IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finana/v46y2016icp70-83.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Voluntary profit forecast disclosures, IPO pricing revisions and after-market earnings drift

Author

Listed:
  • McGuinness, Paul B.

Abstract

Prospectus profit forecasts (PPF) constitute one of the most important discretionary disclosure items in an IPO. I examine such disclosures in the Hong Kong market, where both IPO activity and PPF disclosure rates are at high levels. The median forecast typically ‘underestimates’ future earnings by around 6%. More importantly, PPF disclosure exhibits a strong inverse association with pre-listing owners' retained equity levels (Hughes, 1986; and Li and McConomy, 2004). PPF disclosure is thus more likely in IPOs raising more capital and generating larger floats. I also demonstrate a strong link between PPF disclosure and post-IPO earnings drift.

Suggested Citation

  • McGuinness, Paul B., 2016. "Voluntary profit forecast disclosures, IPO pricing revisions and after-market earnings drift," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 70-83.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:46:y:2016:i:c:p:70-83
    DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2016.04.005
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1057521916300540
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.irfa.2016.04.005?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jenkinson, Tim & Morrison, Alan D. & Wilhelm, William Jr., 2006. "Why are European IPOs so rarely priced outside the indicative price range?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 185-209, April.
    2. Bradley, Daniel J. & Jordan, Bradford D., 2002. "Partial Adjustment to Public Information and IPO Underpricing," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 37(4), pages 595-616, December.
    3. Jennifer Francis & Dhananjay Nanda & Per Olsson, 2008. "Voluntary Disclosure, Earnings Quality, and Cost of Capital," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(1), pages 53-99, March.
    4. Booth, James R. & Smith, Richard II, 1986. "Capital raising, underwriting and the certification hypothesis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1-2), pages 261-281.
    5. Andrew Ellul & Marco Pagano, 2006. "IPO Underpricing and After-Market Liquidity," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(2), pages 381-421.
    6. Ritter, Jay R, 1984. "The "Hot Issue" Market of 1980," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 57(2), pages 215-240, April.
    7. Paul B. McGuinness, 2016. "Post-IPO performance and its association with subscription cascades and issuers’ strategic-political importance," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 46(2), pages 291-333, February.
    8. Carter, Richard B & Manaster, Steven, 1990. "Initial Public Offerings and Underwriter Reputation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1045-1067, September.
    9. Denis Cormier & Pascale Lapointe-Antunes & Bruce J. McConomy, 2014. "Forecasts in IPO Prospectuses: The Effect of Corporate Governance on Earnings Management," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(1-2), pages 100-127, January.
    10. Beng Soon Chong & Kim Wai Ho, 2007. "Lockup and Voluntary Earnings Forecast Disclosure in IPOs," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 36(3), pages 63-80, September.
    11. Trueman, Brett, 1986. "Why do managers voluntarily release earnings forecasts?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 53-71, March.
    12. Keasey, Kevin & McGuinness, Paul B., 2008. "Firm value and its relation to equity retention levels, forecast earnings disclosures and underpricing in initial public offerings in Hong Kong," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(6), pages 642-662, December.
    13. Mark Grinblatt & Chuan Yang Hwang, "undated". "Signalling and the Pricing of Unseasoned New Issues," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 1-89, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    14. Tim Loughran & Jay R. Ritter, 2002. "Why Don't Issuers Get Upset About Leaving Money on the Table in IPOs?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(2), pages 413-444, March.
    15. Dimitrios Gounopoulos, 2011. "Associations Between Management Forecast Accuracy and Pricing of IPOs in Athens Stock Exchange," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 15(3-4), pages 235-272, September.
    16. Andrew J. Leone & Steve Rock & Michael Willenborg, 2007. "Disclosure of Intended Use of Proceeds and Underpricing in Initial Public Offerings," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(1), pages 111-153, March.
    17. Mazouz, Khelifa & Saadouni, Brahim & Yin, Shuxing, 2009. "Offering methods and issuer-oriented underpricing costs: Evidence from the Hong Kong IPO market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 937-949, December.
    18. Jain, Bharat A. & Kini, Omesh, 1999. "On investment banker monitoring in the new issues market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 49-84, January.
    19. Lee, Gemma & Masulis, Ronald W., 2011. "Do more reputable financial institutions reduce earnings management by IPO issuers?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 982-1000, September.
    20. Hanley, Kathleen Weiss, 1993. "The underpricing of initial public offerings and the partial adjustment phenomenon," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 231-250, October.
    21. Leland, Hayne E & Pyle, David H, 1977. "Informational Asymmetries, Financial Structure, and Financial Intermediation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(2), pages 371-387, May.
    22. Niamh Brennan, 2000. "An empirical examination of forecast disclosure by bidding companies," Accounting and Business Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 175-194.
    23. Ball, Ray & Shivakumar, Lakshmanan, 2008. "Earnings quality at initial public offerings," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2-3), pages 324-349, August.
    24. T.Y. Cheng & Michael Firth, 2000. "An Empirical Analysis of the Bias and Rationality of Profit Forecasts Published in New Issue Prospectuses," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(3&4), pages 423-446.
    25. Vijay Jog & Bruce J. McConomy, 2003. "Voluntary Disclosure of Management Earnings Forecasts in IPO Prospectuses," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(1-2), pages 125-168.
    26. Su, Chen & Brookfield, David, 2013. "An evaluation of the impact of stock market reforms on IPO under-pricing in China: The certification role of underwriters," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 20-33.
    27. Allen, Franklin & Faulhaber, Gerald R., 1989. "Signalling by underpricing in the IPO market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 303-323, August.
    28. Paul McGuinness, 2016. "Post-IPO performance and its association with subscription cascades and issuers’ strategic-political importance," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 46(2), pages 291-333, February.
    29. Kasznik, R, 1999. "On the association between voluntary disclosure and earnings management," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(1), pages 57-81.
    30. Michael Firth, 1998. "IPO profit forecasts and their role in signalling firm value and explaining post-listing returns," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(1), pages 29-39.
    31. Peter M. Clarkson, 2000. "Auditor Quality and the Accuracy of Management Earnings Forecasts," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 17(4), pages 595-622, December.
    32. Siew Hong Teoh & Ivo Welch & T.J. Wong, 1998. "Earnings Management and the Long-Run Market Performance of Initial Public Offerings," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(6), pages 1935-1974, December.
    33. Hughes, Patricia J., 1986. "Signalling by direct disclosure under asymmetric information," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 119-142, June.
    34. repec:mfj:journl:v:16:y:2011:i:3-4:p:235-272 is not listed on IDEAS
    35. Beatty, Randolph P. & Ritter, Jay R., 1986. "Investment banking, reputation, and the underpricing of initial public offerings," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1-2), pages 213-232.
    36. Brown, Ld & Richardson, Gd & Schwager, Sj, 1987. "An Information Interpretation Of Financial Analyst Superiority In Forecasting Earnings," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 49-67.
    37. Paul B. McGuinness, 2012. "The role of ‘cornerstone’ investors and the Chinese state in the relative underpricing of state- and privately controlled IPO firms," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(18), pages 1529-1551, September.
    38. Shu, Yan & Broadstock, David C. & Xu, Bing, 2013. "The heterogeneous impact of macroeconomic information on firms' earnings forecasts," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(4), pages 311-325.
    39. Qi Zhang & Charlie Cai & Kevin Keasey, 2014. "The profitability, costs and systematic risk of the post-earnings-announcement-drift trading strategy," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 43(3), pages 605-625, October.
    40. Brennan, M. J. & Franks, J., 1997. "Underpricing, ownership and control in initial public offerings of equity securities in the UK," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 391-413, September.
    41. Vasiliki Athanasakou & Norman Strong & Martin Walker, 2009. "Earnings management or forecast guidance to meet analyst expectations?," Accounting and Business Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(1), pages 3-35.
    42. Penman, Sh, 1980. "An Empirical-Investigation Of The Voluntary Disclosure Of Corporate-Earnings Forecasts," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(1), pages 132-160.
    43. Richard B. Carter & Frederick H. Dark & Ajai K. Singh, 1998. "Underwriter Reputation, Initial Returns, and the Long-Run Performance of IPO Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(1), pages 285-311, February.
    44. Welch, Ivo, 1989. " Seasoned Offerings, Imitation Costs, and the Underpricing of Initial Public Offerings," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(2), pages 421-449, June.
    45. Vijay Jog & Bruce J. McConomy, 2003. "Voluntary Disclosure of Management Earnings Forecasts in IPO Prospectuses," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(1‐2), pages 125-168, January.
    46. Habib, Michel A & Ljungqvist, Alexander P, 2001. "Underpricing and Entrepreneurial Wealth Losses in IPOs: Theory and Evidence," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(2), pages 433-458.
    47. Ranko Jelic & Brahim Saadouni & Richard Briston, 1998. "The accuracy of earnings forecasts in IPO prospectuses on the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange," Accounting and Business Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(1), pages 57-72.
    48. Agarwal, Sumit & Liu, Chunlin & Rhee, S. Ghon, 2008. "Investor demand for IPOs and aftermarket performance: Evidence from the Hong Kong stock market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 176-190, April.
    49. Benveniste, Lawrence M. & Spindt, Paul A., 1989. "How investment bankers determine the offer price and allocation of new issues," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 343-361.
    50. Ahmad-Zaluki, Nurwati A. & Campbell, Kevin & Goodacre, Alan, 2011. "Earnings management in Malaysian IPOs: The East Asian crisis, ownership control, and post-IPO performance," The International Journal of Accounting, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 111-137, June.
    51. T.Y. Cheng & Michael Firth, 2000. "An Empirical Analysis of the Bias and Rationality of Profit Forecasts Published in New Issue Prospectuses," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(3-4), pages 423-446.
    52. Michael Willenborg & Biyu Wu & Yanhua Sunny Yang, 2015. "Issuer Operating Performance and IPO Price Formation," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(5), pages 1109-1149, December.
    53. T.Y. Cheng & Michael Firth, 2000. "An Empirical Analysis of the Bias and Rationality of Profit Forecasts Published in New Issue Prospectuses," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(3‐4), pages 423-446, April.
    54. Michael Firth & Chee Keng Liau-Tan, 1998. "Auditor Quality, Signalling, and the Valuation of Initial Public Offerings," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1&2), pages 145-165.
    55. Ravi Lonkani & Michael Firth, 2005. "The accuracy of IPO earnings forecasts in Thailand and their relationships with stock market valuation," Accounting and Business Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(3), pages 269-286.
    56. Chen, Gongmeng & Firth, Michael & Krishnan, Gopal V., 2001. "Earnings forecast errors in IPO prospectuses and their associations with initial stock returns," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 225-240, April.
    57. Sonia Falconieri & Albert Murphy & Daniel Weaver, 2009. "Underpricing and Ex Post Value Uncertainty," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 38(2), pages 285-300, June.
    58. Grinblatt, Mark & Hwang, Chuan Yang, 1989. " Signalling and the Pricing of New Issues," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(2), pages 393-420, June.
    59. Neil Hartnett & Jennifer Romcke, 2000. "The Predictability of Management Forecast Error: A Study of Australian IPO Disclosures," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 4(1-2), pages 101-132, March-Jun.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Katti, Supriya & Lawrence, Edward R. & Raithatha, Mehul, 2023. "Risk disclosure in IPO advertisement and the quality of the firm," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    2. Shou, Biying & Fang, Yaner & Li, Zhaolin, 2022. "Information acquisition and voluntary disclosure with supply chain and capital market interaction," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 297(3), pages 878-889.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Paul B. McGuinness, 2016. "Post-IPO performance and its association with subscription cascades and issuers’ strategic-political importance," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 46(2), pages 291-333, February.
    2. McGuinness, Paul B., 2014. "IPO firm value and its connection with cornerstone and wider signalling effects," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 138-162.
    3. Denis Cormier & Daniel Coulombe & Luania Gomez Gutierrez & Bruce J. Mcconomy, 2018. "Firms in Transition: A Review of the Venture Capital, IPO, and M&A Literature," Accounting Perspectives, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 17(1), pages 9-88, March.
    4. Keasey, Kevin & McGuinness, Paul B., 2008. "Firm value and its relation to equity retention levels, forecast earnings disclosures and underpricing in initial public offerings in Hong Kong," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(6), pages 642-662, December.
    5. Manel Allaya & Narjess Toumi, 2020. "The effect of lockup on management earnings forecasts disclosure in French IPOs," Journal of Management & Governance, Springer;Accademia Italiana di Economia Aziendale (AIDEA), vol. 24(2), pages 507-529, June.
    6. Reber, Beat & Vencappa, Dev, 2016. "Deliberate premarket underpricing and aftermarket mispricing: New insights on IPO pricing," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 18-33.
    7. Paul B. McGuinness, 2018. "IPO Firm Performance and Its Link with Board Officer Gender, Family-Ties and Other Demographics," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 152(2), pages 499-521, October.
    8. Agathee, Ushad Subadar & Sannassee, Raja Vinesh & Brooks, Chris, 2012. "The underpricing of IPOs on the Stock Exchange of Mauritius," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 281-303.
    9. Banerjee, Shantanu & Güçbilmez, Ufuk & Pawlina, Grzegorz, 2016. "Leaders and followers in hot IPO markets," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 309-334.
    10. Sabri Boubaker & Dimitrios Gounopoulos & Antonios Kallias & Konstantinos Kallias, 2017. "Management earnings forecasts and IPO performance: evidence of a regime change," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 48(4), pages 1083-1121, May.
    11. Fouad Jamaani & Manal Alidarous, 2019. "Review of Theoretical Explanations of IPO Underpricing," Journal of Accounting, Business and Finance Research, Scientific Publishing Institute, vol. 6(1), pages 1-18.
    12. Paul McGuinness, 2009. "The dual-tranche offer mechanism in Hong Kong and the characteristics of IPO subscription demand and initial return levels," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(21), pages 1715-1736.
    13. Natalia Matanova & Tanja Steigner & Bingsheng Yi & Qiancheng Zheng, 2019. "Going concern opinions and IPO pricing accuracy," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 195-238, July.
    14. Tiziana La Rocca, 2021. "Do prestigious underwriters shape IPO pricing? A meta-analytic review," Review of Managerial Science, Springer, vol. 15(3), pages 573-609, April.
    15. Grammenos, Costas Th. & Papapostolou, Nikos C., 2012. "US shipping initial public offerings: Do prospectus and market information matter?," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 276-295.
    16. Reber, Beat, 2017. "Does mispricing, liquidity or third-party certification contribute to IPO downside risk?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 25-53.
    17. Jones, Steven L. & Yeoman, John C., 2014. "Initial uncertainty and the risk of setting a fixed-offer price: Implications for the pricing of bookbuilt and best-efforts IPOs," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 194-215.
    18. Agoraki, Maria-Eleni K. & Gounopoulos, Dimitrios & Kouretas, Georgios P., 2022. "U.S. banks’ IPOs and political money contributions," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    19. Oehler, Andreas & Rummer, Marco & Smith, Peter N., 2004. "IPO Pricing and the Relative Importance of Investor Sentiment: Evidence from Germany," Discussion Papers 26, University of Bamberg, Chair of Finance.
    20. Smart, Scott B. & Zutter, Chad J., 2003. "Control as a motivation for underpricing: a comparison of dual and single-class IPOs," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 85-110, July.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:46:y:2016:i:c:p:70-83. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620166 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.