Crude oil price volatility and unemployment in the United States
This study focuses on the issue of whether fluctuations in the price of crude oil have affected employment and the rate of unemployment in the U.S. After reviewing previous assessments of the issue, the existence of an empirical relationship between the rate of unemployment and crude oil price volatility is established using tests for cointegration. Subsequently, the nature of the relationship is estimated with results suggesting that at least three full years are required before measurable impacts of a percentage change in the real price of crude oil on the change in unemployment are exhausted. Finally, the structural stability of the functional relationship between change in unemployment and volatility of the price of crude oil and the percentage change in gross national product is examined.
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- Robert E. Hall, 1986. "Market Structure and Macroeconomic Fluctuations," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 17(2), pages 285-338.
- Banerjee, Anindya & Dolado, Juan J. & Galbraith, John W. & Hendry, David, 1993. "Co-integration, Error Correction, and the Econometric Analysis of Non-Stationary Data," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198288107, May.
- Geweke, John, 1984. "Inference and causality in economic time series models," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 19, pages 1101-1144 Elsevier.
- Barro, Robert J, 1984. "Rational Expectations and Macroeconomics in 1984," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(2), pages 179-82, May.
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