Well–to–wheel analysis of energy efficiency & CO2 emissions for hybrids & EVs in India: Current trends & forecasting for 2030

A comprehensive Well–to–Wheel (WTW) analysis is performed for three electricity generation scenarios to evaluate energy efficiency and CO2 emissions for twelve vehicle–fuel configurations of a passenger sedan in the Indian context. The study aims to assess potential fuel–powertrain combinations to tackle pollution problems associated with present–day vehicle technologies. The Well–to–Tank and WTW analyses are conducted using GREET, whereas the Tank–to–Wheel analysis is performed by simulating powertrains over Modified Indian Drive Cycle using Autonomie® software. The analysis covers gasoline, diesel, and compressed natural gas (CNG) powered conventional vehicles, series hybrids (HEVs), and plug–in series hybrids (PHEVs); battery–electric vehicles (BEVs); and hydrogen fuel cell–powered HEVs and PHEVs. For the current electricity generation scenario, the diesel HEV achieves the maximum WTW efficiency (26%), and the CNG HEV exhibits the lowest WTW CO2 emissions (94 g/km). BEV's low WTW efficiency values (19.6%) and high WTW CO2 emissions (136 g/km) for the current electricity generation scenario are attributed to the predominance of coal in India's electricity generation mix (∼70%) and the substantial transmission and distribution losses (20.66%). For the year 2030, assuming that 44% of India's electricity is generated from renewable sources, PHEVs and BEV show substantial improvement, with the diesel PHEV showing maximum WTW efficiency (28%) and WTW CO2 emissions being the lowest (86 g/km) for the CNG PHEV. For hydrogen production scenarios, the fuel cell PHEV exhibits the highest WTW efficiency (33%) with zero WTW CO2 emissions when hydrogen is produced via the electrolysis of water at refuelling stations using 100% renewable energy.