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The dynamics of fuel demand and illegal fuel activity in Turkey

Listed author(s):
  • Yalta, A. Talha
  • Yalta, A. Yasemin

We expose the dynamics of road fuel demand by employing maximum entropy resampling based interval estimates in a fixed width rolling window framework. Our approach facilitates using a uniform specification in a sequential procedure while also providing robust and efficient estimates that can evolve over time. Ours is also the first study to develop a method for estimating illegal fuel activity. To demonstrate our methodology, we use monthly data between 2003–2012 and focus on the demand for diesel and gasoline in Turkey. The results show estimated monthly illegal activity ranging between 5–23 million liters over the last six years.

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File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988315003564
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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Economics.

Volume (Year): 54 (2016)
Issue (Month): C ()
Pages: 144-158

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Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:54:y:2016:i:c:p:144-158
DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2015.11.026
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco

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