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Expectations and drivers of future greenhouse gas emissions from Canada's oil sands: An expert elicitation

Author

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  • McKellar, Jennifer M.
  • Sleep, Sylvia
  • Bergerson, Joule A.
  • MacLean, Heather L.

Abstract

The greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions intensity of oil sands operations has declined over time but has not offset absolute emissions growth due to rapidly increasing production. Policy making, decisions about research and development, and stakeholder discourse should be informed by an assessment of future emissions intensity trends, however informed projections are not easily generated. This study investigates expected trends in oil sands GHG emissions using expert elicitation. Thirteen experts participated in a survey, providing quantitative estimates of expected GHG emissions intensity changes and qualitative identifications of drivers. Experts generally agree that emissions intensity reductions are expected at commercially operating projects by 2033, with the greatest reductions expected through the use of technology in the in situ area of oil sands activity (40% mean reduction at multiple projects, averaged across experts). Incremental process changes are expected to contribute less to reducing GHG emissions intensity, however their potentially lower risk and cost may result in larger cumulative reductions. Both technology availability and more stringent GHG mitigation policies are required to realize these emissions intensity reductions. This paper demonstrates a method to increase rigour in emissions forecasting activities and the results can inform policy making, research and development and modelling and forecasting studies.

Suggested Citation

  • McKellar, Jennifer M. & Sleep, Sylvia & Bergerson, Joule A. & MacLean, Heather L., 2017. "Expectations and drivers of future greenhouse gas emissions from Canada's oil sands: An expert elicitation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 162-169.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:100:y:2017:i:c:p:162-169
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2016.10.014
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Charlotte Y. Stanton & Katharine J. Mach & Peter A. Turner & Seth J. Lalonde & Daniel L. Sanchez & Christopher B. Field, 2018. "Managing cropland and rangeland for climate mitigation: an expert elicitation on soil carbon in California," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 147(3), pages 633-646, April.
    2. Teti, Emanuele & Dallocchio, Maurizio & De Sanctis, Daniele, 2020. "Effects of oil price fall on the betas in the Unconventional Oil & Gas Industry," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    3. Si, Minxing & Bai, Ling & Du, Ke, 2021. "Fuel consumption analysis and cap and trade system evaluation for Canadian in situ oil sands extraction," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    4. Radpour, Saeidreza & Gemechu, Eskinder & Ahiduzzaman, Md & Kumar, Amit, 2021. "Development of a framework for the assessment of the market penetration of novel in situ bitumen extraction technologies," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).

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