Quanyao Dong

    (College of Economics & Management, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin 150030, China)

  • Guifang Ma

    (College of Economics & Management, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin 150030, China)

Abstract

The “double carbon” goal (China aims to achieve carbon peak by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060) puts forward new requirements for the low-carbon development of agriculture. However, with the increasing aging of the rural population and the gradual aging of the agricultural labor force, determining the best means of achieving the target of reducing agricultural carbon emissions is particularly urgent. Based on the IPAT identity relationship (method of decomposing environmental impact (I) into socio-economic variables: population (P), affluence (A), and technology (T)), aging of the rural population, rural residents’ income, and agricultural technology innovation were selected as threshold variables. Using provincial panel data from 2003 to 2020 in China, this study empirically analyzed the impact of rural population aging on agricultural carbon emissions through a threshold–STIRPAT expansion model. The results showed that agricultural carbon emissions showed an inverted U-shaped growth trend from 2003 to 2020 and reached a peak in 2016. Baseline regression found that rural population aging has a significant emission reduction effect on agricultural carbon emissions. In addition, rural residents’ income and agricultural technology innovation have significant positive and negative impacts on agricultural carbon emissions, respectively. Using the three environmental factors as threshold variables, it was found that there is a significant threshold effect. The emission reduction effect of rural population aging weakens with the deepening of the aging degree but is enhanced with the improvement of rural residents’ income and agricultural technology innovation. In view of these findings, policy suggestions are put forward for agricultural low-carbon development that alleviates the effects of rural population aging, increases rural residents’ income, and strengthens agricultural technological innovation.

Suggested Citation

  • Yongqiang Zhang & Quanyao Dong & Guifang Ma, 2023. "Effects of Rural Population Aging on Agricultural Carbon Emissions in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-16, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2023:i:8:p:6812-:d:1126413
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Huang, Yong & Elahi, Ehsan & You, Jiansheng & Sheng, Yuhua & Li, Jinwei & Meng, Anchan, 2024. "Land use policy implications of demographic shifts: Analyzing the impact of aging rural populations on agricultural carbon emissions in China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    2. Le Jing & Bin Zhou & Zhenliang Liao, 2024. "Decoupling Analysis of Economic Growth and Carbon Emissions in Xinjiang Based on Tapio and Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index Models," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(18), pages 1-17, September.
    3. Shuyu Li & Qiang Wang & Rongrong Li, 2024. "How aging impacts environmental sustainability—insights from the effects of social consumption and labor supply," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-16, December.
    4. Zewen Chen & Guoda Bi & Haihong Guo, 2025. "The Effect of the Level of Digital Agriculture Development on Agricultural Carbon Emission Reduction in China: Mediating Evidence Based on Agricultural Labor Productivity and Production Technical Effi," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(17), pages 1-27, August.
    5. Yao, Zengfu & Chen, Yonghuai & Deng, Shicheng & Zhang, Yifeng & Wei, Yu, 2025. "Carbon emission allowance, global climate risk, and agricultural futures: An extreme spillover analysis in China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).

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