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Another look at anchoring and stock return predictability

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  • Bhootra, Ajay

Abstract

The superior performance of a momentum strategy long in stocks trading near their 52-week high prices and short in stocks trading far from their 52-week high prices is well-documented. In contrast, recent research finds that a similar strategy based on historical high prices exhibits subsequent reversals instead. This paper shows that after excluding low-priced stocks and/or January returns from the sample, the stocks trading near their historical high prices, in fact, exhibit significant outperformance. In particular, in a sample without low-priced stocks, a strategy long in 10% of the stocks with prices nearest to their historical high prices and short in 10% of the stocks with prices furthest from their historical high prices earns an average monthly return of 0.93% in non-January months. The performance of 52-week high momentum strategy also improves significantly upon exclusion of low-priced stocks and/or January returns. These findings have important implications for the anchoring-based behavioral explanations of these return patterns.

Suggested Citation

  • Bhootra, Ajay, 2018. "Another look at anchoring and stock return predictability," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 259-265.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:25:y:2018:i:c:p:259-265
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2017.11.002
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    1. Ramos, Sofia B. & Latoeiro, Pedro & Veiga, Helena, 2020. "Limited attention, salience of information and stock market activity," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 92-108.
    2. Ünveren, Burak & Baycar, Kazım, 2019. "Historical evidence for anchoring bias: The 1875 cadastral survey in Istanbul," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 1-14.

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