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Renewable electricity generation in Germany: A meta-analysis of mitigation scenarios

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  • Schmid, Eva
  • Pahle, Michael
  • Knopf, Brigitte

Abstract

German energy policy targets envision a share of electricity from renewable energy sources (RES-E) of at least 80% in 2050. How can the transformation of the German electricity sector be achieved and at what costs? This paper addresses these questions by means of a meta-analysis of 10 recent model-based mitigation scenarios for Germany. It turns out that the scenarios exploit the three basic strategic options of increasing the share of RES-E – domestic RES-E generation, electricity demand reductions, and RES-E imports – to substantially different extents. Domestic RES-E generation increases in all scenarios, particularly from onshore and offshore wind. Scenarios that rely heavily on reducing electricity demand require a relatively low expansion of domestic RES-E generation. Despite detailed technical analyses, insights on the costs of the transformation remain limited. A discussion of underlying scenario assumptions reveals that it is unclear whether (i) RES-E and system integration technology development will be as cost-competitive as postulated, (ii) implicitly assumed institutional requirements will be realized, and (iii) relevant actors in the transformation process will be incentivized accordingly. Therefore, future research should pursue a thorough assessment of strategic options for transforming the German electricity system that consistently integrates technologies, institutions, and actors.

Suggested Citation

  • Schmid, Eva & Pahle, Michael & Knopf, Brigitte, 2013. "Renewable electricity generation in Germany: A meta-analysis of mitigation scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1151-1163.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:61:y:2013:i:c:p:1151-1163
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2013.06.105
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    5. Ueckerdt, Falko & Brecha, Robert & Luderer, Gunnar & Sullivan, Patrick & Schmid, Eva & Bauer, Nico & Böttger, Diana & Pietzcker, Robert, 2015. "Representing power sector variability and the integration of variable renewables in long-term energy-economy models using residual load duration curves," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 90(P2), pages 1799-1814.
    6. Schmid, Eva & Knopf, Brigitte, 2015. "Quantifying the long-term economic benefits of European electricity system integration," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 260-269.
    7. Hansen, Kenneth & Mathiesen, Brian Vad & Skov, Iva Ridjan, 2019. "Full energy system transition towards 100% renewable energy in Germany in 2050," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 1-13.
    8. Prina, Matteo Giacomo & Nastasi, Benedetto & Groppi, Daniele & Misconel, Steffi & Garcia, Davide Astiaso & Sparber, Wolfram, 2022. "Comparison methods of energy system frameworks, models and scenario results," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    9. Laugs, Gideon A.H. & Moll, Henri C., 2017. "A review of the bandwidth and environmental discourses of future energy scenarios: Shades of green and gray," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 520-530.
    10. Heinrichs, Heidi Ursula & Markewitz, Peter, 2017. "Long-term impacts of a coal phase-out in Germany as part of a greenhouse gas mitigation strategy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 192(C), pages 234-246.
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    13. Varone, Alberto & Ferrari, Michele, 2015. "Power to liquid and power to gas: An option for the German Energiewende," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 207-218.
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    16. Dillig, Marius & Jung, Manuel & Karl, Jürgen, 2016. "The impact of renewables on electricity prices in Germany – An estimation based on historic spot prices in the years 2011–2013," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 7-15.
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