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Seasonality in the Cross-Section of Cryptocurrency Returns

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  • Long, Huaigang
  • Zaremba, Adam
  • Demir, Ender
  • Szczygielski, Jan Jakub
  • Vasenin, Mikhail

Abstract

This study presents the first attempt to examine the cross-sectional seasonality anomaly in cryptocurrency markets. To this end, we apply sorts and cross-sectional regressions to investigate daily returns on 151 cryptocurrencies for the years 2016 to 2019. We find a significant seasonal pattern: average past same-weekday returns positively predict future performance in the cross-section. Cryptocurrencies with high same-day returns in the past outperform cryptocurrencies with a low same-day return. This effect is not subsumed by other established return predictors such as momentum, size, beta, idiosyncratic risk, or liquidity.

Suggested Citation

  • Long, Huaigang & Zaremba, Adam & Demir, Ender & Szczygielski, Jan Jakub & Vasenin, Mikhail, 2020. "Seasonality in the Cross-Section of Cryptocurrency Returns," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 35(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:35:y:2020:i:c:s154461232030235x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2020.101566
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Ata Assaf & Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana & Khaled Mokni, 2022. "True or spurious long memory in the cryptocurrency markets: evidence from a multivariate test and other Whittle estimation methods," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(3), pages 1543-1570, September.
    2. Zaremba, Adam & Bilgin, Mehmet Huseyin & Long, Huaigang & Mercik, Aleksander & Szczygielski, Jan J., 2021. "Up or down? Short-term reversal, momentum, and liquidity effects in cryptocurrency markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    3. Ahn, Yongkil & Kim, Dongyeon, 2021. "Emotional trading in the cryptocurrency market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    4. Aharon, David Y. & Demir, Ender & Lau, Chi Keung Marco & Zaremba, Adam, 2022. "Twitter-Based uncertainty and cryptocurrency returns," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    5. Milan Fičura, 2023. "Impact of size and volume on cryptocurrency momentum and reversal," FFA Working Papers 5.003, Prague University of Economics and Business, revised 05 Apr 2023.
    6. Liebi, Luca J., 2022. "Is there a value premium in cryptoasset markets?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    7. Long, Huaigang & Demir, Ender & Będowska-Sójka, Barbara & Zaremba, Adam & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain, 2022. "Is geopolitical risk priced in the cross-section of cryptocurrency returns?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    8. Shanaev, Savva & Ghimire, Binam, 2022. "A generalised seasonality test and applications for cryptocurrency and stock market seasonality," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 172-185.
    9. Bing Xiao & Philippe Maillebuau, 2020. "The Seasonal Effect On The Chinese Gold Market Using An Empirical Analysis Of The Shanghai Gold Exchange," Post-Print hal-02905216, HAL.
    10. Tran, Quang Van & Kukal, Jaromir, 2022. "A novel heavy tail distribution of logarithmic returns of cryptocurrencies," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA).
    11. Guo, Shuxin & Yuan, Yue & Ma, Feng, 2022. "Cross-sectional seasonalities and seasonal reversals: Evidence from China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    12. Ahn, Yongkil & Kim, Dongyeon, 2023. "Visceral emotions and Bitcoin trading," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    13. Wang, Qiyu & Chong, Terence Tai-Leung, 2021. "Factor pricing of cryptocurrencies," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    14. Almeida, José & Gonçalves, Tiago Cruz, 2023. "A systematic literature review of investor behavior in the cryptocurrency markets," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).
    15. Shen, Zhuyi & Wang, Shibo & Yang, Jinqiang, 2023. "A note on the dynamic adoption and valuation theory in tokenomics," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    16. Assaf, Ata & Bilgin, Mehmet Huseyin & Demir, Ender, 2022. "Using transfer entropy to measure information flows between cryptocurrencies," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 586(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cryptocurrencies; Cross-sectional seasonality; Cross-section of returns; Return predictability; Asset pricing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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