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Parametric analysis of technology and policy tradeoffs for conventional and electric light-duty vehicles

Listed author(s):
  • Barter, Garrett E.
  • Reichmuth, David
  • Westbrook, Jessica
  • Malczynski, Leonard A.
  • West, Todd H.
  • Manley, Dawn K.
  • Guzman, Katherine D.
  • Edwards, Donna M.
Registered author(s):

    A parametric analysis is used to examine the supply demand interactions between the US light-duty vehicle (LDV) fleet, its fuels, and the corresponding primary energy sources through 2050. The analysis emphasizes competition between conventional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, including hybrids, and electric vehicles (EVs), represented by both plug-in hybrid and battery electric vehicles. We find that EV market penetration could double relative to our baseline case with policies to extend consumers' effective payback period to 7 years. EVs can also reduce per vehicle petroleum consumption by up to 5% with opportunities to increase that fraction at higher adoption rates. However, EVs have limited ability to reduce LDV greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions with the current energy source mix. Alone, EVs cannot drive compliance with the most aggressive GHG emission reduction targets, even if the electricity grid shifts towards natural gas powered sources. Since ICEs will dominate the LDV fleet for up to 40 years, conventional vehicle efficiency improvements have the greatest potential for reductions in LDV GHG emissions and petroleum consumption over this time. Specifically, achieving fleet average efficiencies of 72mpg or greater can reduce average GHG emissions by 70% and average petroleum consumption by 81%.

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    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421512003138
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    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Policy.

    Volume (Year): 46 (2012)
    Issue (Month): C ()
    Pages: 473-488

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:46:y:2012:i:c:p:473-488
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2012.04.013
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol

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    1. Axsen, Jonn & Burke, Andy & Kurani, Kenneth S, 2010. "Are Batteries Ready for Plug-in Hybrid Buyers?," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt7vh184rw, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
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    6. Jeroen Struben & John D Sterman, 2008. "Transition challenges for alternative fuel vehicle and transportation systems," Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 35(6), pages 1070-1097, November.
    7. Axsen, Jonn & Kurani, Kenneth S, 2010. "Anticipating plug-in hybrid vehicle energy impacts in California: Constructing consumer-informed recharge profiles," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt3h69n0cs, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    8. Eppstein, Margaret J. & Grover, David K. & Marshall, Jeffrey S. & Rizzo, Donna M., 2011. "An agent-based model to study market penetration of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 3789-3802, June.
    9. Axsen, Jonn & Kurani, Kenneth S. & Burke, Andrew, 2010. "Are batteries ready for plug-in hybrid buyers?," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 173-182, May.
    10. Calfee, John E., 1985. "Estimating the demand for electric automobiles using fully disaggregated probabilistic choice analysis," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 287-301, August.
    11. Greene, David L., 2011. "Uncertainty, loss aversion, and markets for energy efficiency," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 608-616, July.
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