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How will United States commercial building energy use be impacted by IPCC climate scenarios?

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  • Bass, Brett
  • New, Joshua

Abstract

Climate change and anthropogenically-forced shift of weather in the future will impact energy use and resilience of both the built environment and the electric grid. The aim of this analysis is to understand how future climate scenarios will impact electricity and natural gas use of commercial buildings in the United States. This study analyzes this impact for 2030, 2045, and 2100 using Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios defined in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Report 5. The large, gridded simulation of meteorological variables for RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 are selected and downscaled to make available hourly Future Meteorological Year (FMY) weather files for use and improvement in subsequent studies. High performance computing resources use these FMYs to simulate commercial prototype buildings in every American Society of Heating, Refrigeration, and Air Conditioning Engineers (ASHRAE) climate zone of the United States (US), and results are scaled to nation-wide energy use using conditioned floor area multipliers. The analysis is conducted without speculating the physical and performance traits of future buildings or the grid characteristics.

Suggested Citation

  • Bass, Brett & New, Joshua, 2023. "How will United States commercial building energy use be impacted by IPCC climate scenarios?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PE).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:263:y:2023:i:pe:s0360544222028316
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2022.125945
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    References listed on IDEAS

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