IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v302y2024ics0360544224015330.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A new energy-economy-environment modeling framework: Insights from decarbonization of the Turkish power Sector towards net-zero Emission targets

Author

Listed:
  • Kat, B.
  • Şahin, Ü.
  • Teimourzadeh, S.
  • Tör, O.B.
  • Voyvoda, E.
  • Yeldan, A.E.

Abstract

The power sector plays a crucial role towards decarbonization for many economies, especially in line with the net-zero targets to limit global warming to 1.5 °C. Technical constraints intrinsic to the sector, penetration of new technologies, investment and operational costs, and its connections with the rest of the economy make the power sector a complex system to analyze. Although there are numerous studies to integrate bottom-up power sector technology models with top-down macroeconomic models, this study is the first attempt to link the three separate and interrelated models within a single framework: an electricity market simulation model, a generation expansion planning model, and an applied general equilibrium model. The proposed framework is implemented to analyze a feasible decarbonization scenario for Türkiye, with a particular focus on the power sector. The results suggest that, given the existing capacity and potential for renewables, Türkiye can achieve a coal-phase out by early 2030s, alongside a trajectory towards a full-fledged fossil fuel phase-out in power generation. The results also indicate that while installed capacity and generation of coal-fired power plants are reduced, real GDP and electricity demand can be maintained and the carbon dioxide emissions from the power sector could be reduced by as much as 50% in 2030 compared to 2018 levels.

Suggested Citation

  • Kat, B. & Şahin, Ü. & Teimourzadeh, S. & Tör, O.B. & Voyvoda, E. & Yeldan, A.E., 2024. "A new energy-economy-environment modeling framework: Insights from decarbonization of the Turkish power Sector towards net-zero Emission targets," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 302(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:302:y:2024:i:c:s0360544224015330
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2024.131760
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544224015330
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2024.131760?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chang, Miguel & Lund, Henrik & Thellufsen, Jakob Zinck & Østergaard, Poul Alberg, 2023. "Perspectives on purpose-driven coupling of energy system models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 265(C).
    2. Herc, Luka & Pfeifer, Antun & Duić, Neven & Wang, Fei, 2022. "Economic viability of flexibility options for smart energy systems with high penetration of renewable energy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 252(C).
    3. Kat, Bora & Paltsev, Sergey & Yuan, Mei, 2018. "Turkish energy sector development and the Paris Agreement goals: A CGE model assessment," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 84-96.
    4. Osorio, Sebastian & Pietzcker, Robert C. & Pahle, Michael & Edenhofer, Ottmar, 2020. "How to deal with the risks of phasing out coal in Germany," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    5. Ram, Manish & Aghahosseini, Arman & Breyer, Christian, 2020. "Job creation during the global energy transition towards 100% renewable power system by 2050," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    6. Saffari, Mohammadali & Crownshaw, Timothy & McPherson, Madeleine, 2023. "Assessing the potential of demand-side flexibility to improve the performance of electricity systems under high variable renewable energy penetration," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 272(C).
    7. Saygin, D. & Gielen, D.J. & Draeck, M. & Worrell, E. & Patel, M.K., 2014. "Assessment of the technical and economic potentials of biomass use for the production of steam, chemicals and polymers," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 1153-1167.
    8. Uddin, Moslem & Romlie, Mohd Fakhizan & Abdullah, Mohd Faris & Abd Halim, Syahirah & Abu Bakar, Ab Halim & Chia Kwang, Tan, 2018. "A review on peak load shaving strategies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 82(P3), pages 3323-3332.
    9. Jeffrey C Peters, 2016. "The GTAP-Power Data Base: Disaggregating the Electricity Sector in the GTAP Data Base," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 1(1), pages 209-250, June.
    10. Heinrichs, Heidi Ursula & Schumann, Diana & Vögele, Stefan & Biß, Klaus Hendrik & Shamon, Hawal & Markewitz, Peter & Többen, Johannes & Gillessen, Bastian & Gotzens, Fabian & Ernst, Anna, 2017. "Integrated assessment of a phase-out of coal-fired power plants in Germany," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 285-305.
    11. Colmenar-Santos, Antonio & Muñoz-Gómez, Antonio-Miguel & Rosales-Asensio, Enrique & López-Rey, África, 2019. "Electric vehicle charging strategy to support renewable energy sources in Europe 2050 low-carbon scenario," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 61-74.
    12. Tapia-Ahumada, Karen & Octaviano, Claudia & Rausch, Sebastian & Pérez-Arriaga, Ignacio, 2015. "Modeling intermittent renewable electricity technologies in general equilibrium models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 242-262.
    13. Böhringer, Christoph & Rutherford, Thomos F., 2009. "Integrated assessment of energy policies: Decomposing top-down and bottom-up," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(9), pages 1648-1661, September.
    14. Kat, Bora, 2023. "Clean energy transition in the Turkish power sector: A techno-economic analysis with a high-resolution power expansion model," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    15. Saygin, D. & Worrell, E. & Patel, M.K. & Gielen, D.J., 2011. "Benchmarking the energy use of energy-intensive industries in industrialized and in developing countries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 6661-6673.
    16. Angel Aguiar & Maksym Chepeliev & Erwin L. Corong & Robert McDougall & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, 2019. "The GTAP Data Base: Version 10," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 4(1), pages 1-27, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Taran Faehn & Gabriel Bachner & Robert Beach & Jean Chateau & Shinichiro Fujimori & Madanmohan Ghosh & Meriem Hamdi-Cherif & Elisa Lanzi & Sergey Paltsev & Toon Vandyck & Bruno Cunha & Rafael Garaffa , 2020. "Capturing Key Energy and Emission Trends in CGE models: Assessment of Status and Remaining Challenges," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 5(1), pages 196-272, June.
    2. Kat, Bora, 2023. "Clean energy transition in the Turkish power sector: A techno-economic analysis with a high-resolution power expansion model," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    3. Fernández-Amador, Octavio & Francois, Joseph F. & Oberdabernig, Doris A. & Tomberger, Patrick, 2023. "Energy footprints and the international trade network: A new dataset. Is the European Union doing it better?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 204(PA).
    4. Andersen, Kristoffer S. & Termansen, Lars B. & Gargiulo, Maurizio & Ó Gallachóirc, Brian P., 2019. "Bridging the gap using energy services: Demonstrating a novel framework for soft linking top-down and bottom-up models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 277-293.
    5. Chang, Miguel & Lund, Henrik & Thellufsen, Jakob Zinck & Østergaard, Poul Alberg, 2023. "Perspectives on purpose-driven coupling of energy system models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 265(C).
    6. Chepeliev, Maksym, 2020. "GTAP-Power 10 Data Base: A Technical Note," GTAP Research Memoranda 5938, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    7. Diamantis Koutsandreas & Evangelos Spiliotis & Haris Doukas & John Psarras, 2021. "What Is the Macroeconomic Impact of Higher Decarbonization Speeds? The Case of Greece," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-19, April.
    8. Yuan, Mei & Tapia-Ahumada, Karen & Paltsev, Sergey, 2020. "Challenges and Opportunities Economy-Wide Decarbonization Pathways in California," Conference papers 333179, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    9. Winchester, Niven & White, Dominic, 2022. "The Climate PoLicy ANalysis (C-PLAN) Model, Version 1.0," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    10. Böhringer, Christoph & Peterson, Sonja & Rutherford, Thomas F. & Schneider, Jan & Winkler, Malte, 2021. "Climate policies after Paris: Pledge, Trade and Recycle," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    11. Dolf Gielen & Deger Saygin & Emanuele Taibi & Jean‐Pierre Birat, 2020. "Renewables‐based decarbonization and relocation of iron and steel making: A case study," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 24(5), pages 1113-1125, October.
    12. Christoph Boehringer & Sonja Peterson & Thomas F. Rutherford & Jan Schneider & Malte Winkler, 2021. "Climate Policies after Paris: Pledge, Trade and Recycle Insights from the 36th Energy Modeling Forum Study (EMF36)," Working Papers V-434-21, University of Oldenburg, Department of Economics, revised May 2021.
    13. Yuan, Mei & Tapia-Ahumada, Karen & Reilly, John, 2021. "The role of cross-border electricity trade in transition to a low-carbon economy in the Northeastern U.S," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    14. Avraam, Charalampos & Bistline, John E.T. & Brown, Maxwell & Vaillancourt, Kathleen & Siddiqui, Sauleh, 2021. "North American natural gas market and infrastructure developments under different mechanisms of renewable policy coordination," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 148(PB).
    15. Marginson, Sam, 2020. "Global economic implications of the Nationally Determined Contributions of the Paris Agreement," Conference papers 333164, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    16. Missbach, Leonard & Steckel, Jan Christoph & Vogt-Schilb, Adrien, 2024. "Cash transfers in the context of carbon pricing reforms in Latin America and the Caribbean," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    17. Scott Kelly, 2011. "Do homes that are more energy efficient consume less energy?: A structural equation model for England's residential sector," Working Papers EPRG 1117, Energy Policy Research Group, Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge.
    18. Oyewo, Ayobami Solomon & Solomon, A.A. & Bogdanov, Dmitrii & Aghahosseini, Arman & Mensah, Theophilus Nii Odai & Ram, Manish & Breyer, Christian, 2021. "Just transition towards defossilised energy systems for developing economies: A case study of Ethiopia," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 346-365.
    19. Winchester, Niven & Reilly, John M., 2020. "The economic and emissions benefits of engineered wood products in a low-carbon future," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    20. Osorio, Sebastian & Pietzcker, Robert C. & Pahle, Michael & Edenhofer, Ottmar, 2020. "How to deal with the risks of phasing out coal in Germany," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:302:y:2024:i:c:s0360544224015330. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.