IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/streco/v74y2025icp970-990.html

Unequal impacts of temperature deviations on poverty:International Evidence

Author

Listed:
  • Zhang, Huiming
  • Zhang, Aixin
  • Wu, Kai
  • Cai, Yinyin
  • Qiu, Yueming (Lucy)
  • Wang, Shouyang
  • Wang, Weiwei
  • Zhao, Yongfan

Abstract

Climate damages increase with the rising frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. Meanwhile, accumulation of temperature deviations also poses serious concerns because of its tremendous and divergent impacts on agricultural system, urbanization and socioeconomic conditions of the vulnerable population. We investigate how deviations from comfortable temperature ranges influence national poverty rates across 102 countries from 1987 to 2020. Using an innovative temperature deviation index and a panel dataset, we find a negative association between temperature deviation and national poverty rate, significant only in cooler regions. Agricultural output and urbanization account for 24 % and 29 % of this effect, respectively. Projections suggest the global poverty rate may decrease to 15.66 %-16.21 % by 2060, despite environmental stress. Our findings challenge the notion that climate change uniformly exacerbates poverty, highlighting the need for tailored adaptation strategies and policies that consider both risks and potential benefits of changing temperature patterns.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhang, Huiming & Zhang, Aixin & Wu, Kai & Cai, Yinyin & Qiu, Yueming (Lucy) & Wang, Shouyang & Wang, Weiwei & Zhao, Yongfan, 2025. "Unequal impacts of temperature deviations on poverty:International Evidence," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 970-990.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:streco:v:74:y:2025:i:c:p:970-990
    DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.07.001
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0954349X25001158
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.strueco.2025.07.001?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2010. "Climate Shocks and Exports," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 454-459, May.
    2. Azzarri, Carlo & Signorelli, Sara, 2020. "Climate and poverty in Africa South of the Sahara," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    3. Chen, Xiaoguang & Cui, Xiaomeng & Gao, Jing, 2023. "Differentiated agricultural sensitivity and adaptability to rising temperatures across regions and sectors in China," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    4. Marshall Burke & Solomon M. Hsiang & Edward Miguel, 2015. "Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production," Nature, Nature, vol. 527(7577), pages 235-239, November.
    5. McMillan, Margaret & Rodrik, Dani & Verduzco-Gallo, Íñigo, 2014. "Globalization, Structural Change, and Productivity Growth, with an Update on Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 11-32.
    6. Ed Day & Sam Fankhauser & Nick Kingsmill & Hélia Costa & Anna Mavrogianni, 2019. "Upholding labour productivity under climate change: an assessment of adaptation options," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(3), pages 367-385, March.
    7. Foster, James & Greer, Joel & Thorbecke, Erik, 1984. "A Class of Decomposable Poverty Measures," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(3), pages 761-766, May.
    8. Isaac, Morna & van Vuuren, Detlef P., 2009. "Modeling global residential sector energy demand for heating and air conditioning in the context of climate change," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 507-521, February.
    9. Joshua Graff Zivin & Matthew Neidell, 2014. "Temperature and the Allocation of Time: Implications for Climate Change," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 32(1), pages 1-26.
    10. Chang, Jun-Jie & Mi, Zhifu & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2023. "Temperature and GDP: A review of climate econometrics analysis," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 383-392.
    11. Clarke, Leon & Eom, Jiyong & Marten, Elke Hodson & Horowitz, Russell & Kyle, Page & Link, Robert & Mignone, Bryan K. & Mundra, Anupriya & Zhou, Yuyu, 2018. "Effects of long-term climate change on global building energy expenditures," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 667-677.
    12. Marshall Burke & Kyle Emerick, 2016. "Adaptation to Climate Change: Evidence from US Agriculture," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 8(3), pages 106-140, August.
    13. Katrina Jessoe & Dale T. Manning & J. Edward Taylor, 2018. "Climate Change and Labour Allocation in Rural Mexico: Evidence from Annual Fluctuations in Weather," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 128(608), pages 230-261.
    14. Olivier Deschênes & Enrico Moretti, 2009. "Extreme Weather Events, Mortality, and Migration," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 91(4), pages 659-681, November.
    15. Stephane Hallegatte & Julie Rozenberg, 2017. "Climate change through a poverty lens," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 7(4), pages 250-256, April.
    16. E. Somanathan & Rohini Somanathan & Anant Sudarshan & Meenu Tewari, 2021. "The Impact of Temperature on Productivity and Labor Supply: Evidence from Indian Manufacturing," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 129(6), pages 1797-1827.
    17. Lyu, Zhuoyang & Yu, Li & Liu, Chen & Ma, Tiemeng, 2024. "When temperatures matter: Extreme heat and labor share," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    18. Pardo, Angel & Meneu, Vicente & Valor, Enric, 2002. "Temperature and seasonality influences on Spanish electricity load," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 55-70, January.
    19. Edward B Barbier & Jacob P Hochard, 2018. "The Impacts of Climate Change on the Poor in Disadvantaged Regions," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 12(1), pages 26-47.
    20. Achyuta Adhvaryu & Namrata Kala & Anant Nyshadham, 2020. "The Light and the Heat: Productivity Co-Benefits of Energy-Saving Technology," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(4), pages 779-792, October.
    21. Wu, Shu & Hu, Fangfang & Zhang, Zhijian, 2025. "Climate change and energy poverty: Evidence from China," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 186(C).
    22. Olivier Deschênes & Michael Greenstone, 2007. "The Economic Impacts of Climate Change: Evidence from Agricultural Output and Random Fluctuations in Weather," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 354-385, March.
    23. Jawad M Addoum & David T Ng & Ariel Ortiz-Bobea & Harrison Hong, 2020. "Temperature Shocks and Establishment Sales," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(3), pages 1331-1366.
    24. Budong Qian & Sam Gameda & Xuebin Zhang & Reinder Jong, 2012. "Changing growing season observed in Canada," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 112(2), pages 339-353, May.
    25. Chen, Xiaoguang & Cui, Xiaomeng & Gao, Jing, 2023. "Differentiated Agricultural Sensitivity and Adaptability to Rising Temperatures across Regions and Sectors in China," 2023 Annual Meeting, July 23-25, Washington D.C. 335522, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    26. Felbermayr, Gabriel & Gröschl, Jasmin, 2014. "Naturally negative: The growth effects of natural disasters," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 92-106.
    27. Marc Helbling & Daniel Meierrieks, 2023. "Global warming and urbanization," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 36(3), pages 1187-1223, July.
    28. Nie, Peng & Li, Qiaoge & Sousa-Poza, Alfonso, 2021. "Energy poverty and subjective well-being in China: New evidence from the China Family Panel Studies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    29. Zhang, Chao & Guan, Jiancheng, 2021. "Returnee policies in China: Does a strategy of alleviating the financing difficulty of returnee firms promote innovation?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    30. Fikru, Mahelet G. & Gautier, Luis, 2015. "The impact of weather variation on energy consumption in residential houses," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 19-30.
    31. repec:ags:aaea22:335522 is not listed on IDEAS
    32. Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2012. "Temperature Shocks and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Last Half Century," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 66-95, July.
    33. Skoufias, Emmanuel & Rabassa, Mariano & Olivieri, Sergio & Brahmbhatt, Milan, 2011. "The Poverty Impacts of Climate Change," World Bank - Economic Premise, The World Bank, issue 51, pages 1-5, March.
    34. Gao, Jianfeng & Mills, Bradford F., 2018. "Weather Shocks, Coping Strategies, and Consumption Dynamics in Rural Ethiopia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 268-283.
    35. Nora Pankratz & Rob Bauer & Jeroen Derwall, 2023. "Climate Change, Firm Performance, and Investor Surprises," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(12), pages 7352-7398, December.
    36. Fan, Jing-Li & Hu, Jia-Wei & Zhang, Xian, 2019. "Impacts of climate change on electricity demand in China: An empirical estimation based on panel data," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 880-888.
    37. V. Mueller & C. Gray & K. Kosec, 2014. "Heat stress increases long-term human migration in rural Pakistan," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 4(3), pages 182-185, March.
    38. Wei, Kai & Lin, Boqiang, 2025. "Do extreme temperatures exacerbate residential energy expenses burden in China?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    39. Skoufias, Emmanuel & Rabassa, Mariano & Olivieri, Sergio, 2011. "The poverty impacts of climate change : a review of the evidence," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5622, The World Bank.
    40. Li, Mengjie & Bai, Qianwen & Du, Weijian, 2025. "The world is different because of you: Global warming, technological progress and economic development," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 202-211.
    41. Burke, Marshall & Hsiang, Solomon M & Miguel, Edward, 2015. "Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt3g72r0zv, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    42. Philip Wollburg & Stephane Hallegatte & Daniel Gerszon Mahler, 2023. "Ending extreme poverty has a negligible impact on global greenhouse gas emissions," Nature, Nature, vol. 623(7989), pages 982-986, November.
    43. Cai, Yuqing, 2025. "How does climate change affect regional sustainable development? Empirical evidence from 186 countries around the world," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    44. Jonathan Colmer, 2021. "Temperature, Labor Reallocation, and Industrial Production: Evidence from India," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(4), pages 101-124, October.
    45. Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & James A. Robinson, 2002. "Reversal of Fortune: Geography and Institutions in the Making of the Modern World Income Distribution," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(4), pages 1231-1294.
    46. Winsemius, Hessel C. & Jongman, Brenden & Veldkamp, Ted I.E. & Hallegatte, Stephane & Bangalore, Mook & Ward, Philip J., 2018. "Disaster risk, climate change, and poverty: assessing the global exposure of poor people to floods and droughts," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(3), pages 328-348, June.
    47. Sovacool, Benjamin K. & Mukherjee, Ishani, 2011. "Conceptualizing and measuring energy security: A synthesized approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 5343-5355.
    48. Richard Black & Stephen R. G. Bennett & Sandy M. Thomas & John R. Beddington, 2011. "Migration as adaptation," Nature, Nature, vol. 478(7370), pages 447-449, October.
    49. Lehr, Jakob & Rehdanz, Katrin, 2024. "The effect of temperature on energy related CO2 emissions and economic performance in German industry," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    50. Li, Jianglong & Yang, Lisha & Long, Houyin, 2018. "Climatic impacts on energy consumption: Intensive and extensive margins," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 332-343.
    51. Katrina Jessoe & Dale T. Manning & J. Edward Taylor, 2018. "Climate Change and Labour Allocation in Rural Mexico: Evidence from Annual Fluctuations in Weather," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 128(608), pages 230-261, February.
    52. Henderson, J. Vernon & Storeygard, Adam & Deichmann, Uwe, 2017. "Has climate change driven urbanization in Africa?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 60-82.
    53. Maximilian Kotz & Leonie Wenz & Annika Stechemesser & Matthias Kalkuhl & Anders Levermann, 2021. "Day-to-day temperature variability reduces economic growth," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(4), pages 319-325, April.
    54. Shi, Han & Wang, Bo & Deng, Nana & Xu, Shuling & Wang, Zhaohua, 2025. "Examining energy poverty under high temperatures in China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    55. Xinshu Zhao & John G. Lynch & Qimei Chen, 2010. "Reconsidering Baron and Kenny: Myths and Truths about Mediation Analysis," Journal of Consumer Research, Journal of Consumer Research Inc., vol. 37(2), pages 197-206, August.
    56. Teevrat Garg & Maulik Jagnani & Vis Taraz, 2020. "Temperature and Human Capital in India," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 7(6), pages 1113-1150.
    57. Kalkuhl, Matthias & Wenz, Leonie, 2020. "The impact of climate conditions on economic production. Evidence from a global panel of regions," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    58. A. J. Challinor & J. Watson & D. B. Lobell & S. M. Howden & D. R. Smith & N. Chhetri, 2014. "A meta-analysis of crop yield under climate change and adaptation," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 4(4), pages 287-291, April.
    59. Manisha Shah & Bryce Millett Steinberg, 2017. "Drought of Opportunities: Contemporaneous and Long-Term Impacts of Rainfall Shocks on Human Capital," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 125(2), pages 527-561.
    60. Parker, David & Kirkpatrick, Colin & Figueira-Theodorakopoulou, Catarina, 2008. "Infrastructure regulation and poverty reduction in developing countries: A review of the evidence and a research agenda," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 177-188, May.
    61. Berardi, Umberto & Jafarpur, Pouriya, 2020. "Assessing the impact of climate change on building heating and cooling energy demand in Canada," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    62. Jun Rentschler & Melda Salhab & Bramka Arga Jafino, 2022. "Flood exposure and poverty in 188 countries," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    63. Liang, Yuchao & Tan, Qi & Pang, Jun, 2024. "Bless or curse, how does extreme temperature shape heavy pollution companies' ESG performance?-Evidence from China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cui, Xiaomeng & Gafarov, Bulat & Ghanem, Dalia & Kuffner, Todd, 2024. "On model selection criteria for climate change impact studies," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 239(1).
    2. Hai‐Anh H. Dang & Stephane Hallegatte & Trong‐Anh Trinh, 2024. "Does global warming worsen poverty and inequality? An updated review," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(5), pages 1873-1905, December.
    3. Tarsia, Romano, 2024. "Heterogeneous effects of weather shocks on firm economic performance," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 124251, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    4. Xie, Victoria Wenxin, 2024. "Labor market adjustment to extreme heat shocks: Evidence from Brazil," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 222(C), pages 266-283.
    5. Moustafa Feriga & Nancy Lozano Gracia & Pieter Serneels, 2025. "The Impact of Climate Change on Work: Lessons for Developing Countries," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 40(1), pages 104-146.
    6. Valenti, Giulia & Vona, Francesco, 2024. "Hot Wages: How Do Heat Waves Change the Earnings Distribution?," FEEM Working Papers 348848, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    7. Chengzheng Li & Zheng Pan, 2021. "How do extremely high temperatures affect labor market performance? Evidence from rural China," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(4), pages 2265-2291, October.
    8. Cascarano, Michele & Natoli, Filippo & Petrella, Andrea, 2025. "Entry, exit, and market structure in a changing climate," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    9. Lehr, Jakob & Rehdanz, Katrin, 2024. "The effect of temperature on energy related CO2 emissions and economic performance in German industry," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    10. Kaixing Huang & Qianqian Hong, 2024. "The impact of global warming on obesity," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 37(3), pages 1-32, September.
    11. Figari, Sebastián, 2025. "Climate change response: Input adjustment in agriculture," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    12. Brookes Gray, Harriet & Taraz, Vis & Halliday, Simon D., 2023. "The impact of weather shocks on employment outcomes: evidence from South Africa," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(3), pages 285-305, June.
    13. Lyu, Zhuoyang & Yu, Li & Liu, Chen & Ma, Tiemeng, 2024. "When temperatures matter: Extreme heat and labor share," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    14. Jaqueline Oliveira & Bruno Palialol & Paula Pereda, 2021. "Do temperature shocks affect non-agriculture wages in Brazil? Evidence from individual-level panel data," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2021_13, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    15. Huang, Kaixing & Zhao, Hong & Huang, Jikun & Wang, Jinxia & Findlay, Christopher, 2020. "The impact of climate change on the labor allocation: Empirical evidence from China," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    16. Jesús Arellano-González & Miriam Juárez-Torres, 2025. "Temperature and quarterly economic activity: panel data evidence from Mexico," Working Papers 2025-02, Banco de México.
    17. Dang,Hai-Anh H. & Nguyen,Minh Cong & Trinh,Trong-Anh, 2023. "Does Hotter Temperature Increase Poverty and Inequality ? Global Evidence from SubnationalData Analysis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10466, The World Bank.
    18. Long, Xianling & Wang, Zhiqiang, 2025. "From heat to high-tech: How innovation responds to climate change," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    19. Gilli, Martino & Calcaterra, Matteo & Emmerling, Johannes & Granella, Francesco, 2024. "Climate change impacts on the within-country income distributions," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    20. Oliver Schenker & Daniel Osberghaus, 2025. "International Trade and the Transmission of Temperature Shocks," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 88(4), pages 965-1007, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:streco:v:74:y:2025:i:c:p:970-990. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/525148 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.