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Are major economies on track to achieve their pledges for 2020? An assessment of domestic climate and energy policies

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  • Roelfsema, Mark
  • Elzen, Michel den
  • Höhne, Niklas
  • Hof, Andries F.
  • Braun, Nadine
  • Fekete, Hanna
  • Böttcher, Hannes
  • Brandsma, Ruut
  • Larkin, Julia

Abstract

Many of the major greenhouse gas emitting countries have planned and/or implemented domestic mitigation policies, such as carbon taxes, feed-in tariffs, or standards. This study analyses whether the most effective national climate and energy policies are sufficient to stay on track for meeting the emission reduction proposals (pledges) that countries made for 2020. The analysis shows that domestic policies of India, China and Russia are projected to lead to lower emission levels than the pledged levels. Australia's and the EU's nationally legally binding policy framework is likely to deliver their unconditional pledges, but not the conditional ones. The situation is rather unclear for Japan, South Korea, Brazil and Indonesia. We project that policies of Canada and the USA will reduce 2020 emission levels, but additional policies are probably needed to deliver their pledges in full. The analysis also shows that countries are implementing policies or targets in various areas to a varying degree: all major countries have set renewable energy targets; many have recently implemented efficiency standards for cars, and new emission trading systems are emerging.

Suggested Citation

  • Roelfsema, Mark & Elzen, Michel den & Höhne, Niklas & Hof, Andries F. & Braun, Nadine & Fekete, Hanna & Böttcher, Hannes & Brandsma, Ruut & Larkin, Julia, 2014. "Are major economies on track to achieve their pledges for 2020? An assessment of domestic climate and energy policies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 781-796.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:67:y:2014:i:c:p:781-796
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2013.11.055
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Michel Elzen & Annemiek Admiraal & Mark Roelfsema & Heleen Soest & Andries F. Hof & Nicklas Forsell, 2016. "Contribution of the G20 economies to the global impact of the Paris agreement climate proposals," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 137(3), pages 655-665, August.
    3. Heleen L. van Soest & Harmen Sytze de Boer & Mark Roelfsema & Michel G.J. den Elzen & Annemiek Admiraal & Detlef P. van Vuuren & Andries F. Hof & Maarten van den Berg & Mathijs J.H.M. Harmsen & David , 2017. "Early action on Paris Agreement allows for more time to change energy systems," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 144(2), pages 165-179, September.
    4. Vera, Sonia & Sauma, Enzo, 2015. "Does a carbon tax make sense in countries with still a high potential for energy efficiency? Comparison between the reducing-emissions effects of carbon tax and energy efficiency measures in the Chile," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 478-488.
    5. Piero Morseletto & Frank Biermann & Philipp Pattberg, 2017. "Governing by targets: reductio ad unum and evolution of the two-degree climate target," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 17(5), pages 655-676, October.
    6. Li, Jun & Hamdi-Cherif, Meriem & Cassen, Christophe, 2017. "Aligning domestic policies with international coordination in a post-Paris global climate regime: A case for China," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 258-274.
    7. Lima, Fátima & Nunes, Manuel Lopes & Cunha, Jorge & Lucena, André F.P., 2016. "A cross-country assessment of energy-related CO2 emissions: An extended Kaya Index Decomposition Approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 115(P2), pages 1361-1374.
    8. Corey J. A. Bradshaw & Barry W. Brook, 2016. "Implications of Australia's Population Policy for Future Greenhouse Gas Emissions Targets," Asia and the Pacific Policy Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(2), pages 249-265, May.
    9. Liobikienė, Genovaitė & Butkus, Mindaugas, 2017. "The European Union possibilities to achieve targets of Europe 2020 and Paris agreement climate policy," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 298-309.
    10. Schleich, Joachim & Faure, Corinne, 2017. "Explaining citizens’ perceptions of international climate-policy relevance," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 62-71.
    11. Heleen van Soest & Lara Aleluia Reis & Detlef van Vuuren & Christoph Bertram & Laurent Drouet & Jessica Jewell & Elmar Kriegler & Gunnar Luderer & Keywan Riahi & Joeri Rogelj & Massimo Tavoni & Michel, 2015. "Regional Low-Emission Pathways from Global Models," Working Papers 2015.110, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    12. Sakamoto, Tomoyuki & Takase, Kae & Matsuhashi, Ryuji & Managi, Shunsuke, 2016. "Baseline of the projection under a structural change in energy demand," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 274-289.
    13. Fekete, Hanna & Kuramochi, Takeshi & Roelfsema, Mark & Elzen, Michel den & Forsell, Nicklas & Höhne, Niklas & Luna, Lisa & Hans, Frederic & Sterl, Sebastian & Olivier, Jos & van Soest, Heleen & Frank,, 2021. "A review of successful climate change mitigation policies in major emitting economies and the potential of global replication," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).

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