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Fuzzy value-at-risk and expected shortfall for portfolios with heavy-tailed returns

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  • Mbairadjim Moussa, A.
  • Sadefo Kamdem, J.
  • Terraza, M.

Abstract

This paper is concerned with linear portfolio value-at-risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) computation when the portfolio risk factors are leptokurtic, imprecise and/or vague. Following Yoshida (2009), the risk factors are modeled as fuzzy random variables in order to handle both their random variability and their vagueness. We discuss and extend the Yoshida model to some non-Gaussian distributions and provide associated ES. Secondly, assuming that the risk factors' degree of imprecision changes over time, original fuzzy portfolio VaR and ES models are introduced. For a given subjectivity level fixed by the investor, these models allow the computation of a pessimistic and an optimistic estimation of the value-at-risk and of the expected shortfall. Finally, some empirical examples carried out on three portfolios constituted by some chosen French stocks, show the effectiveness of the proposed methods.

Suggested Citation

  • Mbairadjim Moussa, A. & Sadefo Kamdem, J. & Terraza, M., 2014. "Fuzzy value-at-risk and expected shortfall for portfolios with heavy-tailed returns," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 247-256.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:39:y:2014:i:c:p:247-256
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2014.02.036
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sadefo Kamdem, J., 2009. "[Delta]-VaR and [Delta]-TVaR for portfolios with mixture of elliptic distributions risk factors and DCC," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 325-336, June.
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    5. Acerbi, Carlo & Tasche, Dirk, 2002. "On the coherence of expected shortfall," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1487-1503, July.
    6. Benoit Mandelbrot, 2015. "The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: THE WORLD SCIENTIFIC HANDBOOK OF FUTURES MARKETS, chapter 3, pages 39-78 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
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    9. Paul Glasserman & Philip Heidelberger & Perwez Shahabuddin, 2002. "Portfolio Value-at-Risk with Heavy-Tailed Risk Factors," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(3), pages 239-269.
    10. Jose A. Lopez & Christian Walter, 2000. "Evaluating covariance matrix forecasts in a value-at-risk framework," Working Paper Series 2000-21, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dobrislav Dobrev∗ & Travis D. Nesmith & Dong Hwan Oh, 2017. "Accurate Evaluation of Expected Shortfall for Linear Portfolios with Elliptically Distributed Risk Factors," Journal of Risk and Financial Management, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 10(1), pages 1-14, February.
    2. Jaworski, Piotr & Liberadzki, Kamil & Liberadzki, Marcin, 2017. "How does issuing contingent convertible bonds improve bank's solvency? A Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 162-168.

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