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State-level COVID-19 outbreak and stock returns

Author

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  • Pham, Anh Viet
  • Adrian, Christofer
  • Garg, Mukesh
  • Phang, Soon-Yeow
  • Truong, Cameron

Abstract

We use state-level data to evaluate the connection between outbreaks of COVID-19 and stock returns over the period January-June 2020. We show that daily increases in the number of infected cases, hospitalized cases, and deaths are negatively associated with next day stock returns of firms headquartered in the same state. The relationship is weaker among states with high levels of medical resources and states that are likely to get support from the federal government. In addition, we find that the negative effect is reduced for firms that report an expectation that an outbreak will increase revenues and for firms with a strong corporate social responsibility practice. We believe our study is the first paper to assess cross-sectional stock price reactions to COVID-19 as a function of the state-level impact of the pandemic outbreak.

Suggested Citation

  • Pham, Anh Viet & Adrian, Christofer & Garg, Mukesh & Phang, Soon-Yeow & Truong, Cameron, 2021. "State-level COVID-19 outbreak and stock returns," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:43:y:2021:i:c:s1544612321000830
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2021.102002
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    Cited by:

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    2. Simoens, Mathieu & Vander Vennet, Rudi, 2022. "Does diversification protect European banks’ market valuations in a pandemic?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 44(C).
    3. Bonato, Matteo & Cepni, Oguzhan & Gupta, Rangan & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2023. "Climate risks and state-level stock market realized volatility," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    4. Zhou, Yuqin & Liu, Zhenhua & Wu, Shan, 2022. "The global economic policy uncertainty spillover analysis: In the background of COVID-19 pandemic," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    5. Zhao, Jing & Cao, June & Huang, Jingchang, 2023. "CEO/board medical background and stock returns during the COVID-19 pandemic," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    6. Iyer, Subramanian Rama & Simkins, Betty J., 2022. "COVID-19 and the Economy: Summary of research and future directions," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PB).
    7. Anani, Makafui & Owusu, Felix, 2023. "Regulatory capital and bank risk-resilience amid the Covid-19 pandemic: How are the Basel reforms faring?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    8. Gregory, Richard Paul, 2022. "ESG scores and the response of the S&P 1500 to monetary and fiscal policy during the Covid-19 pandemic," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 446-456.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; Stock returns; Corporate social responsibility; State-level analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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