IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/enepol/v36y2008i8p3026-3034.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A decision support tool for the analysis of pricing, investment and regulatory processes in a decentralized electricity market

Author

Listed:
  • Pasaoglu Kilanc, Guzay
  • Or, Ilhan

Abstract

After the liberalization of the electricity generation industry, capacity expansion decisions are made by multiple self-oriented power companies. Unlike the centralized environment, decision-making of market participants is now guided by price signal feedbacks and by an imperfect foresight of the future market conditions (and competitor actions) that they will face. In such an environment, decision makers need to better understand long-term dynamics of the supply and demand sides of the power market. In this study, a system dynamics model is developed, to better understand and analyze the decentralized and competitive electricity market dynamics in the long run. The developed simulation model oversees a 20-year planning horizon; it includes a demand module, a capacity expansion module, a power generation module, an accounting and finance module, various competitors, a regulatory body and a bidding mechanism. Many features, singularities and tools of decentralized markets, such as; capacity withholding, enforced divestment, long-term contracts, price-elastic demands, incentives/disincentives, are also incorporated into the model. Public regulators and power companies are potential users of the model, for learning and decision support in policy design and strategic planning. Results of scenario analysis are presented to illustrate potential use of the model.

Suggested Citation

  • Pasaoglu Kilanc, Guzay & Or, Ilhan, 2008. "A decision support tool for the analysis of pricing, investment and regulatory processes in a decentralized electricity market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 3026-3034, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:36:y:2008:i:8:p:3026-3034
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301-4215(08)00170-5
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Joshua S. Gans & Danny Price & Kim Woods, 1998. "Contracts and Electricity Pool Prices," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 23(1), pages 83-96, June.
    2. Bunn, Derek W. & Larsen, Erik R., 1992. "Sensitivity of reserve margin to factors influencing investment behaviour in the electricity market of England and Wales," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 420-429, May.
    3. Ford, Andrew, 1999. "Cycles in competitive electricity markets: a simulation study of the western United States," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(11), pages 637-658, October.
    4. Dyner, Isaac & Larsen, Erik R., 2001. "From planning to strategy in the electricity industry," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(13), pages 1145-1154, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Edward G. Anderson & David R. Keith & Jose Lopez, 2023. "Opportunities for system dynamics research in operations management for public policy," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 32(6), pages 1895-1920, June.
    2. Shahmohammadi, M. Sadegh & Mohd. Yusuff, Rosnah & Keyhanian, Sina & Shakouri G., Hamed, 2015. "A decision support system for evaluating effects of Feed-in Tariff mechanism: Dynamic modeling of Malaysia’s electricity generation mix," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 217-229.
    3. Hasani, Masoud & Hosseini, Seyed Hamid, 2011. "Dynamic assessment of capacity investment in electricity market considering complementary capacity mechanisms," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 277-293.
    4. Hasani-Marzooni, Masoud & Hosseini, Seyed Hamid, 2011. "Dynamic model for market-based capacity investment decision considering stochastic characteristic of wind power," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 2205-2219.
    5. Pasaoglu, Guzay & Harrison, Gillian & Jones, Lee & Hill, Andrew & Beaudet, Alexandre & Thiel, Christian, 2016. "A system dynamics based market agent model simulating future powertrain technology transition: Scenarios in the EU light duty vehicle road transport sector," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 133-146.
    6. Hsiao, Chih-Tung & Liu, Chung-Shu & Chang, Dong-Shang & Chen, Chun-Cheng, 2018. "Dynamic modeling of the policy effect and development of electric power systems: A case in Taiwan," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 377-387.
    7. Hasani-Marzooni, Masoud & Hosseini, Seyed Hamid, 2013. "Dynamic analysis of various investment incentives and regional capacity assignment in Iranian electricity market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 271-284.
    8. Sommerfeldt, Nelson & Madani, Hatef, 2017. "Revisiting the techno-economic analysis process for building-mounted, grid-connected solar photovoltaic systems: Part one – Review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 1379-1393.
    9. Armin Leopold, 2016. "Energy related system dynamic models: a literature review," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 24(1), pages 231-261, March.
    10. Pasaoglu, Güzay, 2011. "Using the decentralized and liberalized electricity market microworld (LEMM) as an educational tool," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 187-199, January.
    11. Koltsaklis, Nikolaos E. & Dagoumas, Athanasios S., 2018. "State-of-the-art generation expansion planning: A review," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 230(C), pages 563-589.
    12. Qudrat-Ullah, Hassan, 2013. "Understanding the dynamics of electricity generation capacity in Canada: A system dynamics approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 285-294.
    13. Nakajima, Tadahiro & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2010. "Change in consumer sensitivity to electricity prices in response to retail deregulation: A panel empirical analysis of the residential demand for electricity in the United States," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 2470-2476, May.
    14. Teufel, Felix & Miller, Michael & Genoese, Massimo & Fichtner, Wolf, 2013. "Review of System Dynamics models for electricity market simulations," Working Paper Series in Production and Energy 2, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Institute for Industrial Production (IIP).
    15. Ahmad, Salman & Tahar, Razman Mat & Muhammad-Sukki, Firdaus & Munir, Abu Bakar & Rahim, Ruzairi Abdul, 2015. "Role of feed-in tariff policy in promoting solar photovoltaic investments in Malaysia: A system dynamics approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 808-815.
    16. Blumberga, Dagnija & Blumberga, Andra & Barisa, Aiga & Rosa, Marika & Lauka, Dace, 2016. "Modelling the Latvian power market to evaluate its environmental long-term performance," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 1593-1600.
    17. Ahmad, Salman & Mat Tahar, Razman & Muhammad-Sukki, Firdaus & Munir, Abu Bakar & Abdul Rahim, Ruzairi, 2016. "Application of system dynamics approach in electricity sector modelling: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 29-37.
    18. Martínez-Jaramillo, Juan Esteban & van Ackere, Ann & Larsen, Erik R., 2022. "Transitioning towards a 100% solar-hydro based generation: A system dynamic approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PD).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ford, Andrew, 2001. "Waiting for the boom: : a simulation study of power plant construction in California," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(11), pages 847-869, September.
    2. Hasani, Masoud & Hosseini, Seyed Hamid, 2011. "Dynamic assessment of capacity investment in electricity market considering complementary capacity mechanisms," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 277-293.
    3. Pasaoglu, Güzay, 2011. "Using the decentralized and liberalized electricity market microworld (LEMM) as an educational tool," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 187-199, January.
    4. Osorio, Sebastian & van Ackere, Ann & Larsen, Erik R., 2017. "Interdependencies in security of electricity supply," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 598-609.
    5. Hasani-Marzooni, Masoud & Hosseini, Seyed Hamid, 2011. "Dynamic model for market-based capacity investment decision considering stochastic characteristic of wind power," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 2205-2219.
    6. Arango, Santiago, 2007. "Simulation of alternative regulations in the Colombian electricity market," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 305-319, December.
    7. Gencer, Busra & Larsen, Erik Reimer & van Ackere, Ann, 2020. "Understanding the coevolution of electricity markets and regulation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    8. Ibanez-Lopez, A.S. & Martinez-Val, J.M. & Moratilla-Soria, B.Y., 2017. "A dynamic simulation model for assessing the overall impact of incentive policies on power system reliability, costs and environment," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 170-188.
    9. Saysel, Ali Kerem & Hekimoğlu, Mustafa, 2013. "Exploring the options for carbon dioxide mitigation in Turkish electric power industry: System dynamics approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 675-686.
    10. Arango-Aramburo, Santiago & Bernal-García, Sebastián & Larsen, Erik R., 2021. "Renewable energy sources and the cycles in deregulated electricity markets," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 223(C).
    11. Arango, Santiago & Larsen, Erik, 2011. "Cycles in deregulated electricity markets: Empirical evidence from two decades," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 2457-2466, May.
    12. Arango, Santiago & Dyner, Isaac & Larsen, Erik R., 2006. "Lessons from deregulation: Understanding electricity markets in South America," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 196-207, September.
    13. Teufel, Felix & Miller, Michael & Genoese, Massimo & Fichtner, Wolf, 2013. "Review of System Dynamics models for electricity market simulations," Working Paper Series in Production and Energy 2, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Institute for Industrial Production (IIP).
    14. Varma, Rashmi & Sushil,, 2019. "Bridging the electricity demand and supply gap using dynamic modeling in the Indian context," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 515-535.
    15. Herrera, Milton M. & Dyner, Isaac & Cosenz, Federico, 2020. "Benefits from energy policy synchronisation of Brazil’s North-Northeast interconnection," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 427-437.
    16. Hasani-Marzooni, Masoud & Hosseini, Seyed Hamid, 2013. "Dynamic analysis of various investment incentives and regional capacity assignment in Iranian electricity market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 271-284.
    17. van Ackere, Ann & Ruud, Morten & Davidsen, Paal, 2005. "Managing a reservoir-based hydro-energy plant: building understanding in the buy and sell decisions in a changing environment," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 939-947, May.
    18. Ruben Bibas & Aurélie Méjean, 2014. "Potential and limitations of bioenergy for low carbon transitions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 123(3), pages 731-761, April.
    19. Andrew Ford, 2002. "Boom and Bust in Power Plant Construction: Lessons from the California Electricity Crisis," Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 59-74, June.
    20. Ibanez-Lopez, A.S. & Moratilla-Soria, B.Y., 2017. "An assessment of Spain's new alternative energy support framework and its long-term impact on wind power development and system costs through behavioral dynamic simulation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 629-646.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:36:y:2008:i:8:p:3026-3034. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.