IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finana/v17y2008i5p1036-1054.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Portfolio selection subject to experts' judgments

Author

Listed:
  • Smimou, K.
  • Bector, C.R.
  • Jacoby, G.

Abstract

Since Markowitz [Markowitz, H. M. (1952). Portfolio selection. The Journal of Finance, 7, 77-91.], mean-variance theory has assumed that risky-asset returns to be random variables. The theory deals with this uncertainty by further assuming that investors hold homogeneous beliefs regarding the probability distribution governing return uncertainty. While the theory deals with return uncertainty, it fails to address measurement imprecision. In his original work, Markowitz recognized the need to combine randomness with heterogeneous expert judgment resulting in such imprecision. The main objective contributions of the paper are (i) to explore the implications of fuzzy return indeterminacy on mean-variance optimal portfolio choice, (ii) to use bid-ask spread as a proxy measure of the indeterminacy or "fuzzy" nature of random returns, and (iii) to introduce a brief, self-contained glimpse of empirical representations to practitioners unfamiliar with the fuzzy modeling field. Exposition, such as this one, is expected to open new collaborations between other branches of fuzzy mathematics and asset-pricing theories.

Suggested Citation

  • Smimou, K. & Bector, C.R. & Jacoby, G., 2008. "Portfolio selection subject to experts' judgments," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 1036-1054, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:17:y:2008:i:5:p:1036-1054
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1057-5219(08)00019-7
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. R. E. Bellman & L. A. Zadeh, 1970. "Decision-Making in a Fuzzy Environment," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 17(4), pages 141-164, December.
    2. Dubois, Didier & Prade, Henri, 1989. "Fuzzy sets, probability and measurement," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 135-154, May.
    3. Bartholdy, Jan & Peare, Paula, 2003. "Unbiased estimation of expected return using CAPM," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 69-81.
    4. Stephen A. Ross, 2005. "Mutual Fund Separation in Financial Theory—The Separating Distributions," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Sudipto Bhattacharya & George M Constantinides (ed.), Theory Of Valuation, chapter 10, pages 309-356, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    5. Kee, H. Chung & McInish, Thomas H. & Wood, Robert A. & Wyhowski, Donald J., 1995. "Production of information, information asymmetry, and the bid-ask spread: Empirical evidence from analysts' forecasts," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(6), pages 1025-1046, September.
    6. Glosten, Lawrence R. & Milgrom, Paul R., 1985. "Bid, ask and transaction prices in a specialist market with heterogeneously informed traders," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 71-100, March.
    7. Amihud, Yakov & Mendelson, Haim, 1986. "Asset pricing and the bid-ask spread," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 223-249, December.
    8. Heinkel, Robert & Kraus, Alan, 1988. "Measuring Event Impacts in Thinly Traded Stocks," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(1), pages 71-88, March.
    9. Kroll, Yoram & Levy, Haim, 1980. "Sampling Errors and Portfolio Efficient Analysis," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(3), pages 655-688, September.
    10. Merton, Robert C, 1987. "A Simple Model of Capital Market Equilibrium with Incomplete Information," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(3), pages 483-510, July.
    11. repec:bla:jfinan:v:44:y:1989:i:2:p:479-86 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Harry Markowitz, 1952. "Portfolio Selection," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 7(1), pages 77-91, March.
    13. Levy, Haim, 1983. "The Capital Asset Pricing Model: Theory and Empiricism," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 93(369), pages 145-165, March.
    14. Voros, J., 1986. "Portfolio analysis--an analytic derivation of the efficient portfolio frontier," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 294-300, March.
    15. Ľuboš Pástor, 2000. "Portfolio Selection and Asset Pricing Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(1), pages 179-223, February.
    16. Koski, Jennifer Lynch, 1998. "Measurement Effects and the Variance of Returns after Stock Splits and Stock Dividends," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 11(1), pages 143-162.
    17. Glosten, Lawrence R. & Harris, Lawrence E., 1988. "Estimating the components of the bid/ask spread," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 123-142, May.
    18. Abhyankar, Abhay & Ho, Keng-Yu, 2007. "Long-horizon event studies and event firm portfolio weights: Evidence from U.K. rights issues re-visited," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 61-80.
    19. Koski, Jennifer Lynch & Michaely, Roni, 2000. "Prices, Liquidity, and the Information Content of Trades," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 13(3), pages 659-696.
    20. Copeland, Thomas E & Friedman, Daniel, 1987. "The Effect of Sequential Information Arrival on Asset Prices: An Experimental Study," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(3), pages 763-797, July.
    21. Gourieroux, C. & Monfort, A., 2005. "The econometrics of efficient portfolios," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 1-41, January.
    22. Jarrow, Robert A, 1980. "Heterogeneous Expectations, Restrictions on Short Sales, and Equilibrium Asset Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 35(5), pages 1105-1113, December.
    23. Ross, Stephen A, 1977. "The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), Short-Sale Restrictions and Related Issues," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(1), pages 177-183, March.
    24. William F. Sharpe, 1964. "Capital Asset Prices: A Theory Of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions Of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 425-442, September.
    25. Cheng Lee & Gwo-Hshiung Tzeng & Shin-Yun Wang, 2005. "A Fuzzy Set Approach for Generalized CRR Model: An Empirical Analysis of S&P 500 Index Options," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 25(3), pages 255-275, November.
    26. Syau, Yu-Ru & Hsieh, Hai-Teh & Lee, E Stanley, 2001. "Fuzzy Numbers in the Credit Rating of Enterprise Financial Condition," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 351-360, December.
    27. Kane, Stephen A., 1999. "What happened to the utility functions?: Imprecise expectations of security prices," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 165-175, June.
    28. Cox, John C. & Ross, Stephen A. & Rubinstein, Mark, 1979. "Option pricing: A simplified approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 229-263, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Rachida Hennani & Michel Terraza, 2012. "Value-at-Risk stressée chaotique d’un portefeuille bancaire," Working Papers 12-23, LAMETA, Universtiy of Montpellier, revised Sep 2012.
    2. Matus Medo & Chi Ho Yeung & Yi-Cheng Zhang, 2008. "How to quantify the influence of correlations on investment diversification," Papers 0805.3397, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2009.
    3. Mbairadjim Moussa, A. & Sadefo Kamdem, J. & Shapiro, A.F. & Terraza, M., 2014. "CAPM with fuzzy returns and hypothesis testing," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 40-57.
    4. Chen, Wei, 2015. "Artificial bee colony algorithm for constrained possibilistic portfolio optimization problem," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 429(C), pages 125-139.
    5. Sadefo Kamdem, J. & Mbairadjim Moussa, A. & Terraza, M., 2012. "Fuzzy risk adjusted performance measures: Application to hedge funds," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 702-712.
    6. Mbairadjim Moussa, A. & Sadefo Kamdem, J. & Terraza, M., 2014. "Fuzzy value-at-risk and expected shortfall for portfolios with heavy-tailed returns," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 247-256.
    7. Alfred Mbairadjim Moussa & Jules Sadefo Kamdem, 2022. "A fuzzy multifactor asset pricing model," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 313(2), pages 1221-1241, June.
    8. Medo, Matús & Yeung, Chi Ho & Zhang, Yi-Cheng, 2009. "How to quantify the influence of correlations on investment diversification," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 18(1-2), pages 34-39, March.
    9. Zhou, Jian & Shen, Yixuan & Pantelous, Athanasios A. & Zhang, Hui, 2021. "The range of uncertainty on the property market pricing: The case of the city of Shanghai," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 40(C).
    10. Chen, Shun & Ge, Lei, 2021. "A learning-based strategy for portfolio selection," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 936-942.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Smimou, K. & Bector, C.R. & Jacoby, G., 2007. "A subjective assessment of approximate probabilities with a portfolio application," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 134-160, June.
    2. Smimou, K., 2014. "International portfolio choice and political instability risk: A multi-objective approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 234(2), pages 546-560.
    3. Yusif Simaan, 2025. "Markowitz and the CAPM," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 346(1), pages 673-691, March.
    4. Linnenluecke, Martina K. & Chen, Xiaoyan & Ling, Xin & Smith, Tom & Zhu, Yushu, 2017. "Research in finance: A review of influential publications and a research agenda," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 188-199.
    5. Gourieroux, C. & Monfort, A., 2005. "The econometrics of efficient portfolios," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 1-41, January.
    6. Smimou, K. & Khallouli, W., 2015. "Does the Euro affect the dynamic relation between stock market liquidity and the business cycle?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 125-153.
    7. Vayanos, Dimitri & Wang, Jiang, 2013. "Market Liquidity—Theory and Empirical Evidence ," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1289-1361, Elsevier.
    8. Haim Levy & Enrico G. De Giorgi & Thorsten Hens, 2012. "Two Paradigms and Nobel Prizes in Economics: a Contradiction or Coexistence?," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 18(2), pages 163-182, March.
    9. Jagjeev Dosanjh, 2017. "Exchange Initiatives and Market Efficiency: Evidence from the Australian Securities Exchange," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 1-2017, January-A.
    10. repec:uts:finphd:34 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Chordia, Tarun & Shivakumar, L & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 2000. "Liquidity Dynamics Across Small and Large Firms," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt2zs4b4j4, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
    12. Smimou, K., 2014. "Consumer attitudes, stock market liquidity, and the macro economy: A Canadian perspective," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 186-209.
    13. van Dijk, Mathijs A., 2011. "Is size dead? A review of the size effect in equity returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 3263-3274.
    14. Mona Mortazian, 2022. "Liquidity and Volatility of Stocks Moved from the Main Market to the Alternative Investment Market (AIM)," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 29(2), pages 195-220, June.
    15. repec:fau:fauart:v:65:y:2015:i:1:p:84-104 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Amir Amel†Zadeh, 2011. "The Return of the Size Anomaly: Evidence from the German Stock Market," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 17(1), pages 145-182, January.
    17. De Cesari, Amedeo & Espenlaub, Susanne & Khurshed, Arif, 2011. "Stock repurchases and treasury share sales: Do they stabilize price and enhance liquidity?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 1558-1579.
    18. Klein, Peter, 2004. "The capital gain lock-in effect and perfect substitutes," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(12), pages 2765-2783, December.
    19. Peñaranda, Francisco & Sentana, Enrique, 2012. "Spanning tests in return and stochastic discount factor mean–variance frontiers: A unifying approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 170(2), pages 303-324.
    20. Allen, D.E. & McAleer, M.J. & Powell, R.J. & Singh, A.K., 2015. "Down-side Risk Metrics as Portfolio Diversification Strategies across the GFC," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI2015-32, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    21. Lin, Zih-Ying & Chang, Chuang-Chang & Wang, Yaw-Huei, 2018. "The impacts of asymmetric information and short sales on the illiquidity risk premium in the stock option market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 152-165.
    22. Miralles-Marcelo, José Luis & Miralles-Quirós, María del Mar & Miralles-Quirós, José Luis, 2012. "Asset pricing with idiosyncratic risk: The Spanish case," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 261-271.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:17:y:2008:i:5:p:1036-1054. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620166 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.