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An integrated assessment system for regional carbon emissions: Insights into China's sustainable development

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  • Liu, Menglin
  • Zhao, Qinghua
  • Lang, Zhikai
  • Du, Xueping
  • Wu, Jiangtao
  • Meng, Xianyang

Abstract

The rapid economic growth in China has caused a considerable rise in carbon emissions, posing major challenges to sustainable development. Traditional carbon emission analysis methods are limited to provide insights and projections for specific regions. Moreover, traditional methods usually require extensive data and complex operations, which restricts their practical application by policymakers. This study constructs a Carbon Emission Synergistic Development System (CESDS) framework, integrating an accounting model, a decomposition method, a System Dynamics model, and a decision-making method, for optimizing China's development paths. This study projects that China's carbon emissions will peak at 12.193 billion tons CO2 by 2030, subsequently decreasing to 8.224 billion tons by 2050. Carbon emission intensity is expected to reduce from 3.1774 tCO2/104 RMB in 2000 to 0.3558 tCO2/104 RMB in 2050. Energy intensity changes have the most substantial impact on mitigating CO2 emissions. The optimal development path for China from 2025 to 2050 is identified, supported by policy recommendations on energy transition, social progress, and environmental protection. The CESDS framework offers a practical and accurate tool for regional carbon emission analysis and policy formulation. The implementation of CESDS can assist cities, regions, and countries in making a substantial contribution to global sustainable development initiatives.

Suggested Citation

  • Liu, Menglin & Zhao, Qinghua & Lang, Zhikai & Du, Xueping & Wu, Jiangtao & Meng, Xianyang, 2025. "An integrated assessment system for regional carbon emissions: Insights into China's sustainable development," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 317(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:317:y:2025:i:c:s0360544225003354
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2025.134693
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