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Analysis of Well-to-Wheel fleet-wide emissions integrated with an automotive market scenario prediction model

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  • Jo, Seongin
  • Chong, Hwan soo
  • Park, Suhan

Abstract

This study quantitatively analyzed fleet-level Well-to-Wheel (WtW) greenhouse gas emissions by developing scenarios with different vehicle-type distributions for the road transport sector in South Korea. In addition, it assessed the sensitivity and emission reduction effects associated with changes in the market share of internal combustion engine vehicles, hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), and battery electric vehicles (BEVs), as well as variations in electricity and fossil fuel emission factors. The analysis found that expanding the deployment of HEVs and BEVs effectively reduces Pump-to-Wheel emissions. However, an increased share of BEVs can lead to higher Well-to-Pump emissions due to the increase in electricity consumption, potentially offsetting the overall WtW reduction benefits. In scenarios with a high proportion of BEVs, improvements in the electricity emission factor significantly influence WtW emissions. The findings confirm that the most effective emission reductions occur when vehicle electrification is accompanied by decarbonization of the energy supply.

Suggested Citation

  • Jo, Seongin & Chong, Hwan soo & Park, Suhan, 2025. "Analysis of Well-to-Wheel fleet-wide emissions integrated with an automotive market scenario prediction model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 337(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:337:y:2025:i:c:s0360544225042148
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2025.138572
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