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The dynamics of fuel demand and illegal fuel activity in Turkey

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  • Yalta, A. Talha
  • Yalta, A. Yasemin

Abstract

We expose the dynamics of road fuel demand by employing maximum entropy resampling based interval estimates in a fixed width rolling window framework. Our approach facilitates using a uniform specification in a sequential procedure while also providing robust and efficient estimates that can evolve over time. Ours is also the first study to develop a method for estimating illegal fuel activity. To demonstrate our methodology, we use monthly data between 2003–2012 and focus on the demand for diesel and gasoline in Turkey. The results show estimated monthly illegal activity ranging between 5–23 million liters over the last six years.

Suggested Citation

  • Yalta, A. Talha & Yalta, A. Yasemin, 2016. "The dynamics of fuel demand and illegal fuel activity in Turkey," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 144-158.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:54:y:2016:i:c:p:144-158
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2015.11.026
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Energy demand; Gasoline; Diesel; Maximum entropy; Bootstrap; Turkey;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General

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