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Opportunities and risks in Turkmenistan’s quest for diversification of its gas export routes

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  • Lee, Yusin

Abstract

This paper applies two hypotheses regarding weak state foreign policy to analyze the opportunities and risks in Turkmenistan’s quest to diversify its gas export routes, especially since 2006. The first hypothesis, related to opportunities, is that competition among major powers over the allegiance of weak states strengthens their bargaining power. The second hypothesis, related to risks, is that the diversification policies of weak states in times of decreasing competition among great powers incur the danger of simply replacing an old master with a new one. I argue that while the first hypothesis is useful in explaining the opportunities of Turkmenistan’s diversification policies, especially before early 2009, the second hypothesis is helpful in accounting for the risks of these policies after early 2009. In other words, competition among four major powers, Russia, China, the EU, and India, over Turkmenistan’s gas pipeline system before early 2009 strengthened the country’s bargaining power. In contrast, Turkmenistan’s diversification policies in times of fading competition after early 2009 have left it increasingly exposed to the potential risk of replacing its old master, Russia, with a new one, China.

Suggested Citation

  • Lee, Yusin, 2014. "Opportunities and risks in Turkmenistan’s quest for diversification of its gas export routes," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 330-339.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:74:y:2014:i:c:p:330-339
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2014.08.003
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Elman, Miriam Fendius, 1995. "The Foreign Policies of Small States: Challenging Neorealism in Its Own Backyard," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(2), pages 171-217, April.
    2. Boussena, S. & Locatelli, C., 2013. "Energy institutional and organisational changes in EU and Russia: Revisiting gas relations," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 180-189.
    3. Stern, Jonathan, 2005. "The Future of Russian Gas and Gazprom," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780197300312.
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    Cited by:

    1. Vivoda, Vlado, 2022. "LNG export diversification and demand security: A comparative study of major exporters," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    2. Hafeznia, Hamed & Pourfayaz, Fathollah & Maleki, Akbar, 2017. "An assessment of Iran's natural gas potential for transition toward low-carbon economy," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 71-81.
    3. Kong, Zhaoyang & Lu, Xi & Jiang, Qingzhe & Dong, Xiucheng & Liu, Guixian & Elbot, Noah & Zhang, Zhonghua & Chen, Shi, 2019. "Assessment of import risks for natural gas and its implication for optimal importing strategies: A case study of China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 11-18.
    4. Rasoulinezhad, Ehsan & Sung, Jinsok & Talipova, Amina & Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad, 2022. "Analyzing energy trade policy in Central Asia using the intercountry trade force approach," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 441-454.
    5. Zhao, Yabo & Liu, Xiaofeng & Wang, Shaojian & Ge, Yuejing, 2019. "Energy relations between China and the countries along the Belt and Road: An analysis of the distribution of energy resources and interdependence relationships," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 133-144.
    6. Yusin Lee, 2019. "Political Viability of the Russia-North Korea-South Korea Gas Pipeline Project: An Analysis of the Role of the U.S," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-17, May.
    7. Dastan, Seyit Ali, 2018. "Negotiation of a cross-border natural gas pipeline: An analytical contribution to the discussions on Turkish Stream," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 749-760.
    8. Lee, Yusin, 2017. "Interdependence, issue importance, and the 2009 Russia-Ukraine gas conflict," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 199-209.
    9. Natalia Iwaszczuk & Jacek Wolak & Aleksander Iwaszczuk, 2021. "Turkmenistan’s Gas Sector Development Scenarios Based on Econometric and SWOT Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-18, May.
    10. Ali Nowrouzi & Mostafa Panahi & Hamidreza Ghaffarzadeh & Abtin Ataei, 2019. "Iran’s gas export portfolio risk analysis based on the development of dependency risk framework," Energy & Environment, , vol. 30(4), pages 629-640, June.
    11. Vatansever, Adnan, 2017. "Is Russia building too many pipelines? Explaining Russia's oil and gas export strategy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 1-11.

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