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An Empirical Analysis of the Bias and Rationality of Profit Forecasts Published in New Issue Prospectuses

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  • T.Y. Cheng

    (Department of Accounting and Finance, Lingnan University, Tuen Mun, Hong Kong,)

  • Michael Firth

Abstract

Our study sets out to assess the accuracy of profit forecasts made by IPOs in Hong Kong. We use a variety of measures and tests to examine the accuracy, bias, rationality, and superiority of earnings estimates. The results show that forecast accuracy compares favourably with the findings from the developed economies of Australia, Britain, Canada, and New Zealand. Forecasts are shown to be superior to the predictions from time series models. IPOs tend to underforecast in the sense that actual profits exceed the forecasts. The rationality tests show mixed results. Cross-sectional analyses of forecast accuracy have poor explanatory power although the Big Six reporting accountants are associated with smaller forecast errors. Copyright Blackwell Publishers Ltd 2000.

Suggested Citation

  • T.Y. Cheng & Michael Firth, 2000. "An Empirical Analysis of the Bias and Rationality of Profit Forecasts Published in New Issue Prospectuses," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(3-4), pages 423-446.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:jbfnac:v:27:y:2000-04:i:3-4:p:423-446
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Bikki Jaggi & Chen-lung Chin & Hsiou-wei William Lin & Picheng Lee, 2006. "Earnings forecast disclosure regulation and earnings management: evidence from Taiwan IPO firms," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 275-299, May.
    2. Keasey, Kevin & McGuinness, Paul B., 2008. "Firm value and its relation to equity retention levels, forecast earnings disclosures and underpricing in initial public offerings in Hong Kong," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(6), pages 642-662, December.
    3. Anne Cazavan-Jeny & Thomas Jeanjean, 2007. "Levels of voluntary disclosure in IPO prospectuses: an empirical analysis," Review of Accounting and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 6(2), pages 131-149, May.
    4. Sun, Jerry & Liu, Guoping, 2009. "The impact of the CSRC Regulation No. 12-1996 on the credibility of Chinese IPO earnings forecasts," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 165-179.
    5. Anis Mnif, 2009. "Corporate Governance And Management Earnings Forecast Quality: Evidence From French Ipos," Post-Print halshs-00459171, HAL.
    6. Sabri Boubaker & Dimitrios Gounopoulos & Antonios Kallias & Konstantinos Kallias, 2017. "Management earnings forecasts and IPO performance: evidence of a regime change," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 48(4), pages 1083-1121, May.
    7. McGuinness, Paul B., 2016. "Voluntary profit forecast disclosures, IPO pricing revisions and after-market earnings drift," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 70-83.
    8. Alain Schatt & Thierry Roy, 2002. "Analyse Empirique Des Ecarts De Previsions De Benefices Dans Les Prospectus D'Introduction : Le Cas Francais," Post-Print halshs-00584529, HAL.
    9. Suwina Cheng & Michael Firth, 2006. "Family ownership, corporate governance, and top executive compensation," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(7), pages 549-561.
    10. Marc Deloof & Wouter De Maeseneire & Koen Inghelbrecht, 2009. "How Do Investment Banks Value Initial Public Offerings (IPOs)?," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(1-2), pages 130-160.

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