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Cryptocurrencies and the threat versus the act event of geopolitical risk

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  • Kamal, Md Rajib
  • Wahlstrøm, Ranik Raaen

Abstract

We examine the reactions of the cryptocurrency market to two events that occurred during the escalation of the Russia–Ukraine war in February 2022. Using hourly data, we find that the escalation exerted a negative influence on both liquidity and returns. Interestingly, the actual escalation triggered a more pronounced drop than the threat of escalation shortly before. This contrasts with the stock market, where threats of geopolitical events are found to have a greater impact. Post-escalation, we observe indications of increased demand for cryptocurrencies, potentially as a means to circumvent Western sanctions imposed on Russia or to provide aid to Ukraine.

Suggested Citation

  • Kamal, Md Rajib & Wahlstrøm, Ranik Raaen, 2023. "Cryptocurrencies and the threat versus the act event of geopolitical risk," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:57:y:2023:i:c:s1544612323005962
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2023.104224
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    Cited by:

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    2. Almeida, José & Gonçalves, Tiago Cruz, 2026. "Cryptocurrencies and economic sanctions," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    3. Benjamin Walwai Miba’am & Hasan Güngör, 2025. "Do Uncertainties in US Affect Bitcoin Returns? Evidence from Time Series Analysis," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 66(5), pages 4303-4327, November.
    4. Oana Panazan & Catalin Gheorghe, 2024. "Impact of Geopolitical Risk on G7 Financial Markets: A Comparative Wavelet Analysis between 2014 and 2022," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-22, January.
    5. Hakan Yilmazkuday, 2025. "Geopolitical risks and cryptocurrency returns," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 43(2), pages 166-191, April.
    6. Chen, Yuxuan & Chiu, Junmao & Chung, Huimin & Lien, Donald, 2024. "Bitcoin market connectedness across political uncertainty," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(PA).
    7. Papavassiliou, Vassilios G., 2025. "On the relationship between geopolitical risks and euro area sovereign bond yields," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    8. Nidhal Mgadmi & Ameni Abidi & Néjib Hachicha & Wajdi Moussa, 2025. "The Impacts of the Conflicts Between Israel and Hamas, as well as Between Russia and Ukraine, on Financial Assets and Crypto-Currencies," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 66(2), pages 1671-1689, August.
    9. Soliman, Alain & Le Saout, Erwan, 2024. "The impact of the war in Ukraine on the idiosyncratic risk and the market risk," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    10. Wanidwaranan, Phasin & Wongkantarakorn, Jutamas & Padungsaksawasdi, Chaiyuth, 2025. "Geopolitical risk, herd behavior, and cryptocurrency market," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    11. Polyzos, Efstathios & Youssef, Layal, 2025. "Investigating the impact of global events on cryptocurrency performance: a big data event study approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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