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Crude oil price volatility and unemployment in the United States


  • Uri, Noel D.


This study focuses on the issue of whether fluctuations in the price of crude oil have affected employment and the rate of unemployment in the U.S. After reviewing previous assessments of the issue, the existence of an empirical relationship between the rate of unemployment and crude oil price volatility is established using tests for cointegration. Subsequently, the nature of the relationship is estimated with results suggesting that at least three full years are required before measurable impacts of a percentage change in the real price of crude oil on the change in unemployment are exhausted. Finally, the structural stability of the functional relationship between change in unemployment and volatility of the price of crude oil and the percentage change in gross national product is examined.

Suggested Citation

  • Uri, Noel D., 1996. "Crude oil price volatility and unemployment in the United States," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 29-38.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:21:y:1996:i:1:p:29-38 DOI: 10.1016/0360-5442(95)00086-0

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Banerjee, Anindya & Dolado, Juan J. & Galbraith, John W. & Hendry, David, 1993. "Co-integration, Error Correction, and the Econometric Analysis of Non-Stationary Data," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198288107, June.
    2. Geweke, John, 1984. "Inference and causality in economic time series models," Handbook of Econometrics,in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 19, pages 1101-1144 Elsevier.
    3. Barro, Robert J, 1984. "Rational Expectations and Macroeconomics in 1984," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(2), pages 179-182, May.
    4. Robert E. Hall, 1986. "Market Structure and Macroeconomic Fluctuations," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 17(2), pages 285-338.
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    Cited by:

    1. Chen, Hao & Liao, Hua & Tang, Bao-Jun & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2016. "Impacts of OPEC's political risk on the international crude oil prices: An empirical analysis based on the SVAR models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 42-49.
    2. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Chang, Chun-Ping, 2007. "The impact of energy consumption on economic growth: Evidence from linear and nonlinear models in Taiwan," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 32(12), pages 2282-2294.
    3. Zhang, Chuanguo & Chen, Xiaoqing, 2011. "The impact of global oil price shocks on China’s stock returns: Evidence from the ARJI(-ht)-EGARCH model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 6627-6633.
    4. Li, Qiming & Cheng, Ke & Yang, Xiaoguang, 2017. "Response pattern of stock returns to international oil price shocks: From the perspective of China’s oil industrial chain," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 185(P2), pages 1821-1831.
    5. Cong, Rong-Gang & Wei, Yi-Ming & Jiao, Jian-Lin & Fan, Ying, 2008. "Relationships between oil price shocks and stock market: An empirical analysis from China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 3544-3553, September.
    6. Greene, David L & Jones, Donald W & Leiby, Paul N, 1998. "The outlook for US oil dependence," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 55-69, January.
    7. Ji, Qiang & Guo, Jian-Feng, 2015. "Oil price volatility and oil-related events: An Internet concern study perspective," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 256-264.
    8. He, Ling-Yun & Chen, Shu-Peng, 2010. "Are crude oil markets multifractal? Evidence from MF-DFA and MF-SSA perspectives," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(16), pages 3218-3229.
    9. repec:use:tkiwps:11 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. repec:eee:energy:v:139:y:2017:i:c:p:975-990 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Lin, Boqiang & Wesseh, Presley K. & Appiah, Michael Owusu, 2014. "Oil price fluctuation, volatility spillover and the Ghanaian equity market: Implication for portfolio management and hedging effectiveness," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 172-182.

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