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Analysing the greenhouse gas emission reductions of the mitigation action plans by non-Annex I countries by 2020


  • den Elzen, Michel G.J.
  • Hof, Andries F.
  • Roelfsema, Mark


As part of the Cancún Agreements, 45 non-Annex I countries have pledged mitigation action plans, of which 16 countries, including the seven major emitting countries, have submitted quantified mitigation actions. Many countries published their business-as-usual (BAU) emissions to which their pledges are connected. This study analyses the expected emission levels from the pledged, quantified actions, and whether these are consistent with achieving the 2°C target. One of the main findings is that new BAU emission projections have led to about 2.5GtCO2eq higher emission levels expected from pledges by non-Annex I countries. The emissions for non-Annex I countries as a group would be between 9% and 12% below our 2020 BAU emission projections, for, respectively, the unconditional and conditional pledges. This result might be conservative as we assume countries without quantified pledges follow BAU. This implies that for a medium chance of achieving 2°C, Annex I countries would need to reduce its emissions by about 50% below 1990 levels by 2020. If Annex I countries as a whole would reduce emissions by 13% to 18% below 1990 levels, as expected from the pledges, the reduction of non-Annex I countries should be 22% to 34% below BAU levels for a medium chance of achieving 2°C.

Suggested Citation

  • den Elzen, Michel G.J. & Hof, Andries F. & Roelfsema, Mark, 2013. "Analysing the greenhouse gas emission reductions of the mitigation action plans by non-Annex I countries by 2020," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 633-643.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:56:y:2013:i:c:p:633-643
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2013.01.035

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Detlef Vuuren & Elke Stehfest & Michel Elzen & Tom Kram & Jasper Vliet & Sebastiaan Deetman & Morna Isaac & Kees Klein Goldewijk & Andries Hof & Angelica Mendoza Beltran & Rineke Oostenrijk & Bas Ruij, 2011. "RCP2.6: exploring the possibility to keep global mean temperature increase below 2°C," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 95-116, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Roelfsema, Mark & Elzen, Michel den & Höhne, Niklas & Hof, Andries F. & Braun, Nadine & Fekete, Hanna & Böttcher, Hannes & Brandsma, Ruut & Larkin, Julia, 2014. "Are major economies on track to achieve their pledges for 2020? An assessment of domestic climate and energy policies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 781-796.
    2. Hu, Guangyu & Rong, Ke & Shi, Yongjiang & Yu, Jing, 2014. "Sustaining the emerging carbon trading industry development: A business ecosystem approach of carbon traders," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 587-597.
    3. Elzen, Michel den & Fekete, Hanna & Höhne, Niklas & Admiraal, Annemiek & Forsell, Nicklas & Hof, Andries F. & Olivier, Jos G.J. & Roelfsema, Mark & van Soest, Heleen, 2016. "Greenhouse gas emissions from current and enhanced policies of China until 2030: Can emissions peak before 2030?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 224-236.
    4. Herrala, Risto & Goel, Rajeev K., 2016. "Sharing the emission reduction burden in an uneven world," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 29-39.
    5. A. F. Hof & M. G. J. Elzen & A. Mendoza Beltran, 2016. "The EU 40 % greenhouse gas emission reduction target by 2030 in perspective," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 16(3), pages 375-392, June.
    6. Beatriz Calzada Olvera, 2014. "The Millennium Development Goals after 2015: A Proposal for 2015-2030," Competence Centre on Money, Trade, Finance and Development 1401, Hochschule fuer Technik und Wirtschaft, Berlin.


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