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Research on regional differences of China's new energy vehicles promotion policies: A perspective of sales volume forecasting

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  • Liu, Bingchun
  • Song, Chengyuan
  • Wang, Qingshan
  • Zhang, Xinming
  • Chen, Jiali

Abstract

After breaking through the technical bottleneck in the early stage of development, China's NEVs (New Energy Vehicles) industry has ushered in breakthrough growth under the joint action of multiple promotion policies. To improve the market penetration of NEVs, verify whether the market penetration of NEVs can reach the target of 20% in 2025. Taking the sales volume of NEVs as a decision reference, this study proposes a multi-factor prediction model integrating DWT (Discrete Wavelet Transform) and BiLSTM (Bidirectional Long Short Term Memory). The optimal model is obtained through comparative experiments, the MAE, MAPE, and RMSE values of the DWT-BiLSTM model are 0.811, 5.671, and 1.001. Through the analysis of the average impact value of three representative cities, the relative importance of each input index is discussed quantitatively. From 2020 to 2025, the sales volume of NEVs in China will show growth trends in varying degrees under three scenarios, but none of them can achieve the goal of 20% market penetration of NEVs in 2025; Corresponding policy suggestions are put forward for the three types of cities, including adjusting the license quota policy, accelerating the construction of charging infrastructure and delaying the decline of subsidies for NEV.

Suggested Citation

  • Liu, Bingchun & Song, Chengyuan & Wang, Qingshan & Zhang, Xinming & Chen, Jiali, 2022. "Research on regional differences of China's new energy vehicles promotion policies: A perspective of sales volume forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 248(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:248:y:2022:i:c:s0360544222004443
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2022.123541
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    3. Liu, Wei & Chen, Xiao & Zhang, Jihong, 2023. "The Russia-Ukraine conflict and the automotive energy transition: Empirical evidence from China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 284(C).
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    5. Jinru Wang & Zhenwu Shi & Jie Liu & Hongrui Zhang, 2023. "Promoting “NEVs Pilot Policy” as an Effective Way for Reducing Urban Transport Carbon Emissions: Empirical Evidence from China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-24, July.
    6. Hsiao, Cody Yu-Ling & Yang, Rui & Zheng, Xin & Chiu, Yi-Bin, 2023. "Evaluations of policy contagion for new energy vehicle industry in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).

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