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The economic benefit of short-term forecasting for wind energy in the UK electricity market

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  • Barthelmie, R.J.
  • Murray, F.
  • Pryor, S.C.

Abstract

In the UK market, the total price of renewable electricity is made up of the Renewables Obligation Certificate and the price achieved for the electricity. Accurate forecasting improves the price if electricity is traded via the power exchange. In order to understand the size of wind farm for which short-term forecasting becomes economically viable, we develop a model for wind energy. Simulations were carried out for 2003 electricity prices for different forecast accuracies and strategies. The results indicate that it is possible to increase the price obtained by around £5/MWh which is about 14% of the electricity price in 2003 and about 6% of the total price. We show that the economic benefit of using short-term forecasting is also dependant on the accuracy and cost of purchasing the forecast. As the amount of wind energy requiring integration into the grid increases, short-term forecasting becomes more important to both wind farm owners and the transmission/distribution operators.

Suggested Citation

  • Barthelmie, R.J. & Murray, F. & Pryor, S.C., 2008. "The economic benefit of short-term forecasting for wind energy in the UK electricity market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 1687-1696, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:36:y:2008:i:5:p:1687-1696
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    2. Aurore Dupré & Philippe Drobinski & Jordi Badosa & Christian Briard & Peter Tankov, 2020. "The Economic Value of Wind Energy Nowcasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(20), pages 1-20, October.
    3. Cheng, William Y.Y. & Liu, Yubao & Bourgeois, Alfred J. & Wu, Yonghui & Haupt, Sue Ellen, 2017. "Short-term wind forecast of a data assimilation/weather forecasting system with wind turbine anemometer measurement assimilation," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 340-351.
    4. Hoolohan, Victoria & Tomlin, Alison S. & Cockerill, Timothy, 2018. "Improved near surface wind speed predictions using Gaussian process regression combined with numerical weather predictions and observed meteorological data," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 1043-1054.
    5. Kannan, R., 2009. "Uncertainties in key low carbon power generation technologies - Implication for UK decarbonisation targets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(10), pages 1873-1886, October.
    6. Erik Heilmann & Janosch Henze & Heike Wetzel, 2021. "Machine learning in energy forecasts with an application to high frequency electricity consumption data," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202135, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    7. Mahmoud, Tawfek & Dong, Z.Y. & Ma, Jin, 2018. "An advanced approach for optimal wind power generation prediction intervals by using self-adaptive evolutionary extreme learning machine," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 254-269.
    8. Li, Gong & Shi, Jing, 2012. "Agent-based modeling for trading wind power with uncertainty in the day-ahead wholesale electricity markets of single-sided auctions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 13-22.
    9. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Popp, Stephan, 2009. "Can the electricity market be characterised by asymmetric behaviour?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4364-4372, November.
    10. Ruhnau, Oliver & Hennig, Patrick & Madlener, Reinhard, 2015. "Economic Implications of Enhanced Forecast Accuracy: The Case of Photovoltaic Feed-In Forecasts," FCN Working Papers 6/2015, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
    11. Charakopoulos, Avraam & Karakasidis, Theodoros & Sarris, loannis, 2019. "Pattern identification for wind power forecasting via complex network and recurrence plot time series analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    12. Ruhnau, Oliver & Hennig, Patrick & Madlener, Reinhard, 2020. "Economic implications of forecasting electricity generation from variable renewable energy sources," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 1318-1327.
    13. Derek W. Bunn & Angelica Gianfreda & Stefan Kermer, 2018. "A Trading-Based Evaluation of Density Forecasts in a Real-Time Electricity Market," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-13, October.
    14. Ahmed, Adil & Khalid, Muhammad, 2019. "A review on the selected applications of forecasting models in renewable power systems," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 9-21.
    15. Notton, Gilles & Nivet, Marie-Laure & Voyant, Cyril & Paoli, Christophe & Darras, Christophe & Motte, Fabrice & Fouilloy, Alexis, 2018. "Intermittent and stochastic character of renewable energy sources: Consequences, cost of intermittence and benefit of forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 96-105.
    16. Jiang, Yu & Song, Zhe & Kusiak, Andrew, 2013. "Very short-term wind speed forecasting with Bayesian structural break model," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 637-647.
    17. David Schönheit & Dominik Möst, 2019. "The Effect of Offshore Wind Capacity Expansion on Uncertainties in Germany’s Day-Ahead Wind Energy Forecasts," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(13), pages 1-23, July.
    18. Pryor, S.C. & Barthelmie, R.J., 2010. "Climate change impacts on wind energy: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 430-437, January.
    19. Barthelmie, R.J. & Pryor, S.C., 2013. "An overview of data for wake model evaluation in the Virtual Wakes Laboratory," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 834-844.
    20. Sun, Shaolong & Qiao, Han & Wei, Yunjie & Wang, Shouyang, 2017. "A new dynamic integrated approach for wind speed forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 197(C), pages 151-162.
    21. Rahimiyan, Morteza & Morales, Juan M. & Conejo, Antonio J., 2011. "Evaluating alternative offering strategies for wind producers in a pool," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(12), pages 4918-4926.

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