IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/enepol/v37y2009i12p5037-5055.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

European energy security: The future of Norwegian natural gas production

Author

Listed:
  • Söderbergh, Bengt
  • Jakobsson, Kristofer
  • Aleklett, Kjell

Abstract

The European Union (EU) is expected to meet its future growing demand for natural gas by increased imports. In 2006, Norway had a 21% share of EU gas imports. The Norwegian government has communicated that Norwegian gas production will increase by 25-40% from today's level of about 99 billion cubic meters (bcm)/year. This article shows that only a 20-25% growth of Norwegian gas production is possible due to production from currently existing recoverable reserves and contingent resources. A high and a low production forecast for Norwegian gas production is presented. Norwegian gas production exported by pipeline peaks between 2015 and 2016, with minimum peak production in 2015 at 118Â bcm/year and maximum peak production at 127Â bcm/year in 2016. By 2030 the pipeline export levels are 94-78Â bcm. Total Norwegian gas production peaks between 2015 and 2020, with peak production at 124-135Â bcm/year. By 2030 the production is 96-115Â bcm/year. The results show that there is a limited potential for increased gas exports from Norway to the EU and that Norwegian gas production is declining by 2030 in all scenarios. Annual Norwegian pipeline gas exports to the EU, by 2030, may even be 20Â bcm lower than today's level.

Suggested Citation

  • Söderbergh, Bengt & Jakobsson, Kristofer & Aleklett, Kjell, 2009. "European energy security: The future of Norwegian natural gas production," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5037-5055, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:37:y:2009:i:12:p:5037-5055
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301-4215(09)00509-6
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jakobsson, Kristofer & Söderbergh, Bengt & Höök, Mikael & Aleklett, Kjell, 2009. "How reasonable are oil production scenarios from public agencies?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4809-4818, November.
    2. Stern, Jonathan, 2005. "The Future of Russian Gas and Gazprom," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780197300312.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. P. Hammond, Geoffrey & O' Grady, Áine, 2017. "The life cycle greenhouse gas implications of a UK gas supply transformation on a future low carbon electricity sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 937-949.
    2. Holz, Franziska & Brauers, Hanna & Richter, Philipp M. & Roobeek, Thorsten, 2017. "Shaking Dutch grounds won’t shatter the European gas market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 520-529.
    3. Christian Growitsch & Harald Hecking & Timo Panke, 2014. "Supply Disruptions and Regional Price Effects in a Spatial Oligopoly—An Application to the Global Gas Market," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(5), pages 944-975, November.
    4. Söderbergh, Bengt & Jakobsson, Kristofer & Aleklett, Kjell, 2010. "European energy security: An analysis of future Russian natural gas production and exports," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(12), pages 7827-7843, December.
    5. Bey, M. & Hamidat, A. & Benyoucef, B. & Nacer, T., 2016. "Viability study of the use of grid connected photovoltaic system in agriculture: Case of Algerian dairy farms," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 333-345.
    6. Berk, Istemi & Schulte, Simon, 2017. "Turkey's Role in Natural Gas - Becoming a Transit Country?," EWI Working Papers 2017-1, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI), revised 27 Jan 2017.
    7. Hallack, Larissa Nogueira & Szklo, Alexandre, 2019. "Assessing the exploratory potential in Brazil by applying a creaming curve variant," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 672-683.
    8. Menegaki, Angeliki N. & Tsagarakis, Konstantinos P., 2015. "Rich enough to go renewable, but too early to leave fossil energy?," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 1465-1477.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Rawi Abdelal, 2013. "The profits of power: Commerce and realpolitik in Eurasia," Review of International Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(3), pages 421-456, June.
    2. Catherine Locatelli, 2013. "Les voies de la réforme du secteur gazier russe," Post-Print halshs-00822857, HAL.
    3. Finon, Dominique & Locatelli, Catherine, 2008. "Russian and European gas interdependence: Could contractual trade channel geopolitics?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 423-442, January.
    4. Le Boulzec, Hugo & Delannoy, Louis & Andrieu, Baptiste & Verzier, François & Vidal, Olivier & Mathy, Sandrine, 2022. "Dynamic modeling of global fossil fuel infrastructure and materials needs: Overcoming a lack of available data," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 326(C).
    5. Orlov, Anton, 2015. "An assessment of optimal gas pricing in Russia: A CGE approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 492-506.
    6. Warrilow, David, 2015. "A bumpy road to the top: Statistically defining a peak in oil production," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 81-84.
    7. Marina Tsygankova, 2007. "The Export of Russian Gas to Europe: Breaking Up the Monopoly of Gazprom," Energy and Environmental Modeling 2007 24000062, EcoMod.
    8. Marina Tsygankova, 2008. "Netback pricing as a remedy for the Russian gas deficit," Discussion Papers 554, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    9. Lloyd, Bob & Forest, Andrew S., 2010. "The transition to renewables: Can PV provide an answer to the peak oil and climate change challenges?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(11), pages 7378-7394, November.
    10. Edoardo Lelli, 2009. "Black Gold and Blue Gold: The Importance of Energy in the New Power Policy of the Russian Federation," Transition Studies Review, Springer;Central Eastern European University Network (CEEUN), vol. 15(4), pages 746-758, February.
    11. Bazhanov, A., 2011. "The Dependence of the Potential Sustainability of a Resource Economy on the Initial State: a Comparison of Models Using the Example of Russian Oil Extraction," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, issue 12, pages 77-100.
    12. Marina Tsygankova, 2007. "When is Mighty Gazprom Good for Russia?," Discussion Papers 526, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    13. Hubert Franz & Cobanli Onur, 2015. "Pipeline Power: A Case Study of Strategic Network Investments," Review of Network Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 14(2), pages 75-110, June.
    14. Eirik Lund Sagen & Marina Tsygankova, 2006. "Russian Natural Gas Exports to Europe. Effects of Russian gas market reforms and the rising market power of Gazprom," Discussion Papers 445, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    15. Yuri Yegorov & Franz Wirl, 2008. "Energy relations between Russia and EU with emphasis on natural gas," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 32(4), pages 301-322, December.
    16. Dominique Finon & Catherine Locatelli, 2008. "Russian and European gas interdependence. Can market forces balance out geopolitics?," Post-Print halshs-00129618, HAL.
    17. Delannoy, Louis & Longaretti, Pierre-Yves & Murphy, David J. & Prados, Emmanuel, 2021. "Peak oil and the low-carbon energy transition: A net-energy perspective," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
    18. Dorigoni, Susanna & Graziano, Clara & Pontoni, Federico, 2010. "Can LNG increase competitiveness in the natural gas market?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(12), pages 7653-7664, December.
    19. Dominique Finon & Catherine Locatelli, 2006. "L'interdépendance gazière de la Russie et de l'Union européenne : quel équilibre entre le marché et la géopolitique ?," Post-Print halshs-00119602, HAL.
    20. Tsygankova, Marina, 2012. "An evaluation of alternative scenarios for the Gazprom monopoly of Russian gas exports," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 153-161.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:37:y:2009:i:12:p:5037-5055. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.