Crude oil price volatility and unemployment in the United States
This study focuses on the issue of whether fluctuations in the price of crude oil have affected employment and the rate of unemployment in the U.S. After reviewing previous assessments of the issue, the existence of an empirical relationship between the rate of unemployment and crude oil price volatility is established using tests for cointegration. Subsequently, the nature of the relationship is estimated with results suggesting that at least three full years are required before measurable impacts of a percentage change in the real price of crude oil on the change in unemployment are exhausted. Finally, the structural stability of the functional relationship between change in unemployment and volatility of the price of crude oil and the percentage change in gross national product is examined.
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