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Effects of long-term climate change on global building energy expenditures

Author

Listed:
  • Clarke, Leon
  • Eom, Jiyong
  • Marten, Elke Hodson
  • Horowitz, Russell
  • Kyle, Page
  • Link, Robert
  • Mignone, Bryan K.
  • Mundra, Anupriya
  • Zhou, Yuyu

Abstract

This paper explores potential future implications of climate change on building energy expenditures around the globe. Increasing expenditures result from increased electricity use for cooling, and are offset to varying degrees, depending on the region, by decreased energy consumption for heating. The analysis is conducted using a model of the global buildings sector within the GCAM integrated assessment model. The integrated assessment framework is valuable because it represents socioeconomic and energy system changes that will be important for understanding building energy expenditures in the future. Results indicate that changes in net expenditures are not uniform across the globe. Net expenditures decrease in some regions, such as Canada and Russia, where heating demands currently dominate, and increase the most in areas with less demand for space heating and greater demand for space cooling. We explain these results in terms of the basic drivers that link building energy expenditures to regional climate.

Suggested Citation

  • Clarke, Leon & Eom, Jiyong & Marten, Elke Hodson & Horowitz, Russell & Kyle, Page & Link, Robert & Mignone, Bryan K. & Mundra, Anupriya & Zhou, Yuyu, 2018. "Effects of long-term climate change on global building energy expenditures," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 667-677.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:72:y:2018:i:c:p:667-677
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2018.01.003
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    7. Bass, Brett & New, Joshua, 2023. "How will United States commercial building energy use be impacted by IPCC climate scenarios?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PE).
    8. Elizabeth Kopits & Daniel Kraynak & Bryan Parthum & Lisa Rennels & David Smith & Elizabeth Spink & Joseph Perla & Nshan Burns, 2025. "Economic Impacts of Climate Change in the United States: Integrating and Harmonizing Evidence from Recent Studies," Papers 2509.00212, arXiv.org.
    9. Zhang, Bin & Niu, Niu & Li, Hao & Wang, Zhaohua, 2023. "Assessing the efforts of coal phaseout for carbon neutrality in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 352(C).
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    11. Burleyson, Casey D. & Khan, Zarrar & Kulshresta, Misha & Voisin, Nathalie & Zhao, Mengqi & Rice, Jennie S., 2025. "When do different scenarios of projected electricity demand start to meaningfully diverge?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 380(C).
    12. Nikolaos Efthimiou & Thomas Giotis & Athanasios Ragkos, 2025. "Applications for Non-Conventional Water Resources in the Mediterranean Basin: A Literature Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(11), pages 1-30, May.
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    14. Iyke, Bernard Njindan, 2024. "Climate change, energy security risk, and clean energy investment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    15. Edelenbosch, OY & Rovelli, D & Levesque, A & Marangoni, G & Tavoni, M, 2021. "Long term, cross-country effects of buildings insulation policies," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    16. Nnaemeka Vincent Emodi & Taha Chaiechi & ABM Rabiul Alam Beg, 2018. "The impact of climate change on electricity demand in Australia," Energy & Environment, , vol. 29(7), pages 1263-1297, November.
    17. Daniel C. Steinberg & Bryan K. Mignone & Jordan Macknick & Yinong Sun & Kelly Eurek & Andrew Badger & Ben Livneh & Kristen Averyt, 2020. "Decomposing supply-side and demand-side impacts of climate change on the US electricity system through 2050," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 158(2), pages 125-139, January.
    18. Francesco Pietro Colelli & Johannes Emmerling & Giacomo Marangoni & Malcolm N. Mistry & Enrica Cian, 2022. "Increased energy use for adaptation significantly impacts mitigation pathways," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-12, December.
    19. Kevin Rennert & Brian C. Prest & William A. Pizer & Richard G. Newell & David Anthoff & Cora Kingdon & Lisa Rennels & Roger Cooke & Adrian E. Raftery & Hana Sevcikova & Frank Errickson, 2021. "The Social Cost of Carbon: Advances in Long-Term Probabilistic Projections of Population, GDP, Emissions, and Discount Rates," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 52(2 (Fall)), pages 223-305.
    20. Francisco Ralston Fonseca & Paulina Jaramillo & Mario Bergés & Edson Severnini, 2019. "Seasonal effects of climate change on intra-day electricity demand patterns," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 154(3), pages 435-451, June.

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    JEL classification:

    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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