IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finlet/v67y2024ipas1544612324008791.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Can higher federal funds rates control mortgage lending during periods of high inflation and high house prices?

Author

Listed:
  • Islam, Mohammad Saiful
  • Koch, Jascha-Alexander

Abstract

The U.S. is facing higher inflation since December 2020 along with higher house prices. After a sharp increase, house prices have started to decline very recently even more drastically – reminding us of the global financial crisis 2007–08. Rather late, from December 2021 onwards, the Fed started to increase the Fed funds rate. However, it is unclear whether the Fed funds rate can control bank lending activities – especially, mortgage lending. Surprisingly, our results suggest that the Fed funds rate fails to control mortgage lending during high inflation and high house prices in the absence of bank reserve requirements.

Suggested Citation

  • Islam, Mohammad Saiful & Koch, Jascha-Alexander, 2024. "Can higher federal funds rates control mortgage lending during periods of high inflation and high house prices?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 67(PA).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:67:y:2024:i:pa:s1544612324008791
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2024.105849
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1544612324008791
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.frl.2024.105849?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hansen, Jacob H. & Møller, Stig V. & Pedersen, Thomas Q. & Schütte, Christian M., 2024. "House price bubbles under the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    2. Fabiani, Andrea & López-Piñeros, Martha & Peydró, José-Luis & Soto, Paul E., 2022. "Capital Controls, Domestic Macroprudential Policy and the Bank Lending Channel of Monetary Policy," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 139(November ), pages 1-1.
    3. Albertazzi, Ugo & Fringuellotti, Fulvia & Ongena, Steven, 2024. "Fixed rate versus adjustable rate mortgages: Evidence from euro area banks," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    4. Dutkowsky, Donald H. & VanHoose, David D., 2020. "Equal treatment under the Fed: Interest on reserves, the federal funds rate, and the ‘Third Regime’ of bank behavior," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    5. Dursun-de Neef, H. Özlem, 2023. "Bank specialization, mortgage lending and house prices," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    6. Brueckner, Jan K. & Calem, Paul S. & Nakamura, Leonard I., 2012. "Subprime mortgages and the housing bubble," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 230-243.
    7. Koch, Jascha-Alexander & Islam, Mohammad Saiful, 2024. "Impact of higher federal funds rates on bank risk during higher inflation in the U.S," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    8. Gambacorta, Leonardo & Mistrulli, Paolo Emilio, 2004. "Does bank capital affect lending behavior?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 436-457, October.
    9. Heitmann, Dennis & Chowdhury, Mohammad Ashraful Ferdous & Islam, Mohammad Saiful, 2023. "Heterogeneous impact of Covid-19 on the US banking sector," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    10. Hinh T. Dinh, 2023. "The Current Banking Crisis and U.S. Monetary Policy," Research papers & Policy papers on Economic Trends and Policies 2312, Policy Center for the New South.
    11. Evans, Jocelyn D. & Robertson, Mari L., 2018. "The effects of the Fed’s monetary tightening campaign on nonbank mortgage lending," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 164-168.
    12. repec:ocp:rpecon:pp_10-23 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Koch, Jascha-Alexander & Islam, Mohammad Saiful, 2024. "Impact of higher federal funds rates on bank risk during higher inflation in the U.S," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    2. Albertazzi, Ugo & Gambacorta, Leonardo, 2009. "Bank profitability and the business cycle," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 393-409, December.
    3. Andrea Orame, 2020. "The role of bank supply in the Italian credit market: evidence from a new regional survey," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1279, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    4. Bouvatier, Vincent & Lepetit, Laetitia, 2008. "Banks' procyclical behavior: Does provisioning matter?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 513-526, December.
    5. Bert Loudis & Ben Ranish, 2019. "CECL and the Credit Cycle," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-061, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Brei, Michael & Gambacorta, Leonardo & von Peter, Goetz, 2013. "Rescue packages and bank lending," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 490-505.
    7. repec:zbw:bofitp:2013_007 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Matteo Alessi & Stefano Di Colli & Juan Sergio Lopez, 2015. "Loan Loss Provision: Some Empirical Evidence for Italian Banks," CESifo Working Paper Series 5253, CESifo.
    9. Aiyar, Shekhar & Calomiris , Charles W & Wieladek, Tomasz, 2012. "Does macropru leak? Evidence from a UK policy experiment," Bank of England working papers 445, Bank of England.
    10. Altunbas, Yener & Gambacorta, Leonardo & Marques-Ibanez, David, 2009. "Securitisation and the bank lending channel," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(8), pages 996-1009, November.
    11. Malgorzata Olszak & Mateusz Pipien & Sylwia Roszkowska, 2016. "The Impact Of Capital Ratio On Lending Of Eu Banks – The Role Of Bank Specialization And Capitalization," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 11(1), pages 43-59, March.
    12. Aysun, Uluc & Hepp, Ralf, 2011. "Securitization and the balance sheet channel of monetary transmission," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 2111-2122, August.
    13. Olszak, Małgorzata & Roszkowska, Sylwia & Kowalska, Iwona, 2018. "Macroprudential policy instruments and procyclicality of loan-loss provisions – Cross-country evidence," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 228-257.
    14. Arnold, Ivo J. M. & Kool, Clemens J. M. & Raabe, Katharina, 2006. "Industries and the bank lending effects of bank credit demand and monetary policy in Germany," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,48, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    15. Sascha Tobias Wengerek & Benjamin Hippert & André Uhde, 2019. "Risk allocation through securitization - Evidence from non-performing loans," Working Papers Dissertations 58, Paderborn University, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics.
    16. Chileshe, Patrick Mumbi, 2017. "Banking structure and the bank lending channel of monetary policy transmission: evidence from panel data methods," MPRA Paper 82757, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Ibrahim Khalil ALLOUCHE & Nancy HIJAZI, 2024. "Financial Stability in the MENA Region: The Impact of Banking Capitalization and Institutional Environment on Credit Availability," International Business Research, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 17(1), pages 1-1, February.
    18. Cândida Ferreira, 2009. "European Integration and the Credit Channel Transmission of Monetary Policy," Working Papers Department of Economics 2009/07, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    19. Christian Merkl & Stephanie Stolz, 2009. "Banks' regulatory buffers, liquidity networks and monetary policy transmission," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(16), pages 2013-2024.
    20. Albertazzi, Ugo & Barbiero, Francesca & Marqués-Ibáñez, David & Popov, Alexander & Rodriguez d’Acri, Costanza & Vlassopoulos, Thomas, 2020. "Monetary policy and bank stability: the analytical toolbox reviewed," Working Paper Series 2377, European Central Bank.
    21. de Moraes, Claudio Oliveira & de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira, 2019. "Bank’s risk measures and monetary policy: Evidence from a large emerging economy," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 121-132.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Federal reserve funds rates; U.S. banks; Inflation; House sales price; Mortgage loan; Bank reserve requirements;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • M4 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:67:y:2024:i:pa:s1544612324008791. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/frl .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.