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Installation entries and exits in the EU ETS: patterns and the delay effect of closure provisions

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  • Verde, Stefano F.
  • Graf, Christoph
  • Jong, Thijs

Abstract

This paper analyses installation entries and exits in the EU ETS, over 2005–2013. Patterns of entries and exits are identified across countries, sectors, and time. The limitations of the EUTL as a data source for research purposes mean that only genuine exits (reflecting production capacity reduction), and not genuine entries (reflecting production capacity increases), can be systematically identified. Exits are found to be relatively frequent events, more so in manufacturing sectors with small average installation size. Moreover, exits were concentrated in 2007 and in 2012, the final years of Phase I and Phase II. We investigate whether the perverse incentives of closure provisions, in free allocation, explain such time pattern. A discrete-time hazard model for the exit event is estimated using a three-tier dataset combining installation-, firm-, and macro-level information. The results indicate that, most likely, closure provisions delayed installation exits, especially in Phase II.

Suggested Citation

  • Verde, Stefano F. & Graf, Christoph & Jong, Thijs, 2019. "Installation entries and exits in the EU ETS: patterns and the delay effect of closure provisions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 508-524.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:78:y:2019:i:c:p:508-524
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2018.11.032
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    4. Basaglia, Piero & Isaksen, Elisabeth & Sato, Misato, 2024. "Carbon pricing, compensation and competitiveness: lessons from UK manufacturing," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 122364, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • H32 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Firm
    • L51 - Industrial Organization - - Regulation and Industrial Policy - - - Economics of Regulation
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy

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